College Hoops Picks: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Syracuse Orange

Both Notre Dame and Syracuse are coming off of heartbreaking losses—the Irish lost by 14 in overtime to Louisville and Syracuse lost by 14 to Georgetown in regulation. The Hoyas were the Orange's first ranked Big East opponent of the season and began a tough four game stretch where they face four ranked opponents. While the first tic in the conference play loss column is disappointing for Syracuse, their biggest loss coming out of D.C. is the status of Andy Rautins, their stellar guard who had stepped up in recent weeks. In the first half he injured his knee and did not return.

The Fighting Irish have put together a very respectable season of their own, although their Big East play has not been as stellar as they would have hoped. They stand at 3-2, but their two losses have come to Louisville (respectable, especially considering they were ranked third in the preseason polls) and St. John's (not so much...). They have also had some overlap with Syracuse—they both have defeated Seton Hall and DePaul. The only difference between these two is that Notre Dame defeated Georgetown by six, while Syracuse lost to the Hoyas by 14.

Simple math, then, tells us that Notre Dame should beat Syracuse by 20... but since that's not remotely how this game works (especially in the Big East), I guess it's time to do some deeper analysis...

	Notre Dame	Syracuse
Record:	12-4	16-2
BE Record:	3-2	4-1
PF:	81.6	80.9
PA:	68.8	68.1
FG %	.461	.505
FT %	.696	.632
3P %	.415	.348
RPG	40.2	40.4
SPG	6.8	7.9
TO	9.8	15.7

There are two glaring issues for Syracuse—free throws and turnovers. While from this table free throws may not look like an issue, in conference play they are only shooting .556 (they are 60 for 108). It hadn't been an issue until they faced Georgetown, though, because the teams they were struggling from the line against couldn't burn them in the same way.

Notre Dame has the ability to make them pay for these mistakes the same way Georgetown did. Let's take a look at who the key players are who can do that.

Notre Dame Key Players

Luke Harrangody (Junior, Forward)

Despite the Irish struggling in overtime against Louisville, Harrangody had a fantastic game. He was the game-high scorer with 28 points and 13 rebounds and now is averaging 24.8 points and 12.7 rebounds per game.

Kyle McAlarney (Senior, Guard)

McAlarney was the only other Irish player to score double-digit points against Louisville. He continues to dominate games from beyond the arc (he hit five threes on six attempts) and now is averaging 16.6 points per game.

Syracuse Key Players

Jonny Flynn (Sophomore, Guard)

Flynn continues to amaze spectators with his raw talent. He only grabbed 14 points against the Hoyas (which put him in fourth for Syracuse points for that game), but he managed nine assists (which was almost double what the rest of the Orange had). He is now averaging 16.3 points and 5.7 assists per game (which shooting .361 from beyond the arc).

Eric Devendorf (Junior, Guard)

After being suspended for a few games, Devendorf has come back (and in a big way). He came off the bench against the Hoyas and was good for 20 points. If Andy Rautins is hurt, he is going to have to step up and really fill that void. On the year, Devendorf is averaging 14.3 points per game and is shooting .391 with the long ball.

Prediction

Current Line: Syracuse -4.0

Notre Dame ATS: 4-5
Syracuse ATS: 7-7

While Syracuse owns the overall record in head-to-head play with the Irish 19-11, they have been a little more evenly matched in recent years. Since 2005, they have split the series 3-3. In 2004, they spit games.

The last time they faced off at the Carrier Dome, Notre Dame walked away with the win 103-91. Without Rautins the Orange are going to struggle, and given the way Harrangody and McAlarney have been playing, I like Notre Dame +4.0.