Week 14 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
Week 13 was an exciting one, featuring a full Thanksgiving slate, multiple playoff-relevant matchups and several thrilling finishes.
The week kicked off on Thursday afternoon with the Detroit Lions narrowly escaping the Chicago Bears. It ended on Monday night with a scoring extravaganza that the Denver Broncos survived thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns.
The schedule, at least, will be back to normal for Week 14. The Lions and Green Bay Packers are set to face off on Thursday night, while the rest of the slate will play out on Sunday and Monday.
It's still relatively early in the week, which means that most player props aren't available yet. However, we've identified a few box-score bets worth considering based on the early lines.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jordan Love Over 247.5 Passing Yards
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Thursday's Packers-Lions matchup should be one of the most fun games of the week. Detroit (11-1) is pacing the NFC North and remains the front-runner for the conference's No. 1 seed. However, the 9-3 Packers aren't far behind and have found a gritty, physical identity on both sides of the ball.
This is a game that could easily go either way, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love will likely need to have a big game for Green Bay to pull off the upset.
Love will have a good chance to fare well and hit the over on this passing prop, which carries fairly favorable odds at -115 (bet $115 to win $100). Detroit's defense has been good this season but has experienced several key injuries along the way.
Players currently on injured reserve for Detroit include pass-rusher Aidan Hutchinson, cornerback Ennis Rakestraw Jr., safety Ifeatu Melifonwu and linebacker Alex Anzalone.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns against Detroit last week, and Love should be in store for a similar outing.
Josh Jacobs Over 2.5 Receptions
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Even with mounting injuries, Detroit has remained solid against the run. They haven't exactly clamped down on opposing running backs in the passing game, however. Bears ball-carrier D'Andre Swift, for example, averaged 17.5 yards on his two receptions in Week 13.
Getting the football to standout running back Josh Jacobs will be a priority for the Packers. That's why we like the over of this receptions prop at -110.
Jacobs isn't always a significant part of Green Bay's passing plan, but he's a capable dual-threat back who typically sees multiple targets per game. He's finished with fewer than three receptions in seven of his 11 outings this season, but Love knows when to target his outlet receiver.
Last week against Chicago, for example, Jacobs caught four of four targets for 74 receiving yards. While he may not rack up the yardage quite as much in this matchup, he should hit the over for receptions.
Steelers and Browns Over 43 Total Points
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The Pittsburgh Steelers carved out an identity as a defensive team early in the season. However, they haven't been quite as tight on that side of the ball over the past two weeks. Russell Wilson and the offense, meanwhile, found a spark against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in a game that had 82 total points.
We like the total-points over at -110 for Pittsburgh's rematch with the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers will be looking for revenge after losing to Cleveland two weeks ago, and their defense will be as fired up as it has been all season.
However, the Browns have found something in quarterback Jameis Winston, who is the perfect quarterback to trust when picking the over. He threw six total touchdown passes against Denver, with two of those being scored by the Broncos' defense.
Considering how each game went for these teams in Week 13, this over/under feels curiously low. It's worth noting that their Week 12 game, which involved heavy snow late, reached 43 points.
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Bengals and Cowboys Over 49.5 Total Points
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Speaking of the Bengals, we have to like the over (-112) for their Monday night game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas' defense hasn't been particularly good this season, but Cincinnati's has been atrocious. The Bengals have now lost four games in which they've scored more than 30 points.
Cincinnati's lackluster defense has put immense pressure on quarterback Joe Burrow and the rest of the offense.
"I just have to play to the absolute peak of my ability for us to go and win," Burrow said, per NFL.com's Eric Edholm.
Of course, Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the rest of the Bengals offense are capable of scoring on every possession. They should be in store for another 30-point outburst against the Cowboys—who coughed up 20 points to the lowly New York Giants last Thursday—but the Bengals defense is incapable of shutting anyone down at this point.
Expect CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Rush, Luke Schoonmaker and Rico Dowdle to do enough for the Cowboys to hit the over here.
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