NBA Sports Marketwatch: Feb. 29

Sports Marketwatch
NBA Edition
Feb. 29, 2008 3:33 p.m. EST
By The Team at SportsInsights.com

Welcome to this week's edition of the Sports Marketwatch—NBA Edition, where the Team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread marketplace.

If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace! Initially, the NBA Edition of the Sports Marketwatch will be a weekly column published on Friday, normally by around 5 p.m., Eastern Time.
 
The staff at SportsInsights.com speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. We’ll take a look at what’s in store for today’s NBA games.

Sports Marketplace – NBA Edition

Recapping Last Week’s NBA Action

Last week, we went 1-1, with Charlotte “pushing,” as the Bobcats lost by one point in overtime. The Bulls won their game outright for our winning selection. However, the resurgent 76ers couldn’t get it done versus Orlando. Overall, the NBA Marketwatch is still under water—but is climbing back to respectability.

2007-08 NBA Games to Watch: 7-10-1 = 41.2%

*Source: SportsInsights.com

Sports Marketwatch 2/29/08 – Games to Watch

Sacramento Kings (+9.5) over Dallas Mavericks

As our readers know, we sometimes need bad teams to do good things against good teams. This matchup is shaping up to be one of those “Pepto Bismol” games. It’s not that Sacramento is that horrible; they are actually just below .500. However, Sacramento is a very weak 9-21 on the road—while Dallas is tied with Utah for the best record at home in the NBA this season!

Dallas is fighting for first place in its division and boasts an impressive 24-3 record at home. So why do we “like” Sacramento in this matchup? SportsInsights’ sports marketplace statistics show that with only 30% of the bets landing on the Kings, the line actually decreased from the opener of Sacramento +9.5 to Sacramento +9.

This is an indicator of “smart money” betting on Sacramento to stay close enough to Dallas—to cover the game. As usual, we’ll join the “smart money” and take the Kings at a “recent low” (they’ve lost three in a row) and “sell” the Mavs at a “home high.”

Sacramento Kings +9.5

Indiana Pacers (+10.5) over Toronto Raptors

At first glance, these teams look like they are headed in opposite directions. Toronto has won seven of its last 10 while Indy has lost seven of its last 10. Toronto is firmly established as a playoff contender while Indiana has dropped into a tie for last place in its division.

However, when you take a closer look, you can see that recent performance has magnified the differences between these two teams. That is, up until a few weeks ago, Indy was playing better than .400 ball while Toronto was just barely above .500. That makes us feel that getting double-digit points on Indy is a good value.

This game falls into our “buy low, sell high” value category. Let’s “buy” the Pacers at a “low” and “sell” the Raptors at a “high.” With only 30% of the bets coming in on Indy, the line increased from an opener of Indy +10 to Indy +10.5.

Indiana Pacers +10.5

Washington Wizards (+5.5) over Chicago Bulls

SportsInsights’ premium analytical tools helped us to circle this game. The sports marketplace shows that about 70% of the bets are coming in on the lowly Chicago Bulls. The “Public” may be fading the Wizards because of their recent poor play (dragging them below .500!).

However, we love taking the Wizards plus the points against an inferior Chicago Bulls team (playing only .400 ball due to a win in their last outing)! As usual, we’ll “Bet Against the Public”—and take the side of the sportsbooks.

Washington Wizards +5.5

Games to Watch: 7-10-1 = 41.2%

Sacramento Kings +9.5
Indiana Pacers +10.5
Washington Wizards +5.5

It should be another exciting weekend in the sports marketplace. Keep Sports Marketwatch's picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch—NBA Edition.

Enjoy the games!

The Team at SportsInsights.com