NFL Playoff Picks 2012: 49ers and Ravens Will Prove Defense Wins Championships

No matter how many times Drew Brees or Tom Brady rack up 5,000 yard seasons, defense will still be paramount in the NFL.

This is not to diminish the outstanding years these players had, but their teams won't win on their arms alone.

The Packers are 15-1 with a devastating offensive attack, but they will fall short this postseason, unless their defense improves. They have gone from the fifth ranked defense last year to the 19th ranked defense this year. They don't stop the run and they depend on turnovers to get the ball back to Aaron Rodgers. That will not work in the postseason—there must be a balance.

The strongest defensive teams remaining in the postseason are the Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers. Each of them feature a better than average running game as well. Only two of them can play for it all. I'm betting that will be Baltimore and San Francisco.

Baltimore's Route to the Super Bowl

Baltimore and Houston are nearly equal defensively, so it will come down to turnovers, or the defense that blinks first. Without their starting QB, and with so much inexperience, the Texans have too big a hill to climb to knock off the Ravens on the road.

Third downs will be key, and don't expect T.J. Yates to be too efficient in a raucous M&T Bank Stadium. He will turn it over and the Ravens will dominate time of possession. The Ravens and the Patriots are on a collision course for the AFC Championship. The Patriots will put an end to Tebow-mania in their playoff matchup and will be waiting for Baltimore.

In the AFC Championship game, Tom Brady will see pressure from the Ravens' front four. Pressure without blitzing is key to disrupting Tom Brady's rhythm. Baltimore will force the requisite turnovers needed to defeat the Patriots. The Patriots had 13 turnovers all season, eight of those came in the three losses. It will key the Ravens victory.

San Francisco's Route to the Super Bowl

The Niners will face their toughest test when they take on the Saints at home. When their physicality overcomes the Saints receivers and backs, they will march on.

The Niners' crowd will turn the tables on the Saints. As long as Alex Smith takes care of the ball, they will defeat the Saints. The Niners are set up perfectly for keeping the Saints' offense off the field, which is key to beating a team like New Orleans. As much as they throw, stopping the Saints' rushing attack is huge. They have not run for 100 yards in any loss this season. The Niners are tops in the league against the run. Limiting them on the ground will key the minor upset.

The Niners will face the Giants, yes the Giants in the NFC Title Game. The Giants are playing at a peak level right now, especially in the run game. That is the key for their game against the Packers. As I mentioned, the Packers inability to stop the run will be the fatal flaw for the Packers.

New York's success won't last long. The Giants will not win at San Francisco. The Niners will erase the Giants' run game and force Eli Manning into the turnovers the Niners thrive on. The Niners are the only team better than the Packers in the +/- category.

In a grind it out game, the Niners will defeat the Giants to make it an all-Harbaugh Super Bowl.

In Week 12, the Ravens pass rush was too much for the Niners then, and will be again in the Super Bowl. The Ravens' deep threats have established themselves more since that game as well. They will bring a bit more balance into the rematch to stretch the Niners a bit.

The Ravens will capture their second Super Bowl victory in franchise history, but it all starts with defense.

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