How to Improve on the NHL Standings

A comparison of three systems for Ranking NHL teams

 

Here is a table comparing the NHL standings they would be if a logical system were used. The first set are the standings after Feb 18, the second uses 3 points per game, and the third is a straight up won lost %. Note that the tie between Bos. , Buff. and Car. Is resolved when Car is moved to their Free Spot.

 I think the most interesting thing here is just how little movement there is in the standings. In the East, while there is some churn the playoff teams remain the same and no team moves more than two places: in the West various combinations of PHX, CGY, VAN and COL battle for the last two positions.

The clearest analysis comes from the 3^rd with W/L%  only this one eliminates the GP variable, with TO having played 57 and DET at 62 a variance of 5 GP.

conf       Team     GP          Pts                          Team     3PTS                      Team     w%act

                                                                                                                                               

1              OTT        59           73                           OTT        128                         OTT        0.576

2              NJ           60           73                           NJ           120                         NJ           0.567

3              MTL       60           73                           Pitt         118                         Pitt         0.559

4              Pitt         59           71                           PHIL       116                         MTL       0.533

5              NYR        61           67                           MTL       114                         PHIL       0.508

6              PHIL       59           65                           CAR        112                         BOS        0.500

7              BOS        58           64                           NYR        106                         NYR        0.492

8              CAR        62           64                           BOS        106                         CAR        0.484

 

9              BUFF     59           64                           BUFF     102                         ATL         0.475

10           ATL         61           62                           NYI         100                         BUFF     0.475

11           NYI         59           62                           WAS      96                           NYI         0.475

12           WAS      60           62                           FLA         96                           WAS      0.467

13           FLA         61           60                           TB           94                           FLA         0.443

14           TB           59           56                           TO          90                           TB           0.424

15           TO          57           54                           ATL         88                           TO          0.421

 

conf       Team     GP          Pts                          Team     3PTS                      Team     w%act

                                                                                                                                               

1              DET        62           89                           DET        156                         DET        0.677

2              DAL        63           79                           DAL        132                         DAL        0.587

3              ANA       63           73                           MINN    122                         MINN    0.576

4              MINN    59           72                           ANA       118                         SJS          0.525

5              SJS          59           70                           SJS          116                         ANA       0.524

6              NASH    61           69                           NASH    114                         NASH    0.508

7              PHX        64           66                           PHX        110                         CGY        0.492

8              CGY        59           66                           COL        108                         VAN       0.492

 

9              VAN       59           66                           CGY        104                         PHX        0.484

10           COL        64           65                           STL         104                         COL        0.469

11           CBJ         61           63                           VAN       102                         STL         0.466

12           STL         58           63                           CBJ         102                         CHI         0.466

13           CHI         58           60                           CHI         96                           EDM      0.450

14           LA           62           53                           LA           88                           CBJ         0.443

15           EDM      60           59                           EDM      82                           LA           0.403

The worst, for my money, aspect of the present Fractional Point System is that no two teams have seen the same point totals awarded in their games. The league average as of my writing is 2.195 Pts per game, However, Philly has seen 2.119 P/G while EDM has seen 2.30 P/G, a net variance of 8.26% hardly a negligible value. Teams playing PHI for instance will have below average pt totals, while in the NW the pt totals will be seriously wonky, It seem likely that the three NW teams that sit on the cusp are there because of this..

More pernicious is the effect these points have on Management and fans, especially of teams near the bottom, who may put off improvements in the delusion of making the playoffs, and at the top where a team may decide it is too good, and wind up underestimating a playoff opponent. I am sure we can all think of an example of each.

 Amusingly as well, if we define .500 as 50% of the points awarded in your games, then that number at any point of the season will be different for each team.

 And it still makes more sense than this drawn from my spreadsheet.:
 

Team

GP

W

L

Pts

OTW

OTL

PAWPG

NHL%

Opp%

50%

PHX	64	31	29	66	7	4	2.172	0.516	0.570	69.5
Team	GP	W	L	Pts	OTW	OTL	PAWPG	NHL%	Opp%	50%

 Note that we have the absurdity of both PHX and their opponents being above .500 by NHL reckoning. The last column represents the Point total PHX needs to have 50% of the points awarded in their games. 

 I hope I haven’t bored anyone to death, this is a subject that has bothered me for a while, because I believe that a better , more easily understood standings and stats system will make the game more accessible to new fans, help old fans to a better understanding, and prevent the league from perpetrating any more frauds  on a rightly suspicious fandom. Failing all else, the existing system seems to have been built to confuse, to generate false hope in some places, it combines I believe the worst aspect of every other system.