Assessing Super Bowl Windows for Every 2024 NFL Contender
Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season is now underway, and 19 teams still remain in contention for 14 playoff spots.
Technically, there are Super Bowl windows for each.
Taking a step back, let's assess those broad windows for all 19 of 'em, quick hit-style.
AFC East
1 of 8
Buffalo Bills: 4-8 more years — For a team that has been highly competitive this entire decade, the window is open so long as quarterback Josh Allen is elite. There's no reason the 28-year-old can't keep rolling into his mid-30s, at a minimum. He's under contract four more years, so let's set that as the floor.
Prediction: 8 years
Miami Dolphins: 2-4 more years — There's plenty of evidence the Dolphins can't rely on Tua Tagovailoa to the same degree as a lot of other teams with franchise quarterbacks. He's under contract through 2028 as well, but that's probably the ceiling considering how much they have committed to aging key cogs like Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead and Jalen Ramsey.
Prediction: 2 years
AFC North
2 of 8
Baltimore Ravens: 3-6 more years — Lamar Jackson is just as dominant and a year younger than Allen, and he's under contract through 2027. Let's use that as the floor but bring the ceiling down a tad to account for Jackson's vulnerability as a mobile quarterback with plenty of injuries under his belt.
Prediction: 6 years
Cincinnati Bengals: 4-6 more years — Some changes are clearly needed to truly open the window wide enough to contend annually, but the main ingredients are there and they're young (Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are 28 and 24, respectively) and under contract for a while (Burrow and Logan Wilson through 2029 and 2027, respectively).
Prediction: 5 years
Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-2 more years — Even if Russell Wilson sticks around, he'll turn 37 next season and isn't the player he used to be. Plus, most of their key cogs on defense are in their 30s.
Prediction: 0 years
AFC South
3 of 8
Houston Texans: 1-12 more years — This has to be a wide range because they've come back to earth after C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans stormed the league as rookies. This whole thing could blow up within a year if those guys don't get it right between now and the end of 2025, or the 23-year-old Stroud could help them contend annually for another decade or longer.
Prediction: 10 years
Indianapolis Colts: 0-12 more years — This window isn't open yet. If Anthony Richardson and a young core can break out in 2025, it will open but only in the same fashion as Houston's current window due to the risk of a one-year window.
Prediction: 0 years
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AFC West
4 of 8
Denver Broncos: 1-12 more years — Bo Nix looks to be the real deal and should have at least a decade in him as he is still 24. That said, we have to stick with the same floor as Houston using the logic from that breakdown, even if Sean Payton is more accomplished than Ryans on the sideline.
Prediction: 10 years
Kansas City Chiefs: 2-6 more years — Patrick Mahomes' play has quite simply dropped off the last couple years, as has is support. He's 29 and may have peaked. Could Andy Reid retire soon? He turns 67 this offseason. I could see this blowing up in as few as two years, but you have to keep the ceiling relatively high for Mahomes and Reid.
Prediction: 4 years
Los Angeles Chargers: 5-10 more years — Still some work to do, but Justin Herbert is having the best year of his career in Jim Harbaugh's maiden season as head coach. They're also young and have plenty of projected salary-cap space in coming seasons. I'm bullish, especially with the 26-year-old Herbert under contract through '29.
Prediction: 9 years
NFC East
5 of 8
Philadelphia Eagles: 4-10 more years — They've been a prime contender two of the last three years with quarterback Jalen Hurts, who is 26 and under contract through 2028. The rest of the core is also young and most are locked up for a while. Even if Saquon Barkley hits a wall soon-ish, they'll be a contender for years to come.
Prediction: 9 years
Washington Commanders: 1-12 more years — Very similar situation to that of Bo Nix and the Broncos, as Jayden Daniels can go either way but is off to a good start with growing support. The Commanders will have plenty of money to spend in the coming years.
Prediction: 8 years
NFC North
6 of 8
Detroit Lions: 4-6 more years — Regardless of overall talent and roster age, you have to start with the quarterback in this era. If we're conservatively capping QBs in their mid-30s, six years seems like an appropriate ceiling for the 30-year-old Jared Goff. This team is too stacked not to contend for much of that period, especially with Goff under contract through 2028.
Prediction: 6 years
Green Bay Packers: 3-10 more years — Jordan Love is 26 but somewhat injury-prone and up-and-down, but they've got plenty of young talent and are in decent cap shape for the coming years. The floor is high, but so is the range.
Prediction: 5 years
Minnesota Vikings: 0-12 more years — So much up in the air here, as Sam Darnold could be a one-year wonder and his contract expires this upcoming offseason. Additionally, we've never seen J.J. McCarthy in regular-season action, but obviously the first-round rookie could become something special with Justin Jefferson and Co. I think the odds are out of their favor, and they could come back to earth in 2025 regardless of who's at quarterback.
Prediction: 0 years
NFC South
7 of 8
Atlanta Falcons: 0-12 more years — Same rule as with other teams on here with young, unproven quarterbacks. If not for Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons would just be a zero. They ain't going anywhere with Kirk Cousins, but at least they have a talented 24-year-old first-round pick on the roster. Still, based on the success of the rest of the quarterback class and the overall crapshoot aspect of the draft's first round, I'm not getting my hopes up.
Prediction: 0 years
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-3 more years — The Bucs are and continue to be a fringe contender at best, and I think they'll always have a ceiling in that range with the flawed Baker Mayfield at quarterback. The core is also aging beyond that, so they're closer to a rebuild than having a championship window.
Prediction: 0 years
NFC West
8 of 8
Los Angeles Rams: 0 more years — The window has closed on a Rams team winning a soft division with a negative scoring margin. Matthew Stafford is about to turn 37 and the roster is in the midst of at least a reload. The question now is when the window will open again.
Prediction: 0 years
Seattle Seahawks: 0 more years — Same as above. Geno Smith has obvious limitations for a team that isn't a true contender this year and isn't currently positioned to be in better shape next year. They'll have to find a better long-term option than the 34-year-old, and they have very little cap flexibility in the coming offseason.
Prediction: 0 years
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