Santa Anita: Grade 3 Las Flores

Izzy Rules, the five-year-old mare trained by Jeff Bonde, has been awesome in her last three starts. Not only has she posted her three best Beyer ratings, but she's done so while not being pushed in any of those races.

I'm not sure her odds will be 2-1 at post time, but if she's longer than 7-5, you're still getting a bargain. I don't see why she can't take the field wire to wire. She's won her last two races over the track and at the current distance.

Patrick Biancone will send out Veloce Canzone, a very lightly-raced four-year-old filly. She's undefeated in her only two career starts, but this is a very tough spot for her. In her last race, she covered eight furlongs in 1:37 and won by under a length.

Home Sweet Aspen is very dangerous. John Sadler has this horse in top form, and she appears to be the main threat. She has three wins in five career starts at Santa Anita and is undefeated in her one start at the distance. I love that she's cutting back in distance and had a great work of 1:12.3 on March 4.

Great Hoz is 3-1, but I cannot figure out why. I do like that Mike Smith picks up the mount on this horse, but she's been marginal in her last four efforts. Great Hoz is winless in her last four starts over the dirt at Santa Anita and is going to be carrying her career high in weight.

She's Cheeky is 9-2 in another puzzling morning line. While this seven-year-old mare hasn't run a poor race in over a year, she also hasn't won in her last 15 races.

Spectacular Sky is a complete mystery. At 9-2, she's offers very good value based off of her last race, which she absolutely dominated. If her form holds from that race, she can run down Izzy Rules. But since she has just two wins in nine career starts, I can't assume we'll see it.

I think Izzy Rules is the horse to beat here and should be keyed over Home Sweet Aspen and Spectacular Sky. In her last race, Izzy Rules romped by over six lengths in 1:14.3, and I don't see why she can't run 1:14 flat.