2012 NFL Mock Draft: Breaking Down Need vs. Value for Each 1st Round Pick
The most important part of the NFL draft is deciding between need and value in each and every pick. Landing both of them it is what we like to call "the jackpot."
Certain teams favor value in the draft and will never reach for the sake of need.
Others will do anything to fill positions of need regardless of the value.
The debate is one of the reasons the draft is so compelling and it changes each and every year.
1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
JACKPOT: The Colts need to take charge of their future.
2. St. Louis Rams (4-12): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
NEED: The Rams desperately need a wide receiver, but as good as Blackmon is he isn't on the elite level of top five receivers like Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green.
3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC
HALF-POT: The Vikes need a new a new offensive tackle and Kalil is the best in this draft, but he's not on the level of Jake Long or Joe Thomas.
4. Cleveland Browns (2-14): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
REACH: The Browns don't desperately need a quarterback and RG3 isn't value either. He's a potential based pick with unbelievable upside.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
JACKPOT: Best available player at a position of need.
6. Washington Redskins (5-11): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
REACH: Major need but a potential-based pick with no guarantee of production.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
VALUE: Claiborne fills a need but not their biggest need. Could be the steal of the draft though.
8. Carolina Panthers (6-10)*: Quinton Coples, DE, UNC
VALUE: Coples is simply too talented to pass up here. There is a bit of a risk, but he could be an elite player.
9. Miami Dolphins (6-10)*: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
JACKPOT: Best available player at a position of need - assuming they land QB in free agency.
10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama
JACKPOT: Best available pass rusher for a team needing exactly that.
11. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)*: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina
VALUE: Ingram is a rising prospect with great pass rush skills. Fits into a 4-3 because of strength and leverage.
12. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)*: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
VALUE: Another great fit for a coach looking for a instinctive player on the inside of his new defense.
13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
NEED: The Cards have a major need for an offensive lineman but the jury is still out on Martin, who may be too finesse.
14. Dallas Cowboys (8-7): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
JACKPOT: The best interior lineman in the draft will give the Cowboys an opportunity to balance their offense.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
JACKPOT: Floyd's playmaking skills are a perfect compliment to the Eagles' receivers.
16. New York Jets (8-8): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia
NEED: The Jets need to revamp their run game and that starts on the offensive line.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (via OAK 8-8): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
VALUE: The former Crimson Tide corner is too good to pass up here.
18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC
NEED: Pass rusher fits a need, but Perry could as easily be a bust as a superstar.
19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
NEED: Adams' size and talent helps this line immediately.
20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
REACH: Brockers could be great, but he could also take plenty of time to develop.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
NEED: Cincy needs to find a way to replace Cedric Benson and he's the best available.
22. Cleveland Browns (via ATL 10-6): David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech
REACH: The Browns desperately need a weapon and Wilson is a threat to score every time he touches the football.
23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
VALUE: Jenkins has reestablished himself as an elite cornerback in this draft.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Devon Still, DT, Penn State
VALUE: Still is the best available player on the board.
25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State
NEED: Cox's versatility is a great fit for this team.
26. Houston Texans (10-6): Mark Barron, S, Alabama
VALUE: The best safety in this draft is a great fit for a team that continues working towards boosting their secondary.
27. New England Patriots (via NO 13-3): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
NEED: Wright is a vertical threat and that is exactly what they need right now. He may never develop into anything more though.
28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
VALUE: Dennard continues to fall down the board, but his physical style is a great fit for this Packers team.
29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
JACKPOT: The Ravens had trouble at center this season and Konz is a great fit and value.
30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
REACH: The 49ers want more weapons, but Jeffery is going to be hit or miss. End of story.
31. New England Patriots (13-3): Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
REACH: Smith continues to rise up draft boards and the Pats have needs at every level of the defense, but it remains to be seen if he's a legitimate first round pick.
32. New York Giants (9-7): Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
JACKPOT: The reigning Super Bowl champs hit a Grand Slam with the draft's best tight end.
*Order determined by coin flip at NFL Scouting Combine
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