Bracketology Predictions 2012: Why Texas and 3 Bubble Teams Are in NCAA Tourney

Selection Sunday is fast approaching, so which teams will be headed to the dance? The four bubble teams that now look firmly in the tourney picture are Texas, California, Xavier and Oral Roberts.

Some may disagree with those choices, but these teams have a strong enough mix of pedigree and recent success that they will end up going to the NCAA tournament.

Texas [20-13, 9-9]

The Longhorns will not be overlooked on Selection Sunday. The Longhorns have a strong pedigree of regular season success in recent years, and the team has several blue-chip talents, including point guard Myck Kabongo.  

Texas' RPI (48) and scheduling are mediocre, but one particularly interesting trend does emerge: The Longhorns are 16-2 against teams outside the top 100 and 4-11 against teams in the top 50. That makes this Texas team a distinctly average, mildly underachieving group.

But Texas is the biggest draw in the Big 12 conference, and the team is respectable enough that it would be shocking if they missed the tournament completely.

California [24-9, 13-5]

California is another big school that will squeak into the NCAA tournament. California has a top-40 RPI (36) and a good Pac-12 record, which bodes well for their inclusion. They also have a 9-7 record against top 100 teams.  

On the negative side, they were 0-3 against top 50 teams, which is a glaringly poor mark, and were blown out by UNLV and Missouri.  

But both those teams are quite strong and, when you look at Cal's overall record and school pedigree, it would be very surprising to see them left out of the dance.

Xavier [20-11, 10-6]

Xavier will get in on its recent record of tournament success. The school is a perennial tournament regular and the class of the Atlantic 10 conference. Their RPI (43) is respectable, and they just posted a one-point win over Dayton that kept their tournament hopes alive.  

The school also owns wins over Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Purdue. So, Xavier will not get the middle seed it usually does, but the school will likely sneak into the tournament.

Oral Roberts [27-6, 17-1]

Oral Roberts is one of the top sleeper NCAA tournament picks. The school's impressive Summit League record won't won the selection committee, but its RPI (56) and wins over Xavier (albeit when there were several suspended players) and South Dakota State will help it get in the tournament.

The school also has a recently-built reputation as a tournament sleeper from its near upsets in recent years, so letting it in the dance will inject some great excitement.

So, which bubble teams do YOU think will get in the NCAA tournament?