College Football Playoffs 2024-25: Week 15 Clinch and Bracket Elimination Scenarios
As conference championship week approaches, some teams have already solidified their probable places in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field. Others must win this weekend to push their way into the CFP and keep their hopes alive.
Both teams in the Big Ten Championship Game (Oregon and Penn State) are likely already locked into the CFP field. As should be both teams in the SEC Championship Game (Texas and Georgia). But the winners will get top-four seeds and first-round byes.
Schools such as Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee won't be playing in conference championship games, but those programs appear to be CFP-bound after the latest rankings were released Tuesday night.
Which conference title games will impact the College Football Playoff field? How will everything shake out by the end of Saturday?
Let's break down the pivotal matchups that will impact the final CFP bracket.
Does SMU Need to Win ACC Title to Reach CFP?
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At 11-1, SMU is one win away from securing a first-round bye by winning the ACC championship in its first season in the conference.
However, there's a traditional ACC powerhouse standing in the Mustangs' way.
Clemson has won more ACC titles than any other program (21) and will have an opportunity to claim its eighth in 10 years on Saturday. The Tigers fell to 9-3 with a 17-14 loss to South Carolina last week, but they went 7-1 in conference play to punch their ticket to the ACC Championship Game.
For Clemson, its only path to the CFP is by winning on Saturday. But there's a chance SMU's resume will be strong enough to get into the playoff field even if it loses in the ACC title game. That could bump Alabama (9-3) out of the CFP in the process.
But the Mustangs won't want to leave that decision to the selection committee. They can secure their CFP bid with an ACC title victory, and that is well within their grasp.
Boise State Must Avoid Upset Against UNLV
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Only one Group of Five team will reach the College Football Playoff, and it will be whichever one wins the Mountain West Championship Game on Friday.
The favorite is Boise State, which would also secure a top-four seed and a first-round bye with a win. But it must avoid an upset loss to UNLV, which can win and get into the CFP itself.
The Broncos (11-1, 7-0 in Mountain West play) have been dominant this season. Their only loss was a 37-34 defeat at Oregon on Sept. 7. With that being said, their resume likely isn't strong enough for an at-large bid should they get beaten by UNLV.
The Rebels have two losses this season, and one of those came against the Broncos, who recorded a 29-24 road win at UNLV on Oct. 25.
It would be quite the surprise if Boise State doesn't win and complete its impressive push into the CFP field. But UNLV can't be counted out, making Friday's matchup one to watch.
Big 12 Championship Will Come with Final CFP Berth
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Another conference championship game will be a win-and-get-in matchup, with the loser missing out on the CFP. Those will also be the stakes for the Big 12 Championship Game which will pit Arizona State (10-2, 7-2) against Iowa State (10-2, 7-2).
Few would have predicted the Sun Devils would be in this position in their first year in the conference. Yet, they reeled off five straight wins to end the regular season, a stretch that included victories over Kansas State and BYU.
The Cyclones had a blip in early November, when they lost back-to-back games to Texas Tech and Kansas. But they rebounded with three straight wins, beating Kansas State last week to punch their ticket to the Big 12 title matchup.
The winner of the Big 12 championship is likely to be the No. 12 seed for the College Football Playoff. All that matters, though, is getting into the bracket where anything could happen.
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