The 7 Biggest Overpays of 2024 MLB Free Agency
There's sticker shock from the record-smashing 15-year, $765 million contract that Juan Soto signed to join the New York Mets. But given that Soto has one of the greatest offensive approaches the game has ever seen and is still only 26, there's a real argument to be made that the deal will age relatively well.
When Bryce Harper signed a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies prior to the 2019 season, it seemed like an astronomical amount. Almost seven years later, it looks downright team-friendly.
So count us out on those who consider Soto's contract to be ridiculous. In fact, by the time that Soto can opt out after the 2029 season, the guess here is it will be a fairly easy decision for the Mets to void his opt-out by increasing the annual value on the remaining 10 years of the deal from $51 million to $55 million.
However, there have been some contracts signed so far this offseason that look like overpays. Here's a look at seven of them.
Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees
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Contract: Eight years, $218 million with New York Yankees
Max Fried is an excellent pitcher who has two top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting and two All-Star Game appearances. He will undoubtedly help the Yankees in 2025.
The critique here is more with the length of the contract than anything. It's been a trend in recent years for teams to stretch out the length of a pact by a few years to lower the average annual value, which is what counts against the luxury-tax threshold. Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Brandon Nimmo all likely had multiple years tacked onto the end of their contracts so they could get the round number they were looking for, while the team lowers the annual hit.
Still, though, the bill will come due at some point. Fried—who the Yankees gave a full no-trade clause—will make $31.5 million per year from 2030 to 2032, his age-36 through 38 seasons.
At the outset of the offseason, B/R projected a six-year, $168 million contract for Fried in free agency. That would have come with an average annual value of $28 million. The deal Fried ultimately signed has him with an AAV of $27.25 million. So the Yankees didn't lower the AAV in a significant way from what our projection was and still added two extra years.
Since undergoing Tommy John surgery as a prospect in 2014, Fried has avoided major injuries. But he hasn't been an iron man, either. When you give someone an eight-year deal—in addition to surrendering draft capital because the Atlanta Braves had saddled him with a qualifying offer—you would expect a pitcher with a bit less injury risk than Fried carries.
He may very well help the Yankees win a World Series during the peaks of Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole. Adding him isn't the issue. However, there are enough factors that make this feel like an overpay.
Tyler O'Neill, OF, Baltimore Orioles
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Contract: Three years, $49.5 million with player opt-out available after 2025 with Baltimore Orioles
There's a chance this deal becomes a bargain, because a healthy Tyler O'Neill is worth way more than $16.5 million per season.
The problem is, O'Neill is coming off a campaign in which three separate injuries—concussion, right knee inflammation and left leg infection—limited him to 113 games. And that was the most he's played since 2021.
O'Neill is a two-time Gold Glove winner and hit 31 home runs in 113 games last year, a staggering ratio. He will no longer have the advantage of playing his home games at Fenway Park, but he's an excellent offensive player when he's on the field.
Still, it feels like this deal will go one of two ways.
If O'Neill is healthy this year, he'll probably put up a big season and opt out. That's really not a bad scenario, because it will likely mean the Orioles got All-Star level production from the 29-year-old, who could help them to compete for a World Series in 2025.
But if he struggles to stay on the field, he won't opt out, and the Orioles will be on the hook for the remaining two years. $16.5 million per season isn't a crippling amount, even for a team like the Orioles, who aren't traditionally major spenders. But it's also not an insignificant amount to dedicate to someone who history tells us won't be regularly available.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP Texas Rangers
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Contract: Three years, $75 million with Texas Rangers
It feels like this one got overlooked, because Nathan Eovaldi has a great reputation around the league and has proved capable of pitching at a high level—both as a starter and reliever—in October.
But this is someone with a lengthy injury history who will be 35 in the first season of this three-year pact. Especially given the Rangers are already on the hook for three more seasons with Jacob deGrom—a great pitcher who struggles to stay on the mound and is 36—it's a bit surprising they were willing to make this commitment to Eovaldi.
Compared to Fried—whom the Rangers apparently tried to sign—this isn't a major commitment. But knowing his injury history and that B/R projected a two-year, $39 million deal coming into the offseason, Eovaldi made out quite well.
Michael Conforto, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Contract: One year, $17 million with Los Angeles Dodgers
Michael Conforto made $18 million with the San Francisco Giants in 2024, so he'll actually be taking a slight pay cut in 2025. But Conforto missed all of the 2022 season with an injury and then posted a .740 OPS across two year with the Giants. We would have expected a more significant pay cut.
That's not to say this deal won't work out well.
First of all, money never seems to be an issue for the Dodgers, and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times did report that the pact includes an undisclosed amount of deferrals. So the entire bill will not be due in 2025.
Secondly, Conforto hit just .216 with three home runs, 15 RBI and a .632 OPS in 209 plate appearances at Oracle Park last year. However, on the road, he hit .253 with 17 home runs, 51 RBI and an .852 OPS in 279 plate appearances. That leads you to believe he should thrive now that he's no longer playing his home games at Oracle.
Still, Conforto is entering his age-32 season and hasn't achieved the star potential he flashed early in his career with the New York Mets. For him to get $17 million, even with deferrals, suggests the Dodgers had some competition offering a similar amount, which is surprising.
Luis Severino, SP, Athletics
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Contract: Three years, $67 million with player opt-out available after 2026 with Athletics
Luis Severino had a tremendous rebound season with the Mets, posting a 3.91 ERA across 182 innings and helping New York to make a surprising run to the NLCS.
Still, from 2019 to 2023, Severino posted a 4.47 ERA across just 209.1 innings pitched, with Tommy John surgery in February of 2020 throwing a wrench into his tenure with the Yankees.
So for Severino, getting a three-year, $67 million deal—that includes the chance to opt out after the second season—might make him the biggest winner of the offseason. Entering his age-31 season, there are no guarantees about his health, and the Athletics had to surrender draft compensation to sign him because the Mets extended him a qualifying offer.
Of course, there's a reason the A's had to pay a premium. Surely, there was some hazard pay included to get Severino to agree to spend at least two seasons playing at a Triple-A ballpark in Sacramento, the probably temporary home of the franchise. Also, as Clay Snowden of Just Baseball outlined, the A's "have to spend more than 150 percent of their revenue sharing money (roughly $70 million) on their payroll" to avoid the MLBPA filing a grievance.
With that context, it becomes clearer why the A's overpaid Severino. But make no mistake, there wasn't going to be another team that touched a deal in this range, as B/R projected Severino to get a two-year, $38.5 million deal.
Frankie Montas, SP, New York Mets
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Contract: Two years, $34 million with New York Mets
Frankie Montas has had some really nice stretches in his career, particularly during the parts of six seasons he spent with the A's. And considering how well the Mets made out on the signings of Sean Manaea and the aforementioned Severino to rebound deals last year, president of baseball operations David Stearns has probably earned the benefit of the doubt.
With that said, Montas is coming off a season in which he posted a 4.84 ERA and 4.71 FIP in a campaign he split between the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers. His ERA+ of 89 was well below the league average of 100. He was a bit better after being acquired by the Brewers, but still nothing particularly special. And as fans of the other New York team can attest to, he's had some issues staying healthy in his career.
It's certainly not inconceivable that Montas will bounce back, and if he pitches anything like the guy who finished sixth in AL Cy Young Award voting as a member of the A's in 2021, the Mets will be elated to have him on a multi-year deal. They probably wish they gave Severino two years last offseason.
But the reason Severino didn't get two years was because of the injury risk he carried. Montas carries maybe less injury risk, but he still has some, and you also don't know how well he's going to pitch when healthy. It was surprising to see him get multiple years at a fairly significant price. The Mets are rolling the dice with a lot of the arms in their rotation.
Alex Cobb, SP, Detroit Tigers
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Contract: One year, $15 million with Detroit Tigers
Alex Cobb made three regular-season starts this past year for the Cleveland Guardians after missing the bulk of the campaign on the injured list for the Giants as he recovered from both left hip surgery and inflammation in his right shoulder.
Evidently, the Tigers loved what they saw in Cobb's short stint with the division-rival Guardians, even though manager Stephen Vogt allowed him to go just 5.2 innings total across his two postseason appearances.
Cobb was an All-Star as recently as 2023, as he posted a 3.87 ERA in 28 starts for the Giants. But he's 37 years old and has a pretty lengthy injury history. It feels like there's a chance this ends up being a sunk cost because Cobb just isn't able to stay on the mound.
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