Draft Alternatives to Top Free Agents: Forecasting Draft Impact of Free Agency

Free Agency is here! The first of two "Christmas Morning" periods for teams and fans of teams arrives this afternoon at 4ET (although Washington and Dallas already found coal in their stockings on Christmas Eve).

The action will start to move very quickly and each new contract will alter the eventual outcome of the draft next week. We can forecast the rough effect of some of the top free agent signings by matching the top free agents to the players teams with possible interest may target early in the draft if they fail to land them.

QB Peyton Manning: Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami), Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden (Denver)

QB Matt Flynn: Texas A&M QB Ryan Tannehill (Seattle, Miami), Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden (Cleveland)

RB Michael Bush: Boise State RB Doug Martin (Cincinnati)

WR Vincent Jackson: Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd, Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill (Chicago), Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (Tampa Bay) South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery, LSU WR Rueben Randle (Buffalo)

OG Carl Nicks: Stanford OG David DeCastro (Kansas City, Dallas), Midwestern State OG Amini Silatolu (New Orleans)

DE/OLB Mario Williams: USC DE/OLB Nick Perry, Alabama DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw (Seattle, Chicago), Illinois DE Whitney Mercilus (Tennessee)

CB Cortland Finnegan: South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore, Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Dallas)