B/R Betting Locks: College Football Playoff 1st-Round Games
In any other year, this week would be reserved for breaking down bowl games with sponsors you have never heard of, diving deep into opt-outs and transfers, and leaning into the oddness that surrounds college football's wind down.
But not this week, and not this piece.
To be clear, we celebrate football in all shapes and forms. We embrace all bowl games, regardless of sponsor or roster, and we will continue to do so.
First, however, we have business to take care of.
The College Football Playoff has arrived, and the 12-team bracket will begin this week. As an added bonus, let's also begin with an important reminder. All games will be played on college campuses, and most of them are likely to feature frigid temperatures.
We'll get there. Have no fear.
Locks of the Week will be with you each step of the way this postseason and bowl season, and our next stop is the first round of this luxurious new bracket.
Let's not waste any additional time. Here are our picks for the first round of the postseason.
Indiana (+7.5) at Notre Dame
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If we're being honest, many weeks later, the evaluation of both teams remains a bit of a mystery.
Now, let's give credit where it's due. Both Indiana and Notre Dame have performed incredibly well. These are teams powered by solid defense and capable quarterbacks, and the end result is this matchup in the first round.
They deserve this, and the winner of this game will be a threat moving forward. (We think.)
The reason the evaluation is difficult, however, is pretty simple. Neither team faced a robust schedule to reach here. This is not meant as a knock; it's simply a reality. It also makes this specific pick a difficult one to make. These teams, while very different in terms of historical success, also feel like they're wired similarly this year.
So, let's take the points.
Indiana will have to deal with a home Notre Dame crowd, although both travel and frigid temps should be minimized here given the schools' vicinity to one another. The Hoosiers also have a defense—especially up front—that could throw this Notre Dame offense out of rhythm.
If that is the case, Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke should be capable of doing enough. The Notre Dame defense, which has been superb, will probably limit big plays. But if Indiana can chew up time and deliver a few long drives, it should keep it within the spread.
The Hoosiers are no fluke. Far from it, in fact.
Indiana is capable of keeping its dream season alive another round. We'll take the points and see what happens next.
Penn State (-8.5) vs. SMU
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When future odds are released for 2025, Penn State is likely to be one of the favorites to win next year's national championship. The announcement that Drew Allar will return to school provides plenty of future hope, and the oddsmakers will react accordingly.
In the present, it doesn't do much. Although his presence for this matchup is obviously enormous, especially given the rapid improvement we witnessed from the quarterback this year.
The last time we saw Allar and Penn State play, we saw plenty of good and some bad. In terms of good, the offense was rolling against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. The team totaled more than 500 total yards, showing remarkable balance.
The problem? The Nittany Lions allowed 45 points, and Oregon wideouts were running wild all night long.
SMU has pieces to move the ball against this team, especially through the air. The Mustangs also have a strong rush defense, which heads into the playoff No. 4 nationally.
Yet, the difference in talent outside of quarterback seems somewhat robust. SMU certainly has a roster deserving of this spotlight, although the likes of Tyler Warren, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen seem positioned to thrive.
Granted, James Franklin hasn't exactly thrived in big games. That is the narrative heading into this matchup, and there's some truth encased in this discussion. Having competed with some elite teams this year, however, Penn State is positioned to beat a very good team in SMU.
And in terms of home field, one could argue no CFB environment this weekend will be more beneficial. With a low of 12 degrees expected, the team from Texas could be in for one.
Clemson (+12) vs. Texas
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Not terribly long ago, Dabo Swinney was the architect of one of the sport's most dominant teams and programs.
The sport has changed a lot since then, and Clemson has changed plenty, too. While the Tigers haven't been removed from the national spotlight, results have been mixed the last few years.
Yet, here we are.
No team in this expanded format should feel less pressure than this one. A win over SMU in the ACC Championship Game allowed this opportunity, and Swinney seems like the perfect personality to maximize this chance.
Texas certainly has a better overall roster, although the Tigers aren't exactly slouches. The defense is filled with future NFL players, and the roster found life for the first time in years in 2024.
This team has balance, and that balance bodes well against a program like Texas.
Indeed, the Longhorns have plenty of balance to counter. But for all the good things we've said about this team and program, the final stretch of the season wasn't exactly dominant. Texas scored more than 31 points only once during the team's final seven games.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers has battled injuries, and backup Arch Manning is likely to see reps. The Texas defense has certainly done its part, although the perception of this team and the reality of its performances, outside an excellent performance at Texas A&M, haven't always aligned.
With that in mind, we're not overthinking this. Clemson is the right team at the right time to make this game closer than it needs to be. Although the Longhorns ultimately win at home, the Tigers keep it within the number.
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Ohio State vs. Tennessee (Under 46.5)
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The last time we saw Ohio State, pepper spray had been deployed as a post game fight had broken out.
Oh, and the Buckeyes lost outright to rival Michigan as nearly a three-touchdown favorite, prompting discussions about Ryan Day's future and the program's stagnant trajectory to reignite in earnest.
Despite the drama that has blanketed the Buckeyes, Ohio State still has a roster ripe with stars. It also has a game at home, which is enormous when you consider all the elements that come with that.
While there are future NFL players across both offenses—especially for the home team—the other side of the ball is where this conversation should begin. Ohio State finished with the nation's No. 1 scoring defense this year; Tennessee checked in at No. 4.
Those numbers speak volumes, and the pressure moves quickly to the quarterbacks. Both Will Howard and Nico Iamaleava have looked like stars through stretches. Both have also struggled in certain moments.
Iamaleava and Tennessee lost two of its final three road games, which is something to monitor. As is the temperature, which is likely to dip below 20 degrees. (We know we're leaning into the weather a lot this week, although it feels like a big deal in most games.)
Ohio State has issues across its offensive line, thanks in large part to injuries. Tennessee's defense, especially up front, has been a force.
Throw in all of these ingredients, and this feels like an exceptional, ugly football game. Both teams will want to control the ball and kill clock, and I don't expect an avalanche of points as a result.
Ohio State 20, Tennessee 17.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
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