2012 NFL Free Agents: Gauging the Flight Risk for San Francisco 49ers

Like many teams, the San Francisco 49ers have to look over the roster in the offseason and assess the best way to go about building for 2012. And like many teams, the Niners have key players who are eligible to listen to offers from other teams.

Who they keep and who ends up with another team often comes down to many factors; money being one of them, yes, but also the chance to start, playing time, the possibility to play in the postseason and unknown or “X” factors like playing close to a hometown or college.

Here’s a breakdown of 49er key free agents and an assessment of their chances of ending up on another team.

Alex Smith

Interested Teams: perhaps Seattle, Cleveland, Miami.

Salary Difference: SF offer will be fair.

Playing Time: Starter in SF.

Postseason chances: Best in SF.

X Factors: Harbaugh wanted him in 2011, wants him in 2012.

Flee Factor: Nil.

Chilo Rachal

Interested Teams: St. Louis, Cleveland, Miami, Minnesota, San Diego.

Salary Difference: Not much but will be enough.      

Playing Time: Backup in SF, potential starter elsewhere.

Postseason chances: Best in SF, but will leave for more playing time.

X Factors: Lost his starting job to Adam Snyder.

Flee Factor: High.

Ahmad Brooks

Interested Teams: Many, as OLB is highly desirable. New England, Green Bay, Tennessee and Tampa Bay, to name some.

Salary Difference: Could be significant.

Playing Time: Starter in SF, starter elsewhere.

Postseason chances: SF and other teams like New England.

X Factors: Will be the toughest decision for SF front office: Match or not.

Flee Factor: Moderately high; depends on what he feels team means to him.

Carlos Rogers

Interested Teams: Many, as good corners are in high demand.

Salary Difference: Again, could be significant.

Playing Time: Starter in SF, and starter elsewhere.

Postseason chances: Seem best in SF.

X Factors: In SF defense, became one of league’s best. Does that transfer?

Flee Factor: Moderate to high. Another player who has to factor in the team factor in decision.

Ted Ginn Jr.

Interested Teams: Hard to say but could be more than a few.

Salary Difference: Not that much.

Playing Time: Backup WR, but is one of league’s best returners.

Postseason chances: Seem best in SF.

X Factors: If he had better hands he’d be superstar.

Flee Factor: Moderate to high. He’s a favorite of special teams coach Brad Seely, and he’s had his best success in SF, but he could leave for starting role.

Josh Morgan

Interested Teams: Hard to say.

Salary Difference: Negligible.

Playing Time: Was starter, but the Niners are looking for big help at WR.

Postseason chances: Seem best in SF.

X Factors: Broken leg in October (pictured) hurt marketability.

Flee Factor: Harbaugh said in season re-signing Morgan was a priority.

Dashon Goldson

Interested Teams: Many (Green Bay, New England and Seattle, among others), as high-impact safeties are in demand.

Salary Difference: Could be significant.       

Playing Time: Starter anywhere he goes.

Postseason chances: Seem best in SF.

X Factors: Niners reportedly will use franchise tag to keep him.

Flee Factor: Low, due to Niners' willingness to keep him and then work out long-term deal.

Madieu Williams

Interested Teams: Hard to say.

Salary Difference: Negligible.

Playing Time: Backup in SF, could be starter elsewhere.

Postseason chances: Seem best in SF.

X Factors: Good special teams player as well, which SF likes.

Flee Factor: Moderate to high: Depends on money and Goldson.

Blake Costanzo

Interested Teams: Probably many.

Salary Difference: Could be significant.

Playing Time: Backup ILB but great special teams player.

Postseason chances: Seem best in SF.

X Factors: He’s a star on the NFL’s best special teams, and SF’s re-signing of C.J. Spillman to a larger contract seems to be good news for Costanzo.

Flee Factor: Moderate, but look for Niners to keep him.

Larry Grant

Interested Teams: Should be more than a few.

Salary Difference: Could be significant.

Playing Time: Backup behind one of the best ILBs in the game.

Postseason chances: Seem best in SF.

X Factors: Proved very capable in three games filling in for Patrick Willis.

Flee Factor: High, in that he was paid about $800,000; look for him to score $4-5 million over a three-year deal. And that could be in SF.

Tramaine Brock

Interested Teams: Not many.

Salary Difference: Negligible.

Playing Time: Backup DB in SF, could start for right team (Green Bay?)

Postseason chances: Seems best in SF, but Packers need lots of defensive help.

X Factors: Didn’t really get a full chance to prove himself worth big contract.

Flee Factor: Moderate. May not make team in 2012.

Brett Swain

Interested Teams: Few.

Salary Difference: Negligible.

Playing Time: Backup thrust in starter role late in season.

Postseason chances: Was in Green Bay and in SF, either being his best chance.

X Factors: Capable third or fourth receiver.

Flee Factor: High. Was out of football when the Niners signed him in midseason.

Shawntae Spencer

Interested Teams: Few.

Salary Difference: Probably will take a pay cut to continue in NFL.

Playing Time: Lost man in SF.

Postseason chances: Anywhere he goes.

X Factors: Lost starting and backup roles as nagging injuries left him behind.

Flee Factor: High. With good health, he could return to decent form.

Moran Norris

Interested Teams: Very few.

Salary Difference: Negligible.

Playing Time: Limited role as backup.

Postseason chances: Depends on if he signs with a team like Minnesota (blocking back for Adrian Peterson?) 

X Factors: Lost job to rookie Bruce Miller, so it may be time for 11-year vet to say goodbye.

Flee Factor: High, either through retirement or free agency.