Daytona 500 Qualifying: Why Winning Pole Will Propel Carl Edwards to Victory

Carl Edwards will ride the poll to victory next weekend at Daytona. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

Sure, only nine pole-sitters in the race's history have actually won the race, and it's been 12 years since a pole-sitter reached glory (Dale Jarrett in 2000). But that is also the longest duration between pole-sitters who have achieved victory in the race's history, meaning I will now incorporate the Gambler's fallacy and state that a pole-sitter is due to win.

And why not Carl Edwards?

He had a fantastic 2011, losing a heartbreaking final race to Tony Stewart that cost him a championship. A win at Daytona would go a long way toward finally putting last year behind him and starting strong in 2012.

From ESPN:

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"It seems like every media question and all anybody says is, `How great would it have been to have one more point and how did you deal with that this offseason?' Edwards said. "I think this is nice to come here and show everyone that, hey, it isn't just talk. Everybody at Roush Fenway went back and worked hard and kept their heads down and dug.

"This is very special. It's not a driving accomplishment. This is a team accomplishment, this pole."

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Edwards took second in the race last year, his best performance in the Dayton 500 in his career. He's earned two race wins in the 11 poles he's won in his career, so it isn't out of the question that he could pull off the feat.

And he certainly isn't lacking for any motivation this year, which is why I say that this year's pole-sitter will buck history and win the Daytona 500.

And I'm still sticking to it.

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets have the perfect amount of foam at the top.