Chavez Jr. vs. Rubio: Why Rubio Will Be Knocked out Early

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. has come a long way since fighting nothing but cupcakes, and will no doubt have his hands full with Marco Antonio Rubio. The more I look at this first big main event of the year, the more I am convinced that Rubio is walking into a certain and quick doom. 

Let's take all the bad we know about Chavez: he trains light when he is uninterested in the fight and has been known to take on some easy tests. 

You can make an argument that since a no-contest was declared against Troy Rowland in 2009, Chavez has been distancing himself from the label as someone who would pad his stats. 

John Duddy was a worthy opponent at the time, and Sebastian Zbik another worthy foil. It's safe to say that Chavez is as battle tested as he was going to get walking into the ring against Rubio. 

The key here is that Rubio can only win if the fight is a short one, and everyone knows it. The longer this bout lingers, the more heavily it weighs in the favor of the more polished and talented Chavez. 

Rubio knows this and will walk head first into a brawl that will feature a great deal of action in the first three rounds. Rubio has no hope if he doesn't mix it up immediately, and the element of surprise for that tactic is long gone. 

Rubio hasn't fought for a title since 2009, when he lost to Kelly Pavlik. His 10 wins since then only featured one that went the distance. 

This is not a marathon man we are talking about, and the battle will have to come down to early-round defense, chins and punching power. 

Both fighters come in with middling power, and Chavez's defense can be suspect at times. It makes you wonder where I would ever see an early knockout coming from. 

I have no confidence in Rubio's hand speed and footwork. The 31-year-old has lost a couple of steps and will be forcing the issue against a kid that loves nothing more than mixing it up. 

Junior is an offensive puncher and this will be a melee that Rubio will not be able to survive. If no knockout comes, Chavez still has the legs to outlast what will be an epic start to the fight. 

HBO did us fans a favor by starting the year off with what will be an explosive bout right out of the gate, and one that Julio Cesar Chavez J. will control. 

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