Chavez Jr vs. Rubio: Middleweight Champ Packs Too Big a Punch for Rubio

It's hard enough going up against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. When you are giving up nearly 20 pounds, it's darn-near impossible.

Chavez, who is undefeated in 46 fights, has 31 knockouts to his name. Most recently, he scored a fifth-round TKO against Peter Manfredo Jr. in November. His competition on Saturday, veteran Marco Antonio Rubio, is an experienced fighter with plenty of knockout power, but he's also 5'10", 160 pounds.

Said middleweight contender Andy Lee, via Boxing News 24:

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Chavez comes to the ring, blows up a lot after the weigh-in, and comes to the ring maybe near 175 to 180. So I think Chavez probably will be a little bit too physically strong for him…I would favor Chavez.

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We've seen Rubio fight against bigger boxers before. Both David Lemieux and Kelly Pavlik gave him trouble and Lemieux simply had a bad strategy. Lemieux was dominating through the first six rounds, but he tired himself out way too quickly and Rubio—the experienced fighter that he is—capitalized on the opportunity, scoring a TKO in the seventh round.

Chavez is also 25 years old and just hitting his prime while Rubio is 31 years old. Rubio would likely need a knockout to win this fight. Chavez is just too big to stand in with for the full 12 rounds. The only problem is, Chavez has a very good chin and that's going to make it hard for Rubio to knock him out.

Chavez obviously needs to fight smart. If he gets reckless out there or starts off too fast against Rubio, there's the chance he could find himself on the wrong end of a counterpunch. Rubio will likely come into the fight with a honed game plan, looking to take care of Chavez the same way he did Lemieux.

But in the end, I see Chavez's advantage in size being the difference and keeping him undefeated.