Dave's College Basketball Picks, Jan. 22: Purdue at Minnesota

No. 18 Purdue (14-2, 3-2) at No. 21 Minnesota (16-2, 4-2)

Line: Purdue -2

Purdue is coming off a 75-53 beatdown of Iowa that went pretty much how we predicted. Purdue was able to extend their defense and hold Iowa to 53 points. Purdue is now holding its opponents to 36.1 percent from the floor, which is best in the Big Ten.

Tied for fourth now in the league, things are starting to click for the healthy Boilermakers. With Robbie Hummel and Chris Kramer securely back in the fold, things are opening up elsewhere on the court for others such as Keaton Grant (6-10 from the arc in past two games).

Minnesota surprised almost everyone with their defeat at Northwestern. The storyline by most after that game was the 1-for-13 shooting by the Gophers coming out of the locker room. I take a different view. Minnesota shot 47.2 percent for the game compared to 47.8 percent for Northwestern. Not much difference there to pin the game on one stretch.

Just as we discussed in a recent Illinois scenario that proved correct, the inability of Minnesota to get to the line and the production by their opponents at the stripe showed a much larger disparity. Minnesota went an ugly 5-11 from the line compared to Northwestern at 21-27. Minnesota is not a team that gets to the line 25 times a game normally, but five points against 21 is a catalyst for defeat.

ATS

Purdue is 7-8 ATS, including 1-2 on the road.
Minnesota is 9-4 ATS, including 5-3 at home.

All in all, these two teams match up pretty much evenly. Should be a great game that goes down to the wire. I’ll take the team with the better spread numbers, the home court advantage, and getting the points.

Dave’s Pick: Minnesota +2

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread.