Rafael Nadal: 4 Reasons Rafa Has No Shot at Winning Australian Open 2012

Rafael Nadal might as well skip the Australian Open, because he is not going to win it. Nadal has a chance to have a strong 2012 season.

With just a little luck, or lack of bad luck, he will avoid injuries that slowed him last season. We should see Nadal attacking the court and confounding plenty of opponents, it is just not going to happen at this particular tournament. 

Struggles Down Under

Of all the grand slams, this is where Nadal has found the least amount of success. He has made the finals just one time. 

He made that trip in 2009, and he won the tournament, but the fact remains that this is not a setting Nadal can easily dominate. 

Last year, he was ousted in the quarterfinals after tweaking his hamstring. 

Hard Court Struggles

Of all the surfaces, Nadal is least comfortable on the hard-court surface he will be playing on in the Australian Open. 

Nadal has never been as proficient on the hard court, and those struggles have not lessened. Rafa did not win one hard-court tournament in 2011. 

Lackluster Lead in

In his tune-up for the Open, Nadal was easily dispatched by Gael Monfils, 6-3, 6-4, in the semifinals of the Qatar Open. 

This is a bad sign for Nadal. Rafa has been able to easily handle the French opponent in the past. This was just Monfils' second win in 11 matches against Nadal. 

It is clear that Rafa was not ready to play at his peak. 

Novack Djokovic

Even if Nadal is able to overcome the previous factors and have a deep run in this tournament, he is likely going to have to face Djokovic at some point. And that is not a task he is ready to handle. 

In 2011, Nadal went head-to-head with Novak six times, and lost all six. That streak will not end at the Australian.