Fantasy Baseball 2012: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton Part of 6-Man Trade Breakdown

For the last few weeks, I've been monitoring Accuscore's projections for category leaders. But today, we'll use it to gauge the following the blockbuster trade proposal from a Twitter follower who shall remain nameless:

Matt Kemp/Coco Crisp/David Freese for Justin Upton/Felix Hernandez/Eric Hosmer

At first blush, this seems like a slam dunk for the Upton/Felix/Hosmer crowd, since that owner would net three top-45 players for one superstar, one 40-steals threat and a World Series hero who will likely come back to earth from his torrid start to this season (.429 BA, 3 HR, 10 RBI). But for this exercise, we'll solely rely on Accuscore and its thousands of daily game simulations to make the call:

Projections From April 12-Sept. 30

Team A
Kemp: 32.6 HRs, 106.8 RBI, 100.4 runs, 32.1 steals, .317 batting
Crisp: 8.5 HRs, 53.3 RBI, 73.1 runs, 50.4 steals, .254 batting
Freese: 16.9 HRs, 88.9 RBI, 66.2 runs, 1.6 steals, .323 batting

Team B
Upton: 24.9 HRs, 75 RBI, 92.7 runs, 19.1 steals, .285 batting
Hosmer: 23 HRs, 88.1 RBI, 79.4 runs, 13.5 steals, .286 batting
Hernandez: 12.7 wins, 2.97 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 207 strikeouts

 

Breakdown

1. Upton was the consensus No. 7-ranked outfielder during the preseason, whereas Kemp was firmly entrenched in the top three (with Ryan Braun and Jose Bautista); and yet, Accuscore portends a great disparity between Kemp and Upton. In all five categories, Kemp's the decisive winner.

2. On a per-player basis, Team A has the edge in batting (barely), steals (sizable) and RBI; with homers and runs, Team B gets the nod.

3. Obviously, it's hard to directly quantify Hernandez's effect on this trade without another pitcher in the mix. But three questions do arise:

• Why didn't Team A want a starting pitcher in return, perhaps a throw-in?
• Does Team A have the pitching to sustain a front-line loss like Hernandez?
• Assuming Team B selected a top-10 pitcher in the March/April draft, would the premium addition of King Felix (per-season averages of 15 wins/223 strikeouts from 2009-11) give him/her the best starting rotation in their respective league?

Verdict

Unless Team A is swimming with front-line aces and could only achieve perfect roster balance through the additions of Kemp, Crisp and Freese, I'd still want Upton/Hosmer/Hernandez in the blockbuster—although it's much closer than I could have imagined just 24 hours ago. In fact, this trade should serve both clubs for the whole season, barring injury.

Dare I call it a win-win for both parties?

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.