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Elite 8 Predictions: Last-Minute Spread Picks You Can Bank on

Mike Shiekman
Mar 24, 2012

The Elite Eight games are only a few hours away. Those looking for some last-minute NCAA tournament selections have come to the right place.

Whether you're in a office pool or your bracket is in flames, there is always action available during March Madness weekend. Don't miss out on these opportunities to make (friendly) bets when you have a gut feeling.

Read on to find out which side of the spreads are worth making a wager.

Ohio State (-3) vs. Syracuse; O/U: 136

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Key to Cashing a Winning Ticket: Will Syracuseโ€™s 2-3 zone hold up against Ohio Stateโ€™s frontline?

Note that I emphasized Syracuseโ€™s defense, not Ohio Stateโ€™s offense. The former will face its biggest test of the season thus far.

The Buckeyes sport one of the best troupe of big men in the nation. They wonโ€™t merely swing the ball around the outside for a good look; rather they attack the high post and put two bigs in the painted area. Forwards Jared Sullinger and Deshaun Thomas can score in traffic and will look to exploit Syracuseโ€™s lack of depth inside.

With that said, this year's Syracuse team may be the most underappreciated two-loss team in the history of the NCAA tournament. Fab Melo or no, this team is dangerous in transition and makes teams work for shots in its flustering 2-3 zone.

I admire Jim Boehiemโ€™s stubbornness to stick with his 2-3 zone, as he does every year. This may be one of his best 2-3 defensive teams ever. Kris Joseph and C.J. Fair in particular, turn opposing players into lost puppy dogs. Then they are the ideal trailers in a transition attack and tough to stop in the open floor.

The zone defense forces opponents to take three-pointers, which is not OSUโ€™s strong suit, ranking 285th nationally. Depth is also an issue for Thad Mattaโ€™s teamโ€”all but one starter played 35-plus minutes against Cincinnati yesterday.

Numbers to Know

ATS

Ohio State: 19-14 (Covered 5 of 7 against +.600 opponents)

Syracuse: 17-18 (Last Ten Games: 3-7)

O/U

Ohio State: 20-12-1

Syracuse: 17-18

Prediction: โ€˜Cuse did not face a talented frontcourt like this in the Big East. A few Ohio State free throws puts the number out of sight. Take Ohio State (-3)

Florida (-1.5) vs. Louisville; O/U: 131

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Key to Cashing a Winning Ticket: Which defense will rule?

Both teams have turned the West bracket upside down with inspired performances on the defensive end. ย 

Rick Pitinoโ€™s full-court press has always received publicity for its effectiveness, but Florida is making waves with its stretch run of suffocating defense beginning in tourney time.

In their first game of the tournament as an underdog, the Gators held Marquette to 31 percent shooting. No player was exempt from the Gatorsโ€™ defensive pressure, including Big East Player of the Year Jae Crowder, who shot at a 30 percent clip.ย 

Louisville, though, has been on a little run of its own.

Led by feisty point guard Peyton Siva, the Cardinals have been suffocating teams with their tiresome matchup zone defense. The Big East champions looked like they were playing a JV squad when they emasculated the Big Ten champion Michigan State on Thursday. Rick Pitinoโ€™s squad held the Spartans to 29 percent shooting, winning by 13 when it only shot 38 percent themselves.ย 

The clash of defensive styles could turn into a game of streetball, with both teams alternating a full-court press. Every trek across half court will be a moral victory and an exhausting endeavor.

Numbers to Know

ATS

Florida: 16-15 (9-2 in past 11 NCAA tournament games)

Louisville: 21-13-1 (On a 7-0 ATS run)ย 

O/U

Florida: 18-13

Louisville: 13-21-1

Prediction: When in doubt, go with the team that plays both offense and defense. Take Florida (-1.5)

Baylor vs. Kentucky (-7); O/U: 148

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Key to Cashing a Winning Ticket: Can Baylorโ€™s length and athleticism threaten Kentuckyโ€™s depth?

Early in the first half against Indiana, Anthony Davis went to the bench with two fouls. It seemed like dรฉjร  vu of Kentuckyโ€™s first loss at Assembly Hall.

Davis would avoid his third foul. For the rest of the game.

Kentucky will have to take into account more than Cody Zeller in the paint against the Baylor Bears.

Thereโ€™s no doubt Coach Calipariโ€™s team has seen the highlights from the Baylor-Xavier matchup. Baylor forward Quincy Acy was in the air more than he was on the ground. The Baylor forwards shot well over 50 percent, including Perry Jones' thoroughly efficient 7-for-8 performance, and looked like they were on pogo sticks doing it.

There is no doubt Baylor has the pieces to contend with the Wildcats. The biggest concern is whether theyโ€™ll be aggressive enough to hang around for 40 minutes. The Bears have been known to get into offensive swoons for stretches of several minutes.

That will not suffice against a Kentucky team that put up triple digits against the Hoosiers.

Jones III and Quincy Miller, in particular, cannot bring a passive attitude inside and on the offensive glass against a hungry Wildcat frontline. Kentucky plays only six guys routinely, so constant pressure inside will force Coach Cal to go to an unfamiliar game plan and out of his teamโ€™s comfort zone.

Numbers to Know

ATS

Baylor: 14-15-1

Kentucky: 15-21

O/U

Baylor: 17-14

Kentucky: 15-18-2

Prediction: Iโ€™m not going to be suckered in by the seven-point handout. Take Kentucky -7.

Kansas (-2) vs. North Carolina; O/U: 143.5

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Key to Cashing a Winning Ticket: Will Harrison Barnes Show Up?

While the poignant moment of North Carolina surviving an upset bid from Ohio last night was the buzzer-beater that clanked off right iron at the end of regulation, few will remember how ugly Harrison Barnesโ€™ night was.

In Kendall Marshallโ€™s absence, North Carolinaโ€™s studs needed to pick up the slack in order to advance. Barnes obviously didnโ€™t get the memo. The two-time preseason All-American and sure-fire NBA lottery pick went an atrocious 3-of-17 from the floor.

At the end of regulation, everyone expected the super sophomore to rise to the occasion. No dice. Barnes had two chances to put the upset bid to rest, but airballed a three-point attempt and got stripped on UNCโ€™s final possession.

Kendall Marshallโ€™s (likely) absence from Sundayโ€™s game against Kansas may not cripple the Tar Heels title hopes as much as Barnesโ€™ play. It was not long ago that their star player had problems meshing with Larry Drew, until Marshallโ€™s emergence turned around his season.

If Barnes can step out of Marshallโ€™s shadow, the Heels will prevail against a Kansas team thatโ€™s been limping to this matchup.

Numbers to Know

ATS

Kansas: 17-17-1

North Carolina: 20-16

O/U

Kansas: 13-21-1

North Carolina: 19-17

Prediction: Just when you count Roy Williamsโ€™ team out, theyโ€™ll steal one. Take the points, North Carolina (+2).