2012 NFL Draft: Robert Griffin III's Price Tag for the Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns' roster has more holes than 10 pounds of Swiss cheese. Many fans believe that they need every draft choice we have. Those fans don't want to trade up to get Robert Griffin III.

There are other fans like me that would love to see the Browns get RG3. The question is, how many draft picks will it cost to get the second pick?

The trade we can look at for the closest comparison is the trade between the Giants and the Chargers for Eli Manning in 2004. The deal gave the Chargers Phillip Rivers (the fourth overall pick), and the Giants' third-round pick (66). In addition the Giants gave them their first pick in 2005 (28) and a fifth-round pick (164).

The total value of these assets is only 6.6 percent over the value of the first pick. The value of the 2005 first-round pick is equal to the value of the same position second-round pick in 2004. The future draft pick is reduced by one round in the same way that future payments are discounted. The delay reduces the value in both cases.

To answer the question of how much will it cost the Browns in draft picks to move up to the second pick to get Robert Griffin III, we need to project how many teams and which teams will be pursuing the pick.

Washington Redskins

The 'Skins are the most dangerous team that the Browns may have to outbid to win the deal. They pick sixth. Owner Dan Snyder is willing to do whatever it takes to get the guy he wants. We will know before the draft if the 'Skins are in the bidding or not.

The team started 2011 with Rex Grossman under center. That did not work. John Beck got his shot as well. Grossman is an unrestricted free agent and may not be back. Beck has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt he is a backup at best.

GM Dan Snyder may try to get Colts QB Peyton Manning. If Manning goes there, the price for the second overall pick will be significantly lower. Head coach Mike Shanahan has had a couple of bad seasons and Snyder is famous for his desire to win now.

Manning would give the team the chance to be competitive for the playoffs in 2012. Snyder will pay whatever it takes to do that.

Will Manning choose Washington? I would guess he will want a team closer to the playoffs. The 'Skins are missing a good running game, a stable offensive line and top quality receivers. Their defense is OK but nothing great.

The 'Skins could also be interested in either Kyle Orton, or if Manning goes to the Cardinals, Kevin Kolb.

I would guess the 'Skins would give the Rams their first, second and third picks this season and first next year. to move from six to two. They have been famous for giving away first-round picks. But usually, that is for a veteran in a trade. This time it would be for a single draft pick.

 

Miami Dolphins

The new Miami head coach is Joe Philbin who was the 2011 offensive coordinator of the Packers. My guess is he will want Packer backup QB Matt Flynn as his starter. If so, the Fish will be out of the running for Griffin.

If Philbin passes on Flynn, the Browns should not consider him either. Miami may also be interested in Manning.

The Dolphins would be interesting for Manning, considering the weather and an offense that has some stars. Brandon Marshall is way better than any receiver the Colts had in 2010. LT Jake Long is all-pro and C Mike Pouncey is a keeper. The defense has quality, but issues as well. I think Manning will look at Miami, but go elsewhere.

Miami has the eighth pick. If they don't sign either Flynn or Manning, they would be a player in the auction for the second pick. They have Matt Moore, who won the job after the bye in Week 5 last season. He ended with a passer rating of 87.1 with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He is OK, but the team feels they could make the playoffs with a better signal caller.

They would be willing to give up their first three picks to the Rams, but may not be willing to give them the first-round pick in 2013. To match the Redskins, the Fish would have to include their first and second picks in 2013. Even that might fall short. The Rams don't want to fall too far down the draft this season. In my opinion they will not be a serious competitor for the pick.

 

Seattle Seahawks

The 'Hawks have a gaggle of quarterbacks, but none of them can move the ball. Their starter is Tarvaris Jackson, the Viking reject. He had a passer rating of 79.2, which is not good enough to get even an NFC West team into the playoffs.

They traded for Charlie Whitehurst, but he had a 62.9 passer rating. That is barely enough to qualify as a solid backup. He is an unrestricted free agent and may not be back. Josh Portis is a non-factor.

While they may be a player in the chase for the second pick, the Rams may not be willing to go down to 12 for their first pick. If the 'Hawks get involved, they will have to offer much more than anyone else to win the deal because their pick is too low. The Seahawks may want to be a player, but just don't have enough firepower to win the auction.
 

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikes just drafted a QB in the first round last year, but they have not been very happy with their pick and would likely take Griffin with the third pick if he was there.

Donovan McNabb started the first six games and had a passer rating of a whopping 82.9. Christian Ponder, the surprise 12th pick of last year's draft, took over then and ended up with a 70.1 rating.

While no one is talking about the Vikes, I believe they would jump on Griffin if he was there at three. Then they would try to deal Ponder to one of the teams that needs a QB for whatever they could get. The Vikes may also be willing to trade the pick for less than the Rams are asking.

 

Cleveland Browns

I wonder if the Browns would be willing to give up what it will take to get Griffin, but they should unless it involves three first-round picks. Peyton Manning being released will help keep the cost down unless he goes to the Cardinals.

Even if he does go there, the release of QB Kevin Kolb by the Cardinals could fill the needs of one of the teams looking for a new QB.

The bottom line is that if the 'Skins are involved, the price for Cleveland will be both first-round picks (four and 22), and perhaps their second-round pick (37).

While the Rams will also ask for the first or second pick next year, no other team will be able to match the Browns' offer. Browns GM Tom Heckert should insist on dealing just the two first-round picks for Griffin. But he must be mindful of the possibility of the 'Vikes taking Griffin or dealing that pick for less than the Rams are demanding.

That is what I think. Tell us what you think.

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Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/ and a non-fiction work at http://www.merriam-press.com/.