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EPIC NFL Thanksgiving Slate 🙌

NFL Playoffs: Sunday 6-Pack on New England Patriots and Conference Championships

Erik FrenzJun 4, 2018

History will be made this championship weekend. Sure, you probably hear that phrase every single year, but there are a lot of historic accomplishments that can be achieved this weekend.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are chasing history, with Brady just one win short of tying Joe Montana's all-time record for postseason wins by a quarterback. Belichick, meanwhile, is just one win short of tying Chuck Noll for all-time postseason wins for a head coach.

The legacy of both have been set in stone, but another paragraph could be added with two more wins.

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We explore this and other notes in this week's Sunday six pack.

These Four Teams Are No Strangers to Conference Championship Weekend

The four teams playing in today's conference championship games have appeared in a combined 25 conference championships.

The Patriots are uniquely positioned to become the first team in NFL history to make six trips to the Super Bowl in a 16-year span with a win over the Ravens. The Ravens, on the other hand, have a chance to become the first expansion team with two trips to the Super Bowl in their first 16 years as a franchise.

The Giants are an unblemished 4-0 in NFC Championship games, and they will put that record to the test against a 49ers franchise that has lost more NFC Championship games than any other franchise in NFL history, but has also been to more of them than any franchise other than the Dallas Cowboys (14).

If the Patriots Have a Chance of Stopping Ray Rice, Brandon Spikes May Be the Key

One of a few key factors in Ray Rice's 83-yard touchdown run was a poor angle by linebacker Gary Guyton, and although he's one of the 16 players being held over from the last playoff meeting, he won't likely see much of the field—if any of it other than the sideline—on Sunday.

He hasn't played a snap in the team's past three games, after playing just 12 snaps in the Broncos game. In fact, those 12 snaps were his only snaps of the previous five games. He missed a few games as a healthy scratch, and earned just 33.6 percent of the team's total defensive snaps on the season.

Besides, this type of game isn't his cup of Sunday tea. This, instead, is Brandon Spikes' bowl of punch. #Powwwww

The linebacker from Florida has always been lauded for his run support, but his impact on the team's ability to defend the run has been evident, especially this year.

The defense allowed 90.9 rush yards per game through the first nine games of the season, but finished the season ranked 17th in run defense. A big reason for that was Spikes' absence for seven of the season's final eight games.

They allowed 4.3 yards per rush with him as opposed to 4.92 without him, and they allowed 103 rushing yards per game with him as opposed to 131 without him.

None of this is to imply that the Patriots will stop the Ravens 10th-ranked running game cold because of Spikes, but he certainly helps their chances.

Under Pressure

The teams in the NFC Championship game are known for their ability to get pressure on the quarterback, and if it comes down to that, the Giants hold the edge. With help from Pro Football Focus, we get a unique look at how each quarterback has performed under pressure.

Both Alex Smith and Eli Manning were under pressure about the same percentage of their dropbacks—Manning on 38.4 percent and Smith on 37.5. Manning's passer rating, however, was 80.1 compared to Smith's 63.2.

If the defenses have their way in this game, as many expect they will, New York's cool-headed quarterback could give them the edge. 

Patriots Defense Has "Done Its Job"

The Patriots defense gave up the second-most pass yards of any defense in NFL history this year and was the source of much of the criticism on sports talk radio in the northeast. 

An interesting stat found its way across my eyes this week. Thanks to my friend Scott Kacsmar of Pro Football Reference and Cold, Hard Football Facts, we know that the Patriots haven't given up more than 27 points on defense in any game this season (one of the touchdowns scored against them in the 34-31 loss to the Bills was a pick-six, not allowed by the defense), and are one of only two defenses in the NFL that can make that claim; the other is the San Francisco 49ers.

But that's not all—Kerry Byrne of Cold, Hard Football Facts tracks a stat he calls "Bendability," which basically measures the bend-don't-break defense based on a simple formula of yards allowed/points allowed.

The Patriots finished the season ranked second in that stat, behind only the San Francisco 49ers.

It can't be a coincidence that both teams are still in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy.

Tom Brady and Eli Manning Have Eerily Similar Postseason Numbers

Much has been made of Eli Manning's bold statement that he is an elite quarterback in the class of Brady and others, and his numbers this season have gone a long way in proving that.

His numbers in the postseason, though, have long since proven that fact.

This is being made up as a big postseason for both these quarterbacks, but neither Brady nor Eli has anything left to prove except that they can do it again.

Predictions

The Patriots' high-powered offensive machine is like nothing the Ravens defense has seen this year. The experience of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will help, but if the Patriots can protect Tom Brady, they will win handily.

The Ravens should keep it close, though, which has me thinking 27-24 Patriots.

In the NFC, the 49ers are riding high off an emotional win and are set up for a letdown against a team that's been there before and has proven their defense can travel and get up for its biggest tests. The Giants look poised to make another trip to the Super Bowl with a 17-13 win.

You heard right—look for a Super Bowl XLII rematch pitting the Patriots and the Giants in Indianapolis.

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter. 

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