AFC Championship Predictions: Wes Welker Will Guide Patriots to Victory

One way or another, the most important player in the AFC Championship Game will be Wes Welker. He will also be the game's difference-maker, even if the numbers don't quite show it. 

When the teams last met in 2010, the Patriots beat the Ravens 23-20 in overtime. In that game, Welker caught seven passes for 53 yards. That looks pretty good, doesn't it?

But while Welker's big-play ability didn't really stand out, look at what the other Patriots' players did against Baltimore.

	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Deion Branch	9	98	1
Aaron Hernandez	4	61	0
Danny Woodhead	5	52	0
Rob Gronkowski	1	24	0

Every one of those is better than an average of 10 yards a catch. If you can do that against Baltimore, their strong run defense is neutralized. 

So, the Ravens will have a choice in this one. They can either focus on Welker and let that happen again, or allow him to run wild. If Welker is given room, his career with the Patriots indicates that the Ravens will be in for a long day.

	Receptions	Yards	Yards Per Reception	Touchdowns
2007	112	1175	10.5	8
2008	111	1165	10.5	3
2009	123	1348	11	4
2010	86	848	9.9	7
2011	122	1569	12.9	9

Welker is too quick. If he is not given a heavy dose of attention from the defense, Welker will make big plays all game and it will be a blowout.

The only chance is to lock Welker up and put the other players in single coverage. The thought there is that they will catch the ball, but since they're not as fast, the yards after the catch won't be as great. 

That is a good thought, but it is not going to work against the Patriots. 

They have too many weapons for that theory to work. You may be able to stop those targets pretty quickly after they catch the ball, but Tom Brady will methodically move the ball all game long.

With that, the Ravens will need a bad day from too many of Brady's targets. That is not going to happen, even against Baltimore.

The numbers Welker puts up may or may not be all that impressive, but his presence will be so dominant that the Ravens will have to let other New England targets run free in favorable matchups. 

Welker was out when the teams played in the playoffs two years ago, while Gronkowski and Hernandez were not on the team. Now, Welker is in the lineup and so are both tight ends. Welker's presence will open too much space for the rest of New England's weapons. As a result, the Patriots offense will be overwhelming in a victory. 

Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 16

Follow @mdixon1985