Super Bowl XLVI: Sports Betting Breakdown by Position

Quarterback – For fans of Tom Brady, you are not going to like this report. The duty of the article is to determine what quarterback is playing better going into the Big Game, not who will be in the Hall of Fame first. Eli Manning has keyed New York’s five consecutive wins and covers and got his merit badge for the beating he took against San Francisco. Manning has been sharper the last five weeks in a quarterback comparison. Brady is showing the first signs of an aging quarterback by making throws he would have checked out of two years ago. Brady has three interceptions in the postseason compared to two picks in his previous eight games. Is Brady capable of having a near perfect game after an admittedly “I sucked badly” performance? Unquestionably, however it’s not a guarantee anymore. Edge – Giants 1 point

RBs and Receivers – The running games for each team is difficult to assess. Both have been generally ineffective all season with New England at 4.0 yards per attempt and New York at 3.6 YPA, yet since December both have come up with the big yards when needed. Reliable BenJarvus Green-Ellis does the bulk of the work for the Patriots and hits holes effectively. Ahmad Bradshaw brings versatility, while Brandon Jacobs is a sledgehammer. Both passing offenses are potent, just doing it in different ways. The pairing of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is unparalleled and both have the size and speed to over-match safeties in almost any coverage, while Wes Welker just keeps the chains moving for Brady’s offense. Before the playoffs, we said here at Don Best Insider the Giants trio of Hakeen Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham was the best receiving threesome in the postseason and those words have been prophetic.  Edge – Push

Offensive Line- Though both offenses are known for throwing the pigskin, which offensive line  can establish a running attack and create balance will give their team the advantage? For either squad that does not suggest a dominant run performance of 150 yards or more, rather, regularly achieving four yards on first down and converting on third and shorts. Each defense can bring the pressure and neither quarterback is especially mobile, making a clean pocket imperative. As a unit, New England is slightly more effective. Edge – Patriots 1 point 

Defensive Front 7 – The Giants defensive line is essentially four defensive ends with a couple of players masquerading as tackles. This is why New York has permitted 4.5 yards a carry. How the Giants stop the run is having its tackles shoot the gaps with linebackers right behind them to make tackles. The G-Men have been vulnerable all year to offenses that set the edge and running backs that can hit the hole quickly. What New York is noted for is getting after the quarterback with its front four and making opposing QB’s make quicker decisions or sacking them. New England NT Vince Wilfork is playing the best stretch of football of his career, occupying two offensive linemen and puncturing the pocket when the opponent wants to throw. Edge-rushers Rob Ninkovich and Mark Anderson are underrated in manufacturing pressure in passing downs, but pedestrian against the run.  LB’s Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes have to not get caught in the scrum and make plays at the line of scrimmage. Edge – Giants 1-point

Secondary- The winner here is by default more than execution. New England’s secondary is arguably the worst-ever playing for a Lombardi Trophy. There is not one individual in the secondary you can point to with an above average skill, and even last week at the most critical times, the communication repeatedly broke down against Baltimore, who could have won the game because of these failures. The proof is in the numbers where the Pats last line of defense has conceded 7.5 yards per pass attempt vs. teams that averaged 6.7. For most of the season the Giants secondary was like watching “The View”, it was awful in allowing 263.6 YPG. Since Dec. 18, they have dropped that figure to 209.3 YPG with better cohesiveness and a steadier pass rush. Edge – Giants 2 points

Special Teams –As noted previously, neither places a great deal of effort in this area, their goal seemingly is just to be as average as possible. Edge – None

Coaching – If Bill Belichick can win a Super Bowl with this team’s defense, he will cement himself as the greatest coach in the history of the NFL. New England always comes up with a new wrinkle for big games and Belichick challenges his players with uncommon game plans. Though Tom Coughlin does not seem this way, he exemplifies his team and gets hot as a head coach, making all the right calls when the stars align. Coughlin will never be thought of as Top 5 head coach because of some of the colossal Giants meltdowns, but few coaches have multiple Super Bowl rings (possibly). Edge – Patriots 1.5-points

Intangibles – When thinking of these two teams, the words fate and destiny-immediately come to mind. The Giants path to this Super Bowl is eerily similar to four years ago and is matched with the same foe. Nothing can replace a perfect season, but a chance for retribution would be special for the Patriots, as would winning one for the departed Myra Kraft, the team’s unofficial guardian angel. Edge – Patriots 1-points

Tally Edge - New York by 0.5 points