NFL Playoffs 2012: Lombardi Trophy Long Shot for Denver Broncos
Eight teams are still very much on their respective quests to reach and win the Super Bowl this year, but only one will do so.
Each team has clearly earned their right to hit the field in the postseason, but that doesn't mean there aren't favorites to win it all.
And when there are favorites, that means there are also long shots. One team, the Denver Broncos, seems the least likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy when all is said and done.
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At 8-8, the Broncos backed their way into the playoffs, losing their last three consecutive regular season games.
Though the team beat the venerable Pittsburgh Steelers—last year's AFC champions—in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, that win had as much to do with quarterback Tim Tebow's arm as it did the ways in which the Steelers defense chose to respond to it.
Now that their future opponents, the New England Patriots, have enough information about Tebow to react to him in a number of ways, it's going to be harder for Tebow to repeat that Wild Card Game success for two consecutive weeks, win the conference and head to the Super Bowl.
The Steelers didn't believe Tebow could connect on deep passes, and they were somewhat right. Though he passed for 316 yards, he still only completed 10 of his 21 passing attempts.
Pittsburgh was successful at stopping the Broncos running game, however, and once an opposing defense can find a proper balance of defending deep while keeping an eye on any run plays that may develop, Tebow's ability to complete the deep ball will decrease.
But it's not just defenses that will pose a problem to Denver's Super Bowl chances. There's also the matter of the offenses that the Broncos defense will have to stop.
First up is the Patriots' offense, led by quarterback Tom Brady, wide receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Though the Patriots gave up chunks of yardage and 16 points in the first half of the teams' first meeting in week 15, even Tebow and company couldn't adequately exploit New England's league-worst secondary, scoring just one more touchdown in the course of the game.
During that same period, the Patriots scored four touchdowns and three field goals, creating such a massive lead that the Broncos couldn't possibly keep up.
That's the kind of situation the Broncos are likely to find themselves in Saturday night. Should they pull out the unlikely win, however, things won't get any easier in the AFC championship game.
Should the Broncos face the Baltimore Ravens for the AFC title, they're in serious trouble.
Although the Ravens offense isn't as high-scoring as the Patriots', their defense is tops in the league, and will be keyed in on Tebow in ways the injury-plagued Steelers squad was unable to be.
Few teams can beat the Ravens' defense deep, and none have done so in a game at Baltimore.
There's defense, and then there's Ravens defense.
Although Tebow has shown he can hold his own despite pressure, and can evade a sack like few other quarterbacks, the Ravens' defense—especially when it's in playoff form—can be suffocating.
But should the seemingly impossible come to pass, then the Broncos are going to be major underdogs in this year's Super Bowl.
They would likely face the New Orleans Saints or the Green Bay Packers—the top two offenses is in the league.
The Packers have found their success primarily in the air; quarterback Aaron Rodgers has some of the most high-caliber receiving weapons in the league.
The Saints are more balanced, boasting both the best passing offense and a top 10 run offense this season.
But neither team has seriously struggled of late; the Saints particularly are on fire.
While Tebow has proven he can make big completions and score points, he still can't lead an offense to a winning effort against teams as strong as Green Bay or New Orleans, no matter how vulnerable both teams are in the secondary.
If Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford cannot put up enough points to defeat the Saints, despite completing 65 percent of his passes, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns, then Tebow has no chance to best either New Orleans or Green Bay in the Super Bowl.
While it's quite a feat to be one of the 12 teams to reach the NFL playoffs, the Broncos just don't have enough components in place to make a convincing argument as to why they'd be able to run the table and win the Super Bowl this season.
They're just too outmatched by some of the league's more elite teams. Though they managed to beat one of them in the Wild Card Round, the Broncos won't be so fortunate as the playoffs continue.

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