Week 14 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 13 Results

Thanksgiving Week was a fun one for NFL fans. Games were spread over four separate days and featured several exciting finishes and impactful results. Once the smoke cleared, two teams had secured playoff berths with five weeks remaining in the season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have locked up a playoff spot, while the Buffalo Bills have already claimed the AFC East title. The Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, have been eliminated from contention.

The Pittsburgh Steelers expanded their lead in the AFC North, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers caught the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South—though, Atlanta still owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Week 14 will carry a host of meaningful games, and predicting winners won't be easy. Based on the initial lines, though, we've found a few games worth considering early in the week.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

Minnesota Vikings -5 Versus Atlanta Falcons

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Vikings QB Sam Darnold

The Minnesota Vikings narrowly escaped the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13, winning by a single point. They'll be back at home against another NFC playoff hopeful on Sunday.

The Falcons have shown, at times, that they're capable of beating very good teams. However, they've struggled in recent weeks and don't match up very well with the Vikings.

Atlanta's defense has struggled to pressure opposing passers, which is the best way to disrupt Sam Darnold and the Vikings' aerial attack. The Falcons have also gotten up and down play from their quarterback, Kirk Cousins.

Cousins tossed four interceptions in the Week 13 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, a game the Falcons could have won handily if not for the turnovers. Minnesota's defense does two things extremely well. It can corral the run, and it can get after the quarterback.

The Falcons probably won't be able to lean on Bijan Robinson and their rushing attack in this matchup, which is a massive problem. Asking Cousins to carry the offense on the road against an aggressive defense is far from an enticing game plan. Minnesota should win much more comfortably than it did in Week 13.

Miami Dolphins -6.5 Versus New York Jets

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Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

The Miami Dolphins did not play well, at all, in the chilling confines of Lambeau Field on Thursday night. The Green Bay Packers physically dominated Miami on both sides of the ball, cruising to a 30-17 victory.

However, the Dolphins will be back in Miami for their Week 13 matchup with the listless New York Jets. The Jets just blew a two-touchdown third-quarter lead to the Seattle Seahawks, due in no small part to some erratic play by quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers isn't likely to be any better this week against the Dolphins, whose defensive strength has been against the pass. Miami's offensive speed should be back in play after it was largely absent in Green Bay.

Divisional games can be tricky, and this one may remain close for a while. However, Tua Tagovailoa is likely to make fewer mistakes than Rodgers, and the Dolphins have a lot more on the line.

At 5-7, the Dolphins are still technically alive in the wild-card hunt. The Jets are simply looking to play out the season and reach their inevitable 2025 reset.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 at Dallas Cowboys

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Bengals RB Chase Brown

This line might seem large, considering the Cincinnati Bengals will visit the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13. However, there are several reasons to believe that Cincinnati can win by at least a touchdown.

For one, Dallas hasn't been good at home this season. The Cowboys defeated the New York Giants 27-20 on Thanksgiving, but that was their first home victory of 2024.

Secondly, the Bengals feature one of the best offenses in the NFL. While their defense has been atrocious, Dallas' defense hasn't been markedly better. In an offensive track meet, we'll trust Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Chase Brown more than Cooper Rush, CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle.

And while the 5-7 Cowboys may have a better chance of sneaking into the postseason than the 4-8 Bengals, Cincinnati isn't going to just quit on the season.

"We will be remembered by how we handled this," Burrow said, per ESPN's Ben Baby.

Expect the Bengals to have one more memorable performance, at least offensively, against the Cowboys on Monday night.

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