Bold Predictions for 2024-25 NBA Trade Season
The NBA trade market could be on the cusp of a full-fledged eruption.
Maybe things don't really get moving until closer to the Feb. 6 trade deadline, but meaningful conversations can—and almost certainly will—start taking place.
Clubs have cleared the first-quarter mark of this campaign, meaning they should have a reasonably good idea of what they will or won't be possible this season. And with the always important Dec. 15 date now in the rearview, the majority of players signed in free agency this summer are now trade-eligible.
Before actual trades start to take shape, we're breaking out the crystal ball and cranking up the boldness setting to predict what could (and hopefully will) be awaiting the basketball world during this round of trade season.
Hawks Are Buyers
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Before this season even started, it felt like the end of the road for this iteration of the Hawks. At the very least, they seemed likely to move out their remaining high-dollar vets and start shaping things around the young quartet of Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu and top pick Zaccharie Risacher—with or without Trae Young.
Maybe things will still play out that way, as ESPN's Tim Bontemps reported Atlanta "will listen" should teams "being calling about their veterans." With the Hawks showing perhaps more fight than expected, though, maybe this roster has a longer leash than anticipated. Maybe there's even some incentive for the front office to make some win-now moves with eyes on snagging one of the East's top-six seeds.
If nothing else, it feels like Young is extending his stay with the only NBA franchise he's known. He has never been more productive as a passer, and as ESPN's Brian Windhorst relayed in the same piece, he is "becoming better" with his "leadership and relationship-building skills."
If the Hawks now plan on keeping Young, then they could go search for ways to bring him more support. Instead of outright dumping the likes of Clint Capela and Larry Nance Jr., maybe they use those salaries and some non-premium trade assets (i.e., not their own future firsts) to bring in some support stoppers, shooters and secondary shot-creators.
They probably haven't shown enough to justify big-game hunting, but targeted trades for reasonably priced role players could be in the works, particularly if the front office feels this group has a legitimate chance of avoiding the play-in tournament.
Bulls Trade a Top-2 Scorer to Warriors or Lakers
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Zach LaVine looks healthier than he was at any point last season and as efficient as ever. Nikola Vučević has his three-ball back along with one of the best points-rebounds-assists combinations you'll find from a non-star center.
So far, none of that has mattered as far as the trade market is concerned. Vučević isn't expected to generate "much interest" on the market, per ESPN's Tim Bontemps, while "there still hasn't been any movement on a deal" for LaVine, per ESPN's Brian Windhorst.
Should the pair continue to produce at high rates for the next couple months, though, things could change. Desperation may start to set in among win-now teams who are in need of a spark but perhaps don't have the assets needed to broker a blockbuster.
The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors are clear candidates to fit that desciption. Both follow the leads of 30-something stars. Both have obvious areas to address if they hope to cash in on whatever championship window they have left. And neither possesses the biggest trade budget, as each has a handful of unpaid draft debts.
It feels like either team could blink at any moment. They could both use more creation and scoring punch alongside their stars, and seeking that out from one of the Bulls' high-priced (and overpaid) scorers could mean scratching that itch without giving up a critical piece (Austin Reaves for L.A.; Jonathan Kuminga for Golden State).
Spurs Search for Wemby's Co-Star
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By signing Chris Paul and acquiring Harrison Barnes, the Spurs essentially set up their 2024-25 season as something of a test run to see how competitive they could be with an improved roster around Victor Wembanyama. Considering they're already competing for a play-in berth and haven't even touched their rich asset collection yet, expect them to start poking around for the next step.
Wembanyama might have significantly more help than he did as a rookie, but he still lacks a co-star or even a candidate to one day grow into that role. And since San Antonio's climb up the standings could keep it out of the running for next summer's top draft prospects, it feels increasingly likely the Spurs will have to look outside the organization to find the Robin for their budding Batman.
Our crystal ball can't say for certain if this search will actually yield such a player in the next two months, as it's unclear what caliber of player will be made available. Even if there are a few stars on the move (more on that later), they won't necessarily be the kind San Antonio needs. Between the Spurs' stockpile of trade chips and Wembanyama's age (20), the franchise can and should be selective with this process.
Still, his continuing growth will make this more of a talking point. If the Spurs can be legitimately competitive with this type of supporting cast around him, how much better could they be if he had a bona fide running mate? The possibilities feel endless.
It still feels more likely than not that they'll avoid any aggressive in-season additions, but maybe that changes if the right young star shakes loose. Could San Antonio put together a package that the Charlotte Hornets would consider for LaMelo Ball? Would the Spurs kick the tires on an appropriately priced deal for Zion Williamson? There could be some options.
Pelicans Shop Zion Williamson—But Find No Takers
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This was supposed to be a defining season for the New Orleans Pelicans. The one that proved once and for all just how good they could be with a healthy Zion Williamson leading the charge—and whether Brandon Ingram was the right player to have as second in command.
But the Big Easy was once again forced to listen to the most tragic broken record in all of basketball. The Pelicans' injury issues haven't merely continued—they've found a way to worsen. How can New Orleans even begin to form long-term projections around a pair of players who aren't actually playing?
Then again, maybe the Pelicans should be less concerned about the possibility of what could happen with a healthy Williamson and more focused on the reality of his ongoing injury issues. The top pick in 2019 is sitting on 190 career appearances with 105 games played since the start of the 2021-22 season. That feels like enough absences for the Pelicans to at least consider moving forward without him, but it's also enough to scare off would-be suitors or at least limit them to sending only the lowest of low-ball offers.
"I think [getting trade value for him] is going to be extremely difficult to do given his injury history, given the fact that he looked far less explosive than he had been in the past in the little big that he played this year," ESPN's Tim MacMahon said on the Hoop Collective podcast. "... And also given the fact that he is a perennial first-team all-IAS guy: It's Always Something. Always something with him. And very rarely is it involving anything to do with basketball."
Is there a chance Williamson uses the next two months to get back healthy and re-establish himself as an NBA elite? In theory, sure, but given that he's not healthy now and didn't look like himself when he did suit up, that's either incredibly optimistic or just not realistic. It wouldn't be shocking to see his name surface in trade talks, but it would be surprising if New Orleans uncovered interested trade partners willing to part with enough for the Pelicans to close the door on the Zion era.
Multiple All-Stars Are Moved
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To be perfectly honest, this might be wishful thinking. With 10 playoff or play-in spots up for grabs in each conference, there aren't as many obvious sellers as there used to be. Flattened lottery odds decreased incentives for teams to tank. And the league's latest collective bargaining agreement greatly restricted what the top-spending teams are allowed to do in trades.
In other words, there are real reasons to be skeptical of any needle-moving trades being made between now and February. As Tim Bontemps recently reported, "several sources told ESPN in recent weeks they aren't sure any players making more than the low $20 million range will be traded this season."
Our crystal ball is hopeful that won't be the case, though, and as trade-machine enthusiasts, we've got our fingers crossed, too. These might be more than blind hopes, too.
Just look at what we've seen already this season. There were Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumblings in October. November brought along Karl-Anthony Towns chatter. Cut to December, and we now have ESPN's Shams Charania reporting the Miami Heat "are open to listening to offers" for Jimmy Butler, plus Brian Windhorst saying the Golden State Warriors will "definitely monitor" LeBron James' status should he decide he wants out of L.A.
And that's without touching on former All-Stars known to be on the trade block, like Zach LaVine, Brandon Ingram and D'Angelo Russell. Or without speculating on stars who could reasonably surface there, like LaMelo Ball, Trae Young or, if things really get wild, even Kevin Durant.
There could be stars on the table, in other words, and there would surely be no shortage of suitors for the best ones. The prices could be steep, and the math to make the money work would be as tricky as ever, but there's a universe in which multiple stars are on the move this trade season, and hopefully we're living in it.
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