Madden 13 Cover Vote: Analyzing How Long LeSean McCoy's Guarantee Will Last

While it's never a bad thing to be confident in yourself, LeSean McCoy's belief that he will win the Madden '13 Cover Vote is not going to translate into long-term success in the tournament. 

If you're not caught up on the matter, this tweet from ESPN's Jason Romano tells you all that you need to know:

"

Talking to Shady, he says that the guarantee on SportsCenter was for the Madden Cover championship. Not the Super Bowl.

— Jason Romano (@JasonRomano) March 21, 2012"

Unfortunately for Shady, the bracket and the matchups he's going to deal with do not suggest that a long stay is going to happen. Actually, if he gets beyond the second round, a major upset has happened. 

Still, there's no reason to be completely negative. For all of you fans of McCoy and the Eagles, we'll start with looking at the first round, which will be a favorable matchup.

Round 1: No. 5 LeSean McCoy vs. No. 12 Reggie Bush

If we're talking about the Reggie Bush of a few years ago, this would be a tough matchup for McCoy. But Bush's Heisman Trophy (and subsequent stripping of said Trophy) is yesterday's news, as is his relationship with Kim Kardashian. 

The fact of the matter is that McCoy is not only a vastly superior back, but he also plays on a much higher-profile team, which matters in the voting. People just don't care about the Dolphins. 

I know, I read that people were protesting outside of the Dolphins' headquarters (via Izzy Gould, South Florida Sun-Sentinel), but watch that video. If you had a minivan, you could fit all of those protesters in your car, and that's at the home of the Dolphins. 

If you can only manage to find a few fans in the area that care about the team, people across the country are not going to vote for one of it's players. McCoy will get past Bush in a walk.

Prediction: McCoy 62%, Bush 38%.

Round 2: No. 5 LeSean McCoy vs. No. 4 Larry Fitzgerald/No. 13 Troy Polamalu

Really quickly, I am calling for a Polamalu upset in the first round. The Steelers are still about as high-profile a team as any in the NFL, and no current player is more identifiable with that team as Polamalu, not even Ben Roethlisberger.

But regardless of who wins the Fitzgerald/Polamalu matchup, McCoy's run will come to an end in the second round. 

The fact is that both Fitzgerald and Polamalu have both been on the cover in the past, which indicates that they are pretty popular athletes. Both men have been around for a long time, are headed to the Hall of Fame and are immensely popular. Shady is one of the game's best backs, but he lacks the "it factor" that it will take to knock off either of these two. 

Prediction A: Polamalu 61%, McCoy 39%.

Prediction B: Fitzgerald 58%, McCoy 42%.

So much for a guarantee. The fact is that McCoy is going to have to do a lot of campaigning to be even close in Round 2. After that, he would still need to win three more rounds. Being confident is one thing, but Shady will not be a cover boy, not this year anyway.

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