Fantasy Football Out on a Limb, Vol. 19: Bet on Willie Parker over Chris Johnson

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb.  I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week.  I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch.  To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two on one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other.  Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points. 

For the playoffs I will pick one matchup for Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver

Scoring
6 points for rushing or receiving TD
4 points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard. 

Last Week
Donovan McNabb (19.0) beat Philip Rivers (12.15) WHICH I WON.
Adrian Peterson +3 [23.3(20.3 actual plus 3 spotted points) beat Michael Turner (10.9) WHICH I LOST.
Derrick Mason (7.1) beat Vincent Jackson (0.0) WHICH I WON.
Record:  2-1

Season Record
Regular Picks:  52-33 (.612)
Super Stretch Picks:  8-8 (.500)
Playoff Picks:  2-1 (.667)
Overall:  62-42 (.596)

Running Backs

Willie Parker over Chris Johnson
Here’s another case where a player, Parker in this case, faces a more fantasy friendly Defense against San Diego than Johnson does against Baltimore.  Pittsburgh is going to want to limit the hits on Big Ben so Parker can make up for a disappointing regular season with a heavy workload.  The Ravens are playing incredible football right now.  I wouldn’t want to face them.

Wide Receiver
 
Muhsin Muhammad over Justin Gage +1.5
I’ll take the elder statesman in this battle of former Chicago Bear teammates.  Mushin plays fourth fiddle behind the aforementioned Smith and the Panthers running tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart.  The playoffs, though, often come down to unheralded players making big plays.  Gage is the first option when Tennessee is passing, but Baltimore should make that tough.  I’m spotting Gage 15 yards.

Divisional Round Picks

Quarterback
  
Jake Delhomme over Eli Manning
They both rely heavily on their rushing attack.  I give Delhomme a slight edge for the simple fact that he has Steve Smith at his disposal.  He’s also facing a  Cardinal Defense that, on paper, looks inferior to the Eagles.