Sweet 16 2012: Cinderella Stories Will Come to an End in Round of 16

Yes, the first weekend of the NCAA tournament was pure madness, full of improbable upsets and lower-seed teams that became the darlings of the Dance.

No, those teams won't advance past the Sweet 16.

It's been a good run for 10th-seeded Xavier, 11th-seeded NC State and 13th-seeded Ohio, but looming is Baylor, Kansas and North Carolina, respectively.

And that spells trouble for the three Cinderellas still dancing.

Even if Kendall Marshall doesn't play, Ohio is probably in trouble against the incredibly talented frontcourt that North Carolina boasts. I know the Bobcats are hot, winning 10 of 11 coming into this game, but I don't think they have an answer for Tyler Zeller, John Henson or Harrison Barnes.

NC State has the most impressive tournament resume thus far, knocking talented San Diego State and Georgetown out of the tournament. It's a little surprising for a team that went 0-5 against the elite ACC teams this season (North Carolina, Duke and Florida State).

C.J. Leslie and Richard Howell of NC State against Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey should be an interesting battle, though if Tyler Zeller's performances against NC State in the Wolfpack's three losses to the Tar Heels is any indication—he scored 58 total points and snagged 34 rebounds—they'll struggle against Player of the Year candidate Robinson.

I don't see NC State getting by Kansas.

The team most likely to advance is a good Xavier team that is capable of beating Baylor. Well, at least if Tu Holloway (17.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) and Mark Lyons (15.0 PPG) have big games and help Xavier put up points.

Otherwise, a balanced Baylor offense that has five different players averaging double-digit points and scores 74.9 points per game will be too much for Xavier to overcome.

I expect all three of these teams to fight tooth and nail and keep these games close. But in a season that seems particularly top-heavy in college basketball, the slipper will break for the remaining Cinderellas.

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