2012 NFL Draft 1st-Round Odds: Minnesota Vikings

With three weeks left until the draft, we can have a solid idea of which players a team will be targeting in the first round and the chances that they will be there when they pick. We can also gauge the possibility of the team trading down or trading up in the first round. I'll be progressing through the entire first round, giving rough odds for the outcome of each pick.

I won't waste your time with the Indianapolis Colts or Washington Redskins, who are 100 percent to pick Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, respectively. Don't believe any talk that the Colts haven't made up their mind. So that puts us at the Vikings' No. 3 pick.

90 percent: Matt Kalil, OT, USC: The best player available at No. 3, the Vikings' biggest need on offense and positional value/scarcity all point to Matt Kalil as the pick. Kalil is an elite pass-blocker who might be the best prospect in that capacity at the position since Jake Long. He's an automatic 10-year starter and every bit the player you expect to get in the top three.

Five percent: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: If the Vikings use the pick on anyone other than Kalil, it would have to be Claiborne. Claiborne, like Kalil, is the clear-cut best prospect at his position, which happens to be the position of greatest need for the Vikings. 

Five percent: Trade Down: The Vikings would love to get even half of what the Rams got to move down within the top 10. Their hope is that someone (the Dolphins) would want to move ahead of the Browns for Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill. I don't think any team will want Tannehill bad enough or believe the Browns' interest is strong enough to make that kind of move. The Vikings would also lose any shot at Claiborne, who is almost certain to go in the top five unless the Browns take Justin Blackmon.