March Madness 2012: Where the Last Bubble Teams Stand on Selection Sunday

We've arrived at the end of the conference tournament season and are now looking toward the unveiling of the brackets on Sunday night. With less than 12 hours until the selections are announced, there will still be some jockeying for seeding, as well as inclusion in the field. 

At this point, there are still many questions, including how the committee will handle the Pac-12's multiple bubble teams and how it views strong mid-major squads compared to middle-of-the-pack major conference teams. The last wild card in the selection process is whether or not the lone bid thief remaining, St. Bonaventure, will snatch a bid from one of these bubble teams.

I've determined that 59 teams are already in the field via automatic birth or a certain at-large birth.

The Bubble Pool

Xavier (RPI: 44, Sagarin: 55, Pomeroy: 60)

UMass (RPI: 74, Sagarin 84, Pomeroy: 90)

NC State (RPI: 49, Sagarin: 45, Pomeroy: 45)

Miami (RPI: 74, Sagarin: 44, Pomeroy: 37)

Texas (RPI: 48, Sagarin: 27, Pomeroy: 27)

South Florida (RPI: 53, Sagarin: 68, Pomeroy: 65)

Seton Hall (RPI: 71, Sagarin: 48, Pomeroy: 49)  

Drexel (RPI: 71, Sagarin: 56, Pomeroy: 40)

Marshall (RPI: 42, Sagarin: 70, Pomeroy: 69)

Iona (RPI: 41, Sagarin: 52, Pomeroy: 56)

Colorado State (RPI: 27, Sagarin: 76, Pomeroy: 75)

Washington (RPI: 69, Sagarin: 60, Pomeroy, 67)

California (RPI: 36, Sagarin: 31, Pomeroy: 28)

Oregon (RPI: 64, Sagarin: 64, Pomeroy: 62)

Mississippi State (RPI: 44, Sagarin: 67, Pomeroy: 82)

Summit: Oral Roberts (RPI: 42, Sagarin: 80, Pomeroy: 101)

BYU (RPI: 47, Sagarin: 39, Pomeroy: 50)

Total Bubble Teams

Seventeen teams for nine spots or 16 teams for eight spots, depending on the Atlantic 10 championship game result.

The following is my ranking of teams based on how I believe they will be selected to the field, with the top nine making it if Xavier wins the Atlantic 10 (since Xavier already occupies one of these spots), or the top eight if the Bonnies take home the title.

In this process, I tended to weigh RPI more heavily, because the majority of metrics that the committee uses are based on RPI. The Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings provide a point of reference for strength of schedule.

Ranking the Last 17 Bubble Teams

Teams Likely to Avoid the First Four in Dayton

1. Colorado State: A team with a top 30 RPI and top 10 SOS isn't very likely to miss the tournament, especially in a soft bubble year. They benefit from a having a strong conference this season, providing them with a lot of opportunities to get quality wins. They are 3-5 against the Sagarin Top 50, which is a better mark than most other teams on this list.

2. California: The Bears have a very strong RPI which demands inclusion, especially in a down year around the bubble cut line. They do suffer from having no top-50 wins in four opportunities, but I think the computer numbers are just too strong for this squad to miss the Big Dance.

3. Texas: Another team that I believe is safely in the field, just on the basis of the strong SOS. The win over Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament got them over first four territory, especially with all the bubble carnage around them. The 4-11 record against the top 50 isn't ideal, but it sure is better than a lot of other bubble teams.

4. BYU: A top-40 RPI probably gets this team in the field. The weak SOS does give some cause for concern, as well as the 1-6 record against the RPI top 50, but they get the benefit of the doubt because of an injury to top scorer Noah Hartsock toward the end of the season that prevented him from playing until the WCC tournament.

5. NC State: A decent 4-8 record against the top 50 and a strong performance against UNC on Saturday that ended in questionable officiating probably has the Wolfpack on the right side of the bubble. They have top 50 marks in all three ratings used in my analysis, one of only four teams to meet that criteria.

Dayton-Bound

6. Xavier: Xavier has a decent RPI and could make the tournament regardless of the result today. The Bonnies have a top 75 RPI, so a loss is hardly a profile-killer. However, things are a little dicey along the cut line and a drop of even one or two spots might be a deal-breaker for the Musketeers. 

7. Washington: The pick of the Huskies has little to do with statistics and more to do with the fact that I simply don't believe the committee is going to be willing to leave out the regular season champion of a power six conference. I just don't see it, even though I believe their performance throughout the season did less to merit inclusion than most other teams.

8. Seton Hall: Seton Hall lost to RPI 201 DePaul and RPI 162 Rutgers to end the regular season. That’s a rough end to the season. I think they would have been fine if they had either won one game or not gotten blown out by the Blue Demons. That is an ugly loss and Seton Hall didn't do anything in the Big East tourney to cancel out those back-to-back losses.

9. Iona: The Iona-Drexel comparison is very important in the bubble discussion, since it could well mean one gets in and one is left out, as it is in my predictions. Both teams have pretty similar profiles in my estimation—one top 50 RPI win (which is more than some Pac-12 hopefuls can say) and some ugly losses (See: Iona vs. Hofstra and Drexel vs. Norfolk State).

I give Iona the nod on a stronger SOS and a superior RPI by 30 spots. This comparison really comes down to the committee's ability to assess the respective seasons as a whole, or get caught up in Drexel's incredible hot streak.

First Four Out

10. Drexel: See Iona.

11. Miami: An RPI of 74 is very high for a prospective at-large team, but that marquee win at Duke definitely helps to keep them in the conversation. However, a 2-10 overall mark against the top 50 is far from impressive.

12. Miss. St.: I think the Bulldogs have played themselves out of the tournament. They were thoroughly mediocre in the SEC, which was probably the second-worst of the power six conferences. Worse than that, they have generally just looked terrible the last three weeks or so. They still have a chance because the 42 RPI is still good enough to merit a spot in the field.

13. South Florida: They were 1-9 against the RPI top 50. I'm sorry, but when you get that many opportunities, you have to come up with more victories than that, especially with some questionable early season losses.

Next Teams Out

14. Marshall: After getting hammered by Memphis, this team is hard to judge. Their record is kind of mediocre, but they have a couple of nice wins against Southern Miss and Cincinnati. I just get the idea that being blown out by a Memphis Tigers team that is by no means elite isn't a good last impression to leave with the committee.

15. Oregon: I believe this team really suffered from being way off the bubble radar most of the season. I frankly just think that the Pac-12 deserves only two NCAA teams, just like any other conference ranked No. 9 in conference RPI. Oregon’s mediocre computer numbers (all in the 60s) are pretty weak compared to other bubble squads.

16. UMass: The chances that UMass was going to get an at-large were pretty remote going into the Atlantic 10 tourney just because they couldn't really pick up a huge statement win (Temple was the closest thing). After going out before the A-10 final, the Minutemen have almost no shot at an at-large bid.

17. Oral Roberts: A fringe bubble contender at best, having a ranking over 100 in ANY computer ranking spells NIT on every team's NCAA resume. This is especially true if the team doesn't come up with any top-50 wins to move the needle.

If St. Bonaventure were to win the A-10 tournament, the Iona Gaels wouldn't make it in the field, as the bubble would reduce from nine teams to eight. That would also send NC State to Dayton for a first four matchup.