NBA Draft 2012: Why the Smart Money's on Jared Sullinger over Thomas Robinson

A new Chad Ford mock draft (Insider) is out today, and I was surprised to see Jared Sullinger (No. 8) ranked far below Thomas Robinson (No. 3).

Well, not surprised, but I'd favor taking the former over the latter. 

The margin between the players is slim, with both posting averages of roughly 17 points. Robinson has the rebounding advantage at 11.8 to 9.3, but Sullinger is a better outside shooter with a .400 mark on threes in his sophmore season. 

The shooting advantage is why I would choose Sully—that, and Jared's relative youth (a one-year difference separates the two). Both guys are undersized and hyper efficient, and I think scouts are going with Robinson on account of his athletic prowess.

To be sure, TR has quick feet and makes strong drives from the perimeter. He certainly looks to be the more dynamic NBA player when he gets into the lane, or when he's on the receiving end of an alley-oop. 

However, I worry about Robinson, who looks to be much shorter than his 6'10" listing. He has a swingman's body, no deep range and his physical talent hasn't translated in blocks, which is the traditional statistical reflection of big-man athleticism. He has a whiff of the dreaded "tweener" to him. 

Sullinger, with his three-point ability, looping hook-shot and Rock of Gibraltar butt, has the attributes to transcend an athleticism and size deficit. I'm not sure Thomas Robinson has enough athleticism to transcend a size deficit.