Could Tavares be Headed to Leafs Land?

We knew from the start that this was a 'rebuild' year for the Leafs, one where they would not make the playoffs but could hope for a high draft pick.  The assumption has been that the Leafs can't hope to finish last in the league (and likely first in the John Tavares lottery), but is that too pessimistic (optimistic)?

If the season finished now, the Leafs would be seventh worst, and possibly be hoping another Schenn slipped through.  The end of the season is, however, almost half a year away—how will the back half change the scenario? 

Could the Leafs pass some teams?  Seems very unlikely as the next teams along (including Colorado, Dallas, and Nashville) all have much more talent than the Leafs and will try for the playoffs.  Could they fall further down? 

It would be very surprising if they did not.  Their recent performance has exposed just how weak this team is.  So let's look at the teams behind the Leafs and think of their chances in the back half.

Ottawa will pass the Leafs.  They have three games in hand already, and Heatly alone has the talent of the top three Leafs.  They may not trade to save the year, but they are very unlikely to dump. 

Tampa Bay should be able to pull past the Leafs with superstar Lecavalier supported by a cast superior to the Leafs.  Atlanta is weak, but they know they need success now, and promotion of Kovalchuk was a smart move to try to get him more motivated for every game. They can take the Leafs as they did last night, but no guarantee. 

LA Kings are a young and improving team that will finish ahead of the Leafs. 

That leaves St. Louis and the Islanders.  St. Louis could pass the Leafs, but they will dump some talent and stay bad, as they have been for years.  Islanders are toughest to 'beat' in the lottery, as their talent is as weak as the Buds.  If DiPietro comes back and stands on his head...maybe.

What of the Leafs themselves?  You take Kaberle and Antropov off this team and they could sink fast.  Could Leafs 'win' the lottery?  They have made a lot of progress towards that goal in past weeks...does anyone really see a scenario where they get better?