Week 14 NFL Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive
Believe it or not, we're down to the final five weeks of the 2024 NFL season. For participants of survivor pools, the proverbial herd has likely thinned substantially.
There weren't any substantial upsets in Week 13, though several games easily could have gone differently than they did. The Kansas City Chiefs, for example, only escaped the Las Vegas Raiders thanks to a botched snap on a would-be game-winning drive.
The Week 14 schedule isn't exactly filled with "sure things," but you'll find some picks and survivor tips for survivor play here, using the early odds as a guide.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
General Survivor Tips for Week 14
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The pool of available teams will be limited for the last time in 2024. Week 14 will feature the final byes of the season, and the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Washington Commanders will be out of action.
Of the 13 games on the schedule, a few are worth avoiding altogether. We'll start with Thursday night's NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions (-3.5) and Green Bay Packers.
We'd avoid this game because of the matchup itself. The Lions have consistently been one of the top teams in the NFL, but the Packers are a familiar foe. Detroit's defense has also suffered numerous injuries, which is a problem against a quarterback like Jordan Love and a physical offense like Green Bay's.
These are two very good teams who have more favorable matchups left on the schedule. Saving them, if they haven't been used already, would be prudent.
Green Bay will face the New Orleans Saints in Week 16, while the Lions will face the banged-up San Francisco 49ers in Week 17.
For similar reasons, we'd avoid the Chiefs (-4) and Los Angeles Chargers game on Sunday night. Kansas City finds ways to win more often than not, but they've barely scraped by over the last couple of weeks. The Chargers are well-coached, physical and familiar with what the Chiefs can and can't do.
Kansas City won the first meeting by a touchdown, but Jim Harbaugh will have his team prepared for the rematch.
We'd also avoid the Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys matchup on Monday night. Dallas has shown some fight over the last couple of weeks, while the Bengals are about as unreliable as any team in the NFL.
Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Cincinnati offense can rack up points in bunches. However, the Bengals defense surrenders points even more rapidly. Cincinnati has a much more potent offense and should prevail, but one untimely mistake from Burrow could easily deliver an upset.
Trust the Eagles Against the Panthers
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Over the past month, the Carolina Panthers have become a team ready to play spoiler. Carolina is 2-2 over its last four games, but its two losses—to Kansas City and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—were both delivered by last-second field goals.
Still, we're inclined to trust the Philadelphia Eagles in this one. Philadelphia (-12) has become the hottest team in the NFL, and it is still chasing the Lions for the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Eagles are unlikely to overlook the Panthers, and they match up with them very well.
Philly's defense has become one of the league's better units, while Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley can batter defenses in a variety of ways. While Carolina has been much better in recent weeks, it still features one of the league's most underwhelming defenses.
Second-year quarterback Bryce Young is playing well enough to keep the Panthers in the game for a bit. But Carolina's defense—which ranks 27th in yards per carry allowed and 29th in net yards per pass attempt allowed—will ultimately allow Philadelphia to pull away.
If Philadelphia is no longer an option in your pool, consider the Minnesota Vikings (-5) against the Atlanta Falcons. Minnesota has had some close calls recently, but it matches up with the Falcons well.
Atlanta lost in Week 13 because of Kirk Cousins' four interceptions, one of them a pick-six. The Vikings rank first in total run defense and will force Cousins to beat them. That isn't a great proposition for Atlanta.
It's No Longer Safe to Trust the 49ers
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In past years, the San Francisco 49ers were one of the most dependable teams for survivor play. If their matchup was favorable, they would deliver more often than not. However, this is no longer the case.
Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season, while running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are both headed to injured reserve. San Francisco's defense, meanwhile, just isn't capable of carrying the team as it once did.
San Francisco (-3.5) is still a home favorite against the Chicago Bears this week, but an upset should surprise exactly no one. Chicago has been very competitive since firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. It may be even more formidable after dumping head coach Matt Eberflus.
The players won't blame Eberflus.
"At the end of the day, we all realize we want the results. We just haven't had the results. That falls upon everybody," tight end Cole Kmet said, per ESPN's Courtney Cronin.
It was evident to anyone watching from the outside, though, that poor coaching was costing Chicago games. If Eberflus really was the problem, Caleb Williams and the Bears will be primed to deliver a statement on Sunday.
If you waited to use the 49ers in your survivor pool, we're sorry, but the window has closed.
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