2012 NFL Mock Draft: First-Round Talents Sure to Flame out After Rookie Season

There are no sure things in the NFL draft, and this year's class is no different.

There are players that will surely blossom and become huge stars, and there are surely going to be players who flame out.

But it is often hard to tell the difference between the two when trying to better a team before the start of a season.

So, we'll take a look and see which first-round talents are heading for irrelevancy after their rookie years.

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

No worries here, Luck is going to be around for quite a while.

2. *Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The risk is a bit higher with RGIII, but he's got a long career ahead of him.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Kalil is expected to start for a long time in the NFL--even if he's never elite.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

Injuries are the only thing that could derail Richardson. He's an elite prospect who will shine as long as he is healthy.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

It many not happen right away, but he's going to get better and better with each passing year.

6. *St. Louis Rams (2-14): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The star receiver will be a star from Day 1 in the league, but he may never become an elite receiver.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, UNC

Coples is the first potential bomber to be taken in this draft. He has all the tools, athleticism and size, but he's going to have to work for his success.

The question is how much he really wants to succeed. Questions about a lack of effort have been following him to draft day.

That won't get by in the NFL, and he'll have to humble himself if he is to succeed.

8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Drafting Tannehill is a huge risk-reward for the Dolphins, but he certainly won't be flaming out any time soon.

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

Another potential bust, Poe's dominant combine performance has driven his stock through the roof. He has a ton of athleticism—rare for a man his size—and he could be a star.

But he could also disappear and struggle to adjust to life in the NFL. Size and athleticism aren't everything and the pressures of being a top 10 pick are mighty heavy.

Is Poe sure to flame out? No, but he's a big risk to do so.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The technician will make his presence felt early and often in this league.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

The best interior lineman in the draft will start in the NFL for a long time.

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina

Ingram is an interesting prospect. He has a ton of potential and could very easily be a huge force early in his career. But he could also struggle if he doesn't fit into the system. 

The Seahawks are 4-3 team and that suits his skills better, but there are no guarantees that he winds up there.

It wouldn't be shocking to see Ingram fizzle out after bursting on the scene just this year.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College

A top-notch tackler with better than expected athleticism and elite instincts, Kuechly will be a star.

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

Barron will be good, never great, but will not flame out.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Floyd could actually flame out if he struggles to adjust to life in the NFL, but he appears to have matured past his earlier off-field problems.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

Upshaw is too good a football player to completely disappear, even though he may not become a superstar.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Kirkpatrick's elite potential will keep him around for a while.

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Nick Perry, DE, USC

Pass-rushers can be a dime a dozen, so it wouldn't be shocking at all if Perry falls off after his rookie year. He has all the tools, size and speed, but he could also completely disappoint. 

The Chargers don't have a great track record either. GM A.J. Smith is often jokingly called the "Lord of No Rings" and a big part of that problem is missing on first round picks.

Any time they make a selection there is going to be deserved skepticism.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia

The massive lineman has too much versatility not to make a name for himself somewhere. Chicago can use him in a number of spots.

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

The same goes for Cox. He's super versatile and has great potential.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Wright won't flame out, but it could take him longer than one year to truly grasp things as a receiver in the NFL.

22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

He needs to get stronger, but Martin has a lot of great qualities.

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Even bad cornerbacks find work in the NFL, so don't expect Gilmore to disappear.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama

Hightower needs the right system, but he could be star in that system.

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

Still may not truly flame out, but his name won't be coming off everyone's lips after next year. He's a big run-stopper with limited pass rush ability and the Broncos need exactly that.

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Jeffery has elite potential, but it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see him bust. This is even a bit high for him in the draft.

Playing alongside Andre Johnson would do him wonders.

27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Brockers won't flame out because he's just scratching the surface of his potential. His best is still to come.

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Andre Branch, DE, Clemson

If Branch joins the Packers, they'll find a way to put him on the field.

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

The only way he doesn't succeed is if he gets in trouble off the field. Unfortunately, it is entirely possible he does just that.

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

Hill is a potential based pick, and it will take time for him to develop.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut

No flame out here, Reyes will make his presence felt and keep doing so.

32. New York Giants (9-7): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

If he plays with Eli, he'll be an instant contributor with plenty more to come.

*Rams trade No. 2 overall pick to Redskins for 2012, 2013, 2014 first-round picks and 2012 second-round pick.