Super Bowl 2012 Line: Predicting Spread Movement Before Kickoff

The preliminary spread for the Super Bowl between the New England Patriots and New York Giants has already moved. It’s bounced between the Patriots being favored by 3.5 down to 2.5 and settled in now at 3.

However, many books are offering the Pats -3 at +105, rather than the normal juice at -110. The Giants +3 would cost some extra vigorish if you want to back them as underdogs, currently sitting at at -125.

So, when should you get your bet in?

That depends on who you think is going to win.

The public has yet to start pouring on the majority of the billions of dollars expected to come in on this game.

Should that money go to the Patriots’ side, and it probably will with New England expected to be at -4, you can wait for a better deal backing the Giants than what is currently out there.

If you really think the Giants are going to win, you should hold off until the line starts sliding back towards the Pats and you get sweeter odds on both the moneyline and a more standard juice on the spread.

If you want to back New England, now is the time to do it.

The line is still down to -2.5 if you look around, and getting it around +105 is absolutely a steal.

There’s going to be a ton of money coming in from both sides over the 12 days and up until kickoff, but there most likely will not be better value to be found than New England right now.

Jump all over that if you think it’s going to be close or if the Pats will cover, which they should.