The Truth about the New York Rangers' Defense

Some of you may have read my last article on how the Rangers overvalue their offensive unit, and how that overvaluation contributes to the team scoring roughly 250 fewer points than they should do every season.

Having watched the Pittsburgh game on Sunday, this was painfully clear in the Rangers complete inefficiency in beating the trap in the neutral zone. No imagination, no ability to retrieve the puck, and most importantly, no goals.

However, as we all know, the offensive unit cannot always be entirely to blame. Support needs to come from the defensive units in many ways. Redden and Rozsival get a hard time from Rangers’ fans and so I thought it might be time to examine how the Rangers value their defensive units.

Introduction

Okay, so rating offensive units is easy. The number of points they score directly correlate to a teams success.

Defensive units? Not such a simple task. There are simply too many different contributions a single unit can make; the big hit, the takeaway, and the blocked shot. However, one particular stat comes in handy.

Whereas a forward with a negative +/- rating might not surprise us because his line may concede goals due to over commitment to the rush or forecheck (Ilya Kovalchuk of the Atlanta Thrashers has an incredible 48 points in 46 games, but a terrible -8 +/-), defensive units are more reliably represented by how high their +/- is.

For anyone unsure of what a +/- rating is, it is calculated as follows:

(Even Strength Goals+Shorthanded Goals) Scored - (ESG +SHG) Conceded

Simply put, a defenseman with a negative +/- is not doing their job right.

However, we need to take into consideration their value in relation to the rest of the league. For example, a 3rd line defenseman who earns $750k per year is not expected to have Zdeno Chara’s +21 rating. That’s why he is paid the big bucks!

So…without further ado, let us start.

Contribution

It took me a while to work out how I was going to fairly compare the players. There was no point working out their contribution by calculating, for instance, how many hits a defenseman makes, as those hits may even take them out of the play and result in a goal. Defeating the object of the hit in the first place.

Blocked shots looked possible, but there was no way of accurately quantifying the value of a blocked shot.

The +/- route takes us along safer territory. If a D-man is on the ice when a goal is conceded, -1. If he is on the ice when a goal is scored, +1. However, calculating their worth required for them to be compared with other players. Hence, we use their contribution.

This is a simple formula to work out how much better or worse a D-man is than the other defensive players’ averages.

To illustrate:

	Player	Team	+/-	$	Contribution
1	Dennis Wideman	BOS	28	$3,250,000.00	56
2	Duncan Keith	CHI	23	$1,600,000.00	51
3	Zdeno Chara	BOS	21	$7,500,000.00	49
4	Marc-Edouard Vlasic	SJS	18	$735,000.00	46
5	Nicklas Lidstrom	DET	18	$7,450,000.00	46
6	Jan Hejda	CBJ	17	$2,000,000.00	45
7	Steve Montador	ANA	16	$800,000.00	44
8	Mike Green	WSH	16	$6,000,000.00	44
9	Mike Mottau	NJD	15	$750,000.00	43
10	Brent Seabrook	CHI	15	$3,500,000.00	43
11	Brian Rafalski	DET	14	$6,000,000.00	42
12	Matt Hunwick	BOS	13	$775,000.00	41
13	Josh Gorges	MTL	13	$1,000,000.00	41
14	Aaron Ward	BOS	13	$2,500,000.00	41
15	Rob Blake	SJS	13	$5,000,000.00	41
16	David Johnny Oduya	NJD	12	$600,000.00	40
17	Mike Commodore	CBJ	12	$4,300,000.00	40
18	Andrei Markov	MTL	12	$5,750,000.00	40
19	Mark Stuart	BOS	11	$1,100,000.00	39
20	Filip Kuba	OTT	11	$3,000,000.00	39
21	Colin (John) White	NJD	11	$3,000,000.00	39
22	Willie Mitchell	VAN	11	$3,500,000.00	39
23	Dan Boyle	SJS	11	$6,666,667.00	39
24	Rob Scuderi	PIT	10	$725,000.00	38
25	Marc Methot	CBJ	9	$522,500.00	37
26	Ken Klee	PHX	9	$1,250,000.00	37
27	Stephane Robidas	DAL	9	$1,500,000.00	37
28	Paul Martin	NJD	9	$4,000,000.00	37
29	Andreas Lilja	DET	8	$1,250,000.00	36
30	Brad Lukowich	SJS	8	$1,650,000.00	36
31	Niclas Havelid	ATL	8	$2,900,000.00	36
32	Matthew Carle	PHI	8	$2,950,000.00	36
33	Bryan McCabe	FLA	8	$6,150,000.00	36
34	Tobias Enstrom	ATL	7	$750,000.00	35
35	Alex Goligoski	PIT	7	$895,260.00	35
36	Robyn Regehr	CGY	7	$4,600,000.00	35
37	Lubomir Visnovsky	EDM	7	$7,000,000.00	35
38	Brian Campbell	CHI	7	$7,142,857.00	35
39	Matt Walker	CHI	6	$600,000.00	34
40	Jeff Schultz	WSH	6	$650,000.00	34
41	Kent Huskins	ANA	6	$650,000.00	34
42	Marc Staal	NYR	6	$765,000.00	34
43	Andrew Alberts	PHI	6	$1,400,000.00	34
44	Denis Grebeshkov	EDM	6	$1,500,000.00	34
45	Keith Ballard	FLA	6	$2,500,000.00	34
46	Shea Weber	NSH	6	$4,500,000.00	34
47	Shane O'Brien	VAN	5	$1,025,000.00	33
48	Karlis Skrastins	FLA	5	$2,400,000.00	33
49	Mattias Ohlund	VAN	5	$3,500,000.00	33
50	Brett Clark	COL	5	$3,500,000.00	33
51	Roman Hamrlik	MTL	5	$5,500,000.00	33
52	Douglas Murray	SJS	4	$600,000.00	32
53	Brett Lebda	DET	4	$650,000.00	32
54	Patrice Brisebois	MTL	4	$750,000.00	32
55	Alexandre Picard	OTT	4	$1,537,500.00	32
56	Trevor Daley	DAL	4	$2,100,000.00	32
57	Brad Stuart	DET	4	$3,750,000.00	32
58	Jay Bouwmeester	FLA	4	$4,875,000.00	32
59	Alexander Edler	VAN	3	$550,000.00	31
60	Shane Hnidy	BOS	3	$760,000.00	31
61	Ian White	TOR	3	$850,000.00	31
62	Ladislav Smid	EDM	3	$952,381.00	31
63	Ossi Vaananen	PHI	3	$1,000,000.00	31
64	Steve Eminger	TBL	3	$1,200,000.00	31
65	Matt Greene	LAK	3	$1,250,000.00	31
66	Francis Bouillon	MTL	3	$1,875,000.00	31
67	Nick Schultz	MIN	3	$3,200,000.00	31
68	Tom Gilbert	EDM	3	$3,500,000.00	31
69	Kimmo Timonen	PHI	3	$8,000,000.00	31
70	Bret Hedican	ANA	2	$870,500.00	30
71	Sean O'Donnell	LAK	2	$1,250,000.00	30
72	Bryce Salvador	NJD	2	$2,900,000.00	30
73	Cory Sarich	CGY	2	$3,400,000.00	30
74	Kim Johnsson	MIN	2	$5,250,000.00	30
75	Adam Pardy	CGY	1	$500,000.00	29
76	Braydon Coburn	PHI	1	$1,200,000.00	29
77	Zbynek Michalek	PHX	1	$1,400,000.00	29
78	Kurt Sauer	PHX	1	$1,750,000.00	29
79	Mark Eaton	PIT	1	$2,000,000.00	29
80	Christian Backman	CBJ	1	$3,400,000.00	29
81	Mark Giordano	CGY	0	$600,000.00	28
82	Keith Yandle	PHX	0	$635,000.00	28
83	Greg Zanon	NSH	0	$750,000.00	28
84	Paul Mara	NYR	0	$1,950,000.00	28
85	Hal Gill	PIT	0	$2,100,000.00	28
86	Fedor Tyutin	CBJ	0	$2,250,000.00	28
87	Philippe Boucher	PIT	0	$2,500,000.00	28
88	Henrik Tallinder	BUF	0	$2,900,000.00	28
89	Sheldon Souray	EDM	0	$6,250,000.00	28
90	Kyle Quincey	LAK	-1	$500,000.00	27
91	Paul Ranger	TBL	-1	$950,000.00	27
92	Lukas Krajicek	TBL	-1	$1,100,000.00	27
93	Marek Malik	TBL	-1	$1,250,000.00	27
94	Ruslan Salei	COL	-1	$3,025,000.00	27
95	John-Michael Liles	COL	-1	$3,700,000.00	27
96	Erik Reitz	MIN	-2	$500,000.00	26
97	Jason Strudwick	EDM	-2	$650,000.00	26
98	Milan Jurcina	WSH	-2	$912,500.00	26
99	Marc-Andre Bergeron	MIN	-2	$1,691,000.00	26
100	Shaone Morrisonn	WSH	-2	$1,975,000.00	26
101	Tim Gleason	CAR	-2	$2,000,000.00	26
102	Andrej Meszaros	TBL	-2	$2,500,000.00	26
103	Steve Staios	EDM	-2	$2,900,000.00	26
104	Nick Boynton	FLA	-2	$2,950,000.00	26
105	Niklas Kronwall	DET	-2	$3,000,000.00	26
106	Kristopher Letang	PIT	-3	$685,000.00	25
107	Carlo Colaiacovo	STL	-3	$1,400,000.00	25
108	Jordan Leopold	COL	-3	$1,500,000.00	25
109	Niclas Wallin	CAR	-3	$1,725,000.00	25
110	Darryl Sydor	DAL	-3	$2,500,000.00	25
111	Joseph Corvo	CAR	-3	$2,750,000.00	25
112	Toni Lydman	BUF	-3	$3,150,000.00	25
113	Jaroslav Spacek	BUF	-3	$3,300,000.00	25
114	Joni Pitkanen	CAR	-3	$3,500,000.00	25
115	Jay McKee	STL	-3	$4,000,000.00	25
116	Adrian Aucoin	CGY	-3	$4,000,000.00	25
117	Mark Streit	NYI	-3	$4,100,000.00	25
118	Chris Pronger	ANA	-3	$6,250,000.00	25
119	Scott Niedermayer	ANA	-3	$6,750,000.00	25
120	Luca Sbisa	PHI	-4	$875,000.00	24
121	Drew Doughty	LAK	-4	$875,000.00	24
122	Cameron Barker	CHI	-4	$984,200.00	24
123	Teppo Numminen	BUF	-4	$1,100,000.00	24
124	Marek Zidlicky	MIN	-4	$3,500,000.00	24
125	Brooks Orpik	PIT	-4	$3,750,000.00	24
126	Kevin Bieksa	VAN	-4	$4,250,000.00	24
127	Roman Polak	STL	-5	$475,000.00	23
128	David Hale	PHX	-5	$675,000.00	23
129	Luke Schenn	TOR	-5	$875,000.00	23
130	Ryan Suter	NSH	-5	$3,500,000.00	23
131	Christoph Schubert	OTT	-6	$900,000.00	22
132	Anton Babchuk	CAR	-6	$1,000,000.00	22
133	Garnet Exelby	ATL	-6	$1,400,000.00	22
134	Daniel Girardi	NYR	-6	$1,500,000.00	22
135	Jason Smith	OTT	-6	$2,600,000.00	22
136	Christian Ehrhoff	SJS	-6	$2,750,000.00	22
137	Adam Foote	COL	-7	$2,750,000.00	21
138	Scott Hannan	COL	-7	$4,500,000.00	21
139	Peter Harrold	LAK	-8	$650,000.00	20
140	Jassen Cullimore	FLA	-8	$830,000.00	20
141	Dmitri Kalinin	NYR	-8	$2,100,000.00	20
142	Jeff Finger	TOR	-8	$3,500,000.00	20
143	Wade Redden	NYR	-8	$8,000,000.00	20
144	Denis Jr. Gauthier	LAK	-9	$2,200,000.00	19
145	Dion Phaneuf	CGY	-9	$7,000,000.00	19
146	Bruno Gervais	NYI	-10	$522,500.00	18
147	Thomas Pock	NYI	-10	$685,000.00	18
148	Martin Skoula	MIN	-10	$1,900,000.00	18
149	Brent Burns	MIN	-10	$3,000,000.00	18
150	Tomas Kaberle	TOR	-10	$4,250,000.00	18
151	Michal Rozsival	NYR	-10	$7,000,000.00	18
152	Andrej Sekera	BUF	-11	$659,000.00	17
153	Nicklas Grossman	DAL	-11	$900,000.00	17
154	Dennis Seidenberg	CAR	-11	$1,200,000.00	17
155	Barret Jackman	STL	-11	$2,500,000.00	17
156	Derek Morris	PHX	-11	$3,950,000.00	17
157	Pavel Kubina	TOR	-11	$5,000,000.00	17
158	Nathan Oystrick	ATL	-12	$577,500.00	16
159	Matt Niskanen	DAL	-12	$635,000.00	16
160	Dan Hamhuis	NSH	-12	$2,250,000.00	16
161	Ed Jovanovski	PHX	-12	$6,500,000.00	16
162	Anton Volchenkov	OTT	-13	$2,200,000.00	15
163	Mathieu Schneider	ATL	-13	$5,750,000.00	15
164	Chris Campoli	NYI	-15	$625,000.00	13
165	Greg De Vries	NSH	-15	$2,750,000.00	13
166	Ron Hainsey	ATL	-15	$4,500,000.00	13
167	Chris Phillips	OTT	-19	$3,500,000.00	9
168	Brendan Witt	NYI	-27	$3,000,000.00	1

It is essential to take the lowest rated player in the exercise to get the contribution of all of the players. In this case, the Islanders’ Brendan Witt shouldn’t play hockey with a -27 rating.

The Red Wings’ star Nick Lidstrom has an awesome +18 rating. This puts him 45 +/- points above Witt.

For divisional reasons later, we need to add one to the rating so that no player’s worth is multiplied by zero.

Therefore, we get the following:

Contribution = ([Lidstrom]18)-([Witt]-27)+1 = 46
Contribution = ([Rozsival]-10)-([Witt]-27)+1 = 18
Contribution = ([Witt]-27)-([Witt]-27)+1 = 1

Worth

Honestly, I don’t envy the GMs who have to work out how much a defenseman is worth. More often than not, they have veteran leaders in a team; take Pronger, Niedermayer, and Lidstrom for example. They also have to pay them what they think they are worth rather than following any kind of scoring record or history, as they would for forwards.

Therefore, to find the true worth of the D-men, we have to take into account what teams are willing to pay for them.

From the table above, we can see that the average wage for this group of players (made up of individuals who have played 30 games or more this season) is $2,567,942.65 per season.

From here, we can continue to calculate a player’s worth by multiplying the average salary by their contribution’s relation to the average contribution among the players.

Or:

Average salary x (player’s contribution/average contribution)
$2.57m x (Lidstrom[46])/28.6) = $4.13m
$2.57m x ([Rozsival]18/28.6) = $1.62m

So now that we know the players current salary, their contribution and their worth, we can move ahead with our analysis a little.

The Top 10

	Player	Team	+/-	$	Contribution	WORTH	Over/Under
1	Dennis Wideman	BOS	28	$3,250,000.00	56	$5,028,976.78	-$1,778,976.78
2	Duncan Keith	CHI	23	$1,600,000.00	51	$4,579,960.99	-$2,979,960.99
3	Zdeno Chara	BOS	21	$7,500,000.00	49	$4,400,354.68	$3,099,645.32
4	Marc-Edouard Vlasic	SJS	18	$735,000.00	46	$4,130,945.21	-$3,395,945.21
5	Nicklas Lidstrom	DET	18	$7,450,000.00	46	$4,130,945.21	$3,319,054.79
6	Jan Hejda	CBJ	17	$2,000,000.00	45	$4,041,142.05	-$2,041,142.05
7	Steve Montador	ANA	16	$800,000.00	44	$3,951,338.90	-$3,151,338.90
8	Mike Green	WSH	16	$6,000,000.00	44	$3,951,338.90	$2,048,661.10
9	Mike Mottau	NJD	15	$750,000.00	43	$3,861,535.74	-$3,111,535.74
10	Brent Seabrook	CHI	15	$3,500,000.00	43	$3,861,535.74	-$361,535.74

Okay. So we may not like it, but true to form Boston rides high. Undervaluing the incredible 56 contribution by Wideman to the tune of $1.78m per season.

In line with my previous article on offensive valuations, we can see similarities in that the Bruins tend to undervalue their entire squad, the Red Wings and Sharks have high contribution players, and worryingly, the Rangers have no representatives in the Top 10.

If they are not there, where are they:

	Player	Team	+/-	$	Contribution	WORTH	Over/Under
42	Marc Staal	NYR	6	$765,000.00	34	$3,053,307.33	-$2,288,307.33
84	Paul Mara	NYR	0	$1,950,000.00	28	$2,514,488.39	-$564,488.39
134	Daniel Girardi	NYR	-6	$1,500,000.00	22	$1,975,669.45	-$475,669.45
141	Dmitri Kalinin	NYR	-8	$2,100,000.00	20	$1,796,063.13	$303,936.87
143	Wade Redden	NYR	-8	$8,000,000.00	20	$1,796,063.13	$6,203,936.87
151	Michal Rozsival	NYR	-10	$7,000,000.00	18	$1,616,456.82	$5,383,543.18

Marc Staal is the first Ranger representative with a contribution of 34, followed closely by Paul Mara with 28 and then Dan Girardi with 22.

Here’s where it gets interesting for the Rangers D.

Staal, Mara, and Girardi have combined for a contribution of 84 so far. Their combined salary packets hit the Rangers’ cap for $4.21m per season, while the second three D-men for the Rangers (Redden, Rozsival and Kalinin) combine for a contribution of 58 and hit the cap for $17.1m.

Let’s clarify this even further shall we, because I am angry now. Glen Sather sees fit to pay $12.89m more to these three players for a contribution 26 points lower than the others.

Okay, rant over, but I do think we should look at this objectively and see where the Rangers are in the over/under-valuation tables.

	Player	Team	+/-	$	Contribution	WORTH	Over/Under
1	Wade Redden	NYR	-8	$8,000,000.00	20	$1,796,063.13	$6,203,936.87
2	Michal Rozsival	NYR	-10	$7,000,000.00	18	$1,616,456.82	$5,383,543.18
3	Dion Phaneuf	CGY	-9	$7,000,000.00	19	$1,706,259.98	$5,293,740.02
4	Kimmo Timonen	PHI	3	$8,000,000.00	31	$2,783,897.86	$5,216,102.14
5	Ed Jovanovski	PHX	-12	$6,500,000.00	16	$1,436,850.51	$5,063,149.49
6	Scott Niedermayer	ANA	-3	$6,750,000.00	25	$2,245,078.92	$4,504,921.08
7	Mathieu Schneider	ATL	-13	$5,750,000.00	15	$1,347,047.35	$4,402,952.65
8	Chris Pronger	ANA	-3	$6,250,000.00	25	$2,245,078.92	$4,004,921.08
9	Brian Campbell	CHI	7	$7,142,857.00	35	$3,143,110.49	$3,999,746.51
10	Lubomir Visnovsky	EDM	7	$7,000,000.00	35	$3,143,110.49	$3,856,889.51

I think I may have spoken too soon when I said rant over. Rozsival and Redden are statistically the NHL’s most overvalued defenseman.

Here are the facts:

Redden had a 20 contribution, two better than Rozsival, but is paid an astonishing $8m per season, overvalued by $6.20m. He is statistically worth $1.79m. Rozsival’s contribution of 18 puts him in second place, overvalued by $5.38m and worth only $1.62m.

Interestingly, both Niedermayer and Pronger are also in the Top 10 overvalued players. But then again, they probably have more personality and leadership skills in their little fingers than Rozsival and Redden have combined.

Okay. So we’ve seen that the Rangers are guilty again of overvaluing their players statistically, but what about that undervalued talent.

• Marc Staal: Undervalued by $2.29m, the 15th most undervalued defenseman in the league, he is worth $3.05m with his contribution of 34.
• Paul Mara: Undervalued by $564k, his contribution has so far been 28 for a worth of $2.51m.
• Daniel Girardi: Undervalued by $476k, for a worth of $1.96m with a contribution of 22.

So, if we look at how the Rangers compare with the other teams we get the following:

Team	Average Over/Under
NYR	$1,427,158.62
TOR	$937,291.18
CGY	$865,446.00
COL	$857,552.31
NSH	$702,488.03
ATL	$595,744.59
FLA	$575,104.77
EDM	$543,416.42
MIN	$500,721.98
DET	$480,354.08
NYI	$439,452.65
ANA	$226,320.25
OTT	$209,143.54
BUF	$84,484.87
STL	$73,178.97
PHX	$12,176.42
CAR	-$66,240.32
PHI	-$198,097.33
MTL	-$204,031.75
VAN	-$308,701.02
SJS	-$332,635.81
WSH	-$534,227.59
CHI	-$593,226.66
CBJ	-$720,453.01
DAL	-$754,000.18
PIT	-$847,713.35
TBL	-$1,078,567.13
LAK	-$1,139,212.78
NJD	-$1,144,559.32
BOS	-$1,199,068.55

No surprises then. On average the Rangers overvalue their defensemen by $1.43m, whereas Boston with Zdeno Chara and co. undervalue theirs by $1.2m. Sucks if you’re a bruin. Does that mean that the Rangers would pay Chara over $10m per season?

Conclusion

As with my previous article, I would like to rearrange the Rangers lineup with players from outside the existing team. But I have rules.

Say we keep all of the undervalued players as a matter of principle and pay them their worth. Taking out the overvalued players (Redden, Rozsival and Kalinin and thereby saving $17.1m per season), we replace the players with the top three contributors from the league. This is what it would look like.

		+/-	CapHit	Contribution	Worth	Over/Under
Marc Staal	NYR	6	$765,000.00	34.00	$3,053,307.33	$-2,288,307.33
Paul Mara	NYR	0	$1,950,000.00	28.00	$2,514,488.39	$-564,488.39
Daniel Girardi	NYR	-6	$1,500,000.00	22.00	$1,975,669.45	$-475,669.45
Dennis Wideman	BOS	28	$3,250,000.00	56.00	$5,028,976.78	$-1,778,976.78
Duncan Keith	CHI	23	$1,600,000.00	51.00	$4,579,960.99	$-2,979,960.99
Zdeno Chara	BOS	21	$7,500,000.00	49.00	$4,400,354.68	$3,099,645.32
				PREVIOUS CAP HIT		$21,315,000.00
				PREVIOUS CONTRIBUTION		142.00
				PREVIOUS +/-		-26.00
				NEW CAP HIT		$19,893,465.17
				NEW CONTRIBUTION		240.00
				NEW +/-		72.00

Okay, so we pay Chara $3m per season too much, but I figure he’s worth it. Especially when our defensive contributions increase by 98 points, turning the unit into a +72 rather than its current -26.

I’ll let you draw your own conclusions from this one. Personally, hockey isn’t an exact science, but surely if you reduce you purchasing power by overpaying for results you’re not going to have the room to get a balanced team.