NCAA Tournament 2012: Predicting and Analyzing the Power Conference Tournaments

Championship Week is already in full swing, but now it is time for the Power Six Conference tournaments.

For the top teams in the country it is their last chance to improve their seeding, for the bubble teams it is a chance for them to either head to March Madness or see their bubble burst and for the rest of the teams it is a chance to become college basketball's next Cinderella story.

Win or go home.

Here is my analysis for each tournament, along with my predictions for each round.

ACC Tournament

When — March 8-11

Where — Phillips Arena, Atlanta, Georgia

NCAA Tournament Locks — North Carolina, Duke, Florida State and Virginia

Work Left — Miami and North Carolina State

Preview — The main question that the ACC Tournament will answer: Will Duke or UNC be a No. 1 seed. Both teams are definitely very worthy, but will likely need to win the ACC Tournament this week to guarantee themselves a top seed. Florida State and Virginia both would also like to improve their seeds for the upcoming NCAA Tournament, and upset victories over UNC and/or Duke would certainly help their case. As far as bubble teams are concerned, Miami and North Carolina State are both long shots, but still have an outside chance to grab at large bids. It would likely take a run to the championship game for either of the these teams to make it. As for the rest of the field, win or go home. There are no more teams who will get an at-large bid.

Predictions

First Round (Thursday)

Maryland over Wake Forest

North Carolina State over Boston College

Clemson over Virginia Tech

Miami over Georgia Tech

Quarterfinals (Friday)

North Carolina over Maryland

North Carolina State over Virginia

Duke over Clemson

Florida State over Miami

Semifinals (Saturday)

North Carolina over North Carolina State

Florida State over Duke

Championship (Sunday)

North Carolina over Florida State

Final Line — North Carolina is just playing too well right now to be beaten by anyone in the ACC. The Seminoles will have a great showing to improve their tournament seed, but they just do not have enough to get the win over Carolina. Duke and Virginia hurt their seeds with early round losses, and ultimately NC State and Miami fall short of making the NCAA Tournament.

Big 12 Tournament

When — March 7-10

Where — Sprint Center, Kansas City, Missouri

NCAA Tournament Locks — Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State

Work Left — Texas

Preview — Much like the ACC Tournament, the Big 12 Tournament is mainly about the battle for a No. 1 seed between Kansas and Missouri. After splitting the season series, whichever one of these teams can win the tournament would be most deserving of a top seed. As far as Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State go, I do not think they will be hurt too badly from losses in the quarterfinals. They obviously want to have good showings, but I feel as if they have much more to gain then they do to lose. Texas is literally right on the bubble, and I feel a win over Iowa State in the quarterfinals, and then a decent showing against Missouri in the semifinals could put them into the tournament. Everybody else, win or go home.

Predictions

First Round (Wednesday)

Texas A&M over Oklahoma

Oklahoma State over Texas Tech

Quarterfinals (Thursday)

Baylor over Kansas State

Kansas over Texas A&M

Missouri over Oklahoma State

Texas over Iowa State

Semifinals (Friday)

Kansas over Baylor

Missouri over Texas

Championship (Saturday)

Missouri over Kansas

Final Line — Missouri snags a No. 1 seed by beating Kansas in the championship game. Kansas falls down to a No. 2 seed with the loss. Like I said with Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State, I do not expect them to be hurt too much by their losses. As far as Texas goes, I think they sneak into one of the play in games as one of the last four teams in.

Big East Tournament

When — March 6-10

Where — Madison Square Garden, New York, New York

NCAA Tournament Locks — Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame and Cincinnati

Should Be In — West Virginia

Work Left — Connecticut, South Florida and Seton Hall

Preview — In my opinion there are only two teams in the Big East who will make decent NCAA Tournament runs. Those teams are Syracuse in Marquette. Everybody else, you are either underachieving or benefiting from the fact that everyone is underachieving. I think the two most interesting teams though are Georgetown and Notre Dame. The Hoyas are the five seed in the Big East tourney, but projected to get a three seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Irish are the complete opposite, as they are a three seed in the Big East, but projected to get a six seed in the NCAA Tournament. I expect both teams to end up with a four or five when everything is said and done. As for the other Tournament locks, I expect them to stay where they are with their seeds. West Virginia will be in the tournament as long as they do not get blown-out in their first game of the tournament. Connecticut will be in as long as they do not lose to Depaul, but obviously they would love to make another strong run to improve their seed. As far as Seton Hall and South Florida go, I think the tournament only has room for the Bulls from South Florida. Seton Hall will need a very strong showing to get in. Everybody else, you better hope you can win five in a row.

Predictions

First Round (Tuesday)

Connecticut over Depaul

Pittsburgh over St. John's

Seton Hall over Providence

Villanova over Rutgers

Second Round (Wednesday)

Connecticut over West Virginia

Pittsburgh over Georgetown

Louisville over Seton Hall

South Florida over Villanova

Quarterfinals (Thursday)

Syracuse over Connecticut

Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

Marquette over Louisville

South Florida over Notre Dame

Semifinals (Friday)

Syracuse over Cincinnati

Marquette over South Florida

Championship (Saturday)

Syracuse over Marquette

Final Line — I hate to have boring predictions, but I really love to have correct predictions, and I just do not see how any can stop Syracuse and Marquette from meeting for the championship. Syracuse though will ultimately be too much for Marquette to handle. I expect all of the other NCAA Tournament locks to end up with four seeds and five seeds with maybe only one moving up to a three or one dropping to a six. Connecticut will do more than enough to make the tournament as maybe an eight or nine seed and West Virginia will likely end up with a ten seed. South Florida will easily find their way into the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed or even a ten seed. Finally, as I said before, I believe Seton Hall will not have enough to make it. Look for them to be one of the first four out.

Big Ten Tournament

When — March 8-11

Where — Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana

NCAA Tournament Locks — Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin and Purdue

Work Left — Northwestern

Preview — After watching years of Big Ten basketball I have learned only one thing, you can never predict what will happen next. With that being said, I would not be surprised if any of the top ten teams won the Big Ten Tournament this year. The reason being, the conference is so strong. Even No. 9 Illinois has beaten multiple teams this year that will be receiving extremely high seeds in the NCAA Tournament. If Michigan State or Ohio State manages to win the tournament, then they could likely move up to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. As for Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin and Purdue, any wins this week will help them either maintain a high seed or help them get their seeds for the NCAA Tournament higher. Northwestern is currently sitting right on the bubble, and I think a first round victory against Minnesota will send them dancing. As for the rest of the field, it is time to win or go home. If you are looking for a Cinderella team in March though, you may want to look here. Like I said, nothing would shock me in this tournament. The Big Ten Tournament defines March Madness.

Predictions

First Round (Thursday)

Illinois over Iowa

Indiana over Penn State

Minnesota over Northwestern

Purdue over Nebraska

Quarterfinals (Friday)

Illinois over Michigan State

Wisconsin over Indiana

Michigan over Minnesota

Ohio State over Purdue

Semifinals (Saturday)

Wisconsin over Illinois

Michigan over Ohio State

Championship (Sunday)

Michigan over Wisconsin

Final Line — Michigan will really improve their seed in the NCAA Tournament by winning the Big Ten Tournament. I could see them going as high as a No. 2 seed. Ohio State will likely stay at a No. 2 with their semifinal loss, while top seeded Michigan State will slide down to a No. 3 after being upset by Illinois. I expect everyone else to maintain their current projected seeds. As far as Northwestern goes, I am sorry, but I think it is going to be first four out for the Wildcats. 

Pac 12 Tournament

When — March 7-10

Where — Staples Center, Los Angeles, California

NCAA Tournament Locks — Yeah, right. Nobody from the mediocre Pac 12 is guaranteed anything.

Work Left — California, Washington, Arizona and Oregon

Preview — Basically this is a tournament to crown the champion of mediocrity. There is no other way to put it. The Pac 12 has been a massive disappointment this year. There are even some mid-major conferences who are stronger than the Pac 12. Anyways, two of the four teams I mentioned above will find their way to stumble into the tournament. Basically it is going to come down to which two survive the longest. There is also always the chance that some even more mediocre team can run the table through the tournament, and grab an automatic bid into March.

Predictions

First Round (Wednesday)

Washington State over Oregon State

UCLA over USC

Stanford over Arizona State

Colorado over Utah

Quarterfinals (Thursday)

Washington over Washington State

Arizona over UCLA

California over Stanford

Oregon over Colorado

Semifinals (Friday)

Washington over Arizona

California over Oregon

Championship (Saturday)

Washington over California

Final Line — I originally had Stanford making a run to the Championship game, but I figured although probable, it would make things extremely confusing and hard to explain. Instead it will come down to the four tournament contenders in the semifinals. Basically it will be like a play in game for the NCAA Tournament. I think Washington and California will win the two semifinals and head to the championship, where the Huskies get the automatic bid. California will likely be in as well because of making the title game, but they will have to wait until Sunday to know for sure. As for Arizona and Oregon, enjoy the NIT Tournament. As for the rest of you, improve in the offseason so we do not have to suffer through another mediocre season of Pac 12 basketball.

SEC Tournament

When — March 8-11

Where — New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, Louisiana

NCAA Tournament Locks — Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt and Alabama

Work Left — Mississippi State and Tennessee

Preview — The story all week from the SEC will be about Kentucky. Can anyone topple the nation's No. 1 team. Highly doubtful considering they rolled through the SEC with a perfect 16-0 record. Out of the top four teams I expect them to hold onto the current seeds they are projected to get in the NCAA Tournament. The real battle comes down between Mississippi State and Tennessee. Right now many projections do not have the Vols of Tennessee getting into the field of 68, but I think they could very well qualify along with Mississippi State for the NCAA Tournament.

Predictions

First Round (Thursday)

Arkansas over LSU

Alabama over South Carolina

Auburn over Ole Miss

Mississippi State over Georgia

Quarterfinals (Friday)

Kentucky over Arkansas

Florida over Alabama

Tennessee over Auburn

Vanderbilt over Mississippi State

Semifinals (Saturday)

Kentucky over Florida

Vanderbilt over Tennessee

Championship (Sunday)

Kentucky over Vanderbilt

Final Line — The most interesting matchup will likely be the semifinal battle between Vanderbilt and Tennessee. If the Vols could win that it would basically solidify their tournament spot. Even though I have them losing that game to Vandy, I still think they make it as one of the last four teams in. Everybody else will basically do what we expect. Vandy should improve to maybe a No. 5 seed by making the finals, but Kentucky will run off and hide. Nobody will stop the Big Blue Nation until the NCAA Tournament.