Notre Dame vs. Penn State: Odds, Box Score Prediction for Orange Bowl 2024

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions are expected to play the closer of the two College Football Playoff semifinals.

Notre Dame is a slight 1.5-point favorite for Thursday's Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium.

The point spread is tight because Notre Dame and Penn State advanced to the semifinals in similar ways.

Both programs produced a pair of double-digit wins in the first round and quarterfinals. They both used strong rushing attacks and dominant defenses to open up the leads in those games.

The play of the two defenses makes it easy to believe it will be a low-scoring game, and in fact, the over/under for the Orange Bowl is nine points lower than the total set for the Cotton Bowl.

Orange Bowl Odds

Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 02: Quarterback Riley Leonard #13 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish throws a pass during the Notre Dame Fighting Irish versus the Georgia Bulldogs College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Notre Dame (-1.5)

Over/Under: 44.5

Money Line: Notre Dame (-118; bet $118 to win $100); Penn State (-102; bet $102 to win $100)

Defenses Powering Both Notre Dame, Penn State

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

STATE COLLEGE, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 21: Abdul Carter #11 of the Penn State Nittany Lions looks on during the first quarter against the Southern Methodist Mustangs in the Playoff First Round Game at Beaver Stadium on December 21, 2024 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have played incredible defense for most of the season.

That was on display in the first round and quarterfinals, as each unit held its two opponents under 20 points.

Penn State passed the biggest test put in front of either team, as it slowed down Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Heisman Trophy runner-up was held to 3.5 yards per carry on 30 touches. He had a 104-yard performance, but he did not break a run longer than 26 yards.

Notre Dame held Indiana and Georgia to a combined 125 rushing yards and it did not allow a single receiver to eclipse the 70-yard mark.

The immediate reaction to all of those statistics would be to be the under 44.5. There may not be many possessions that turn into points, but if touchdowns are scored, they may have to be earned through the air.

Quarterback Play Will Be Key to Victory

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - JANUARY 02: Riley Leonard #13 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish throws the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs during the 91st Allstate Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome on January 02, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

Riley Leonard and Drew Allar should be the X-factors for their respective teams on Thursday.

If both defenses continue to slow down opposing rushing attacks, the pair of quarterbacks will be required to make a handful of big plays.

Allar has won more games through the air this season. He has 800 more passing yards and six more touchdown passes compared to Leonard.

However, Leonard has done more work on the ground with 831 rushing yards. Allar has 285 rushing yards this season.

Leonard's elusiveness could help him escape the pocket more if he faces a strong pass rush from Penn State's front seven.

Allar is mobile, but he has not been as active with his legs compared to Leonard, and if Notre Dame's pass rush gets home, he will have to use his legs to keep plays alive, or make plays on his own.

Allar has the top pass-catching target on either roster in tight end Tyler Warren, who has 700 more receiving yards than Notre Dame's top pass-catcher.

Notre Dame has four players with between 300-475 receiving yards. Penn State has two other players with more than 400 receiving yards in addition to Warren.

Final Score Prediction

Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 31: Penn State Nittany Lions running back Kaytron Allen (13) runs with the football and battles with Boise State Broncos cornerback Markel Reed (8) in action during the 2024 Vrbo Fiesta Bowl between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Boise State Broncos at State Farm Stadium on December 31, 2024 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images)

Penn State 24, Notre Dame 17

Penn State's comfortability in the passing game could be the ultimate difference-maker.

The Nittany Lions complement their rushing attack through the air much better than Notre Dame, and if the running backs on both sides are slowed down, the Big Ten side holds the advantage.

Leonard should make a handful of plays to extend drives for Notre Dame, but the Irish do not have the aerial capabilities that the Nittany Lions do.

Warren could end up as the most important player in the contest, especially if Allar is forced to make throws 10-15 yards from the line of scrimmage.

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