B/R Staff: 2025 NBA Awards Predictions Through Christmas
It's Christmas Eve. There's still over a month until the trade deadline and a couple more months until in-season awards are announced. But it's never too early to start discussing MVP, Rookie of the Year and the rest of the individual honors.
Just prowl around Bleacher Report or head over to X, Instagram or whatever your preferred spot is for online NBA discussion. The awards takes are already flying.
So, that's exactly what we're going to dispense here. BR's NBA staff has predictions for MVP and every other end-of-year award below.
MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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Denying Nikola Jokić MVP honors on the basis of team performance rings more hollow than ever.
The Denver Nuggets have gradually, if unconvincingly, crept closer to a top-four spot in the Western Conference. And all the while, Jokić ranks in the top three of points (30.9), rebounds (13.0) and assists (9.8) assists per game on preposterous efficiency—especially behind the arc, where he's downing over 50 percent of his attempts.
Beyond that, the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions with him in the game. That is better than Dallas with Luka Dončić (plus-11.0), Milwaukee with Giannis Antetokounmpo (0.0), and New York with Jalen Brunson (plus-9.4). And it is closer to Boston's Jayson Tatum minutes (plus-12.4) than it has any business being.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's floor time in Oklahoma City is noticeably better (plus-14.8), but he's working with a much deeper roster and better situation—even without Chet Holmgren.
Denver's performance without Jokić has steadied in recent games. Still, no other superstar is carrying a more questionable supporting cast to heights of near-title contention.
—Dan Favale
Rookie of the Year: Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
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Just when it seemed like Jared McCain was running away with this award, a torn meniscus yanked him out of the race and created confusion at the top. There isn't an obvious choice without him, as the likes of Stephon Castle, Yves Missi, Jaylen Wells and Dalton Knecht all have arguments to make.
In the end, though, it still appears Zach Edey's argument will be the strongest—provided he stays healthy.
The No. 9 overall pick is logging major minutes for one of this season's best teams and making his presence felt during that floor time. The Grizzlies have fared a healthy 2.5 points better per 100 possessions with him than without.
He hasn't been overwhelmingly dominant, but in this rookie class, he doesn't need to. His 11 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game don't jump off the page, but they do make him a top-five freshman performer in every category. That's an impressive feat considering he's only 11th in the class in average minutes.
Unless his floor time takes off, Edey may never pull way ahead of the pack, but it's hard to find the freshman capable of getting in front of him. Castle just lost his starting gig, Missi's team is significantly worse, and Knecht's chances have come way down lately.
The Purdue product could see his toughest competition from Wells, his teammate, but Edey will fill up more stat lines and already has the far superior net differential.
—Zach Buckley
Coach of the Year: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies
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I went a little outside the box on our preseason predictions by making Taylor Jenkins my pick for Coach of the Year, and the early returns basically mandate a double-down on that bet.
Despite projected starters Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and Zach Edey all missing at least 10 games so far, the Memphis Grizzlies are the only team to rank among the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. With the second-best point differential in the West, they are a great bet to snatch a top-four playoff seed.
Credit the long list of surprising/overachieving players such as Scotty Pippen Jr., Santi Aldama, Jake LaRavia, rookie standout Jaylen Wells, Jay Huff and the resurgent Brandon Clarke first, but don't discount Jenkins' role in getting the absolute most out of whoever happens to be in the rotation on a given night.
Memphis is organized on both ends, plays extremely hard and is getting contributions from unlikely sources—all with a revamped coaching staff that only retained two assistants from last year.
—Grant Hughes
Most Improved Player: Jalen Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
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There's a new favorite for the Most Improved Player award on FanDuel: Tyler Herro. He has taken over from Jalen Williams, the favorite to start the year. That being said, my pick for the award through Christmas is Jalen Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks.
If he did not get hurt, Johnson would have been a contender for the award last season. He only played 57 games and kicked up his scoring from 5.6 points in 2022-23 to 16 points last season to 19.5 points this year.
His impact on the court goes beyond scoring, though, and he's averaging 10.1 rebounds and 5.5 assists this season.
Looking at advanced on/off numbers, Atlanta barely has a positive net rating of 0.4 with him on the floor, but it gets difficult for the team when it takes him off the court because its net rating drops off a cliff to -12.0.
Herro has been great for the Heat in the first quarter of the season, but there is no drop-off in the team's net rating with him on or off the court. He is averaging career highs in assists and shooting his best three-point percentage ever, but the improvements are marginal.
Williams has been good this season, but his three-point percentage has dropped four points from last year. He has kicked up his rebounding and assists numbers, but they aren't big jumps.
On FanDuel, Johnson has the second-highest odds to win the Most Improved Player award, tied with Williams at +370. His improvement has impacted winning and put the Hawks in a position to finish in the top six in the East. He gets my vote through Christmas.
—Mo Dakhil
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
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Picking Victor Wembanyama to win Defensive Player of the Year before the season certainly wasn't a bold choice, but it remains the correct one.
It's safe to say the 20-year-old center has somehow been even better than expected. He again leads the NBA in blocks (3.8 per game) and has held opponents to a measly 46.5 percent shooting at the rim. And the San Antonio Spurs give up 10.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, a mark that ranks in the 95th percentile via Cleaning the Glass.
His 7'4" height and eight-foot wingspan, combined with his surprising fluidity for someone his size, give the Frenchman the biggest defensive range of any player in the NBA. This kind of size and athleticism not only erases shots, but it also alters others and flat-out discourages potential shooters if he is anywhere near.
With good health, Wembanyama is going to become the youngest Defensive Player of the Year in NBA history and is already one of the best defenders we've ever seen.
—Greg Swartz
Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard
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At this point, it's hard to imagine anyone other than Payton Pritchard snagging Sixth Man of the Year.
He's 15th (in the entire NBA) in single-season estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices). He's fifth on the juggernaut Boston Celtics in scoring and is averaging 16.0 points, 3.8 threes and 3.2 assists per game in just 28.8 minutes. He's shooting 43.1 percent from deep. And when he's on the floor, Boston has a point differential around that of a 63-win team.
The Celtics didn't even need Pritchard to be this good to look like contenders to repeat. But having one of the most dynamic, high-volume floor spacers off the bench has made them feel inevitable at times.
On a team with tons of playmaking all over the rest of the roster, the point guard-sized Pritchard has been able to focus on just pouring in buckets. And no other reserve is doing it as prolifically.
—Andy Bailey
Executive of the Year: Sam Presti
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Several teams deserve recognition for impressive front-office work, but Sam Presti of the Oklahoma City Thunder stands atop the Executive of the Year list.
The Thunder were already the best overall team last year in the Western Conference, but the general manager didn't stay complacent. Armed with more draft capital than any other exec, he brought in vital veteran pieces such as Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein without giving up first-round picks.
Caruso, who was recently given a contract extension, came via trade with the Chicago Bulls for Josh Giddey (who didn't fit the Thunder's evolving play style). Hartenstein was poached from the New York Knicks as an unrestricted free agent. The added depth, in areas that complement the team's best scorers (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams), has helped Oklahoma City thrive despite losing Chet Holmgren (hip) for an extended period.
Presti also re-signed Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe to team-friendly contracts. The Thunder stay low on drama, win games with a young but near-championship-level squad and arguably have the best front office in the league.
If Oklahoma City can land a championship, Presti may go down as Executive of the Decade.
—Eric Pincus
Clutch Player: Nikola Jokić
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The Denver Nuggets have probably been in clutch situations a lot more often than they'd like (or expected, coming into this season). But when Nikola Jokić is on the floor, there's a pretty good chance they're going to win them.
Denver has a whopping plus-18.6 net rating in his clutch minutes. In that setting, he's putting up 34.2 points, 13.8 rebounds and 6.1 assists per 75 possessions.
The Serb is a cheat code, particularly in the highest-leverage moments of a game. The Nuggets can just dump into him inside, where he'll typically score on whoever's guarding him. And when teams send double- and triple-teams, he almost always makes the right decision.
The front office and coaching staff would surely appreciate more blowout wins, but if Denver keeps ending up in close games, Jokić could run away with this honor.
—Andy Bailey
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