B/R College Football 2024 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 12
The journey has not been easy. The results, especially early on, were lacking. Doubt, for many longtime readers, likely kicked in at some point over the last three months.
Betting on college football is hard, and anyone who says otherwise hasn't bet on college football long enough.
At long last, however, we're above .500. A 6-3 week picking games against the spread in Week 11 has us at a cool 51-49 on the year. Over the past two weeks, we're an even cooler 13-5.
After many failed attempts to stage a comeback early on, we're finally hot. Now, we need to stay hot.
Before we get into our Week 12 picks, here's a look at what went right and wrong with the previous week.
The Good: Ole Miss (+2.5) vs. Georgia: Lane Kiffin finally did it, and he did it convincingly against one of the great powers in the sport. After a bit of an iffy start, this one became comfy at the end.
The Bad: North Texas (+5.5) vs. Army: Sometimes this real estate is reserved for terrible picks. And sometimes your teams throw multiple interceptions late in the game while preparing to score a touchdown. Brutal loss from North Texas.
Onward we go.
For the latest spreads on futures and games, head to DraftKings.
Kansas (+3) vs. BYU
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Both squads won this group money last week, although that's not why this game is being included. With that acknowledged, the current state of both programs—especially their records—is why this game is front and center.
BYU, following a wild, late comeback that included some help from the officials, is still unbeaten. The fact that the Cougars are just a three-point favorite at home against a three-win team speaks to exactly how weird the Big 12 has been this season.
It also showcases just how up and down the year has been for the Jayhawks, although a 45-36 victory over Iowa State last week showcased what this team was capable of.
Further context about this Kansas season is important. All but one loss has been decided by less than a touchdown, which says a lot about the types of games this team has played in this year.
For BYU, which needed a miraculous comeback in a tough environment to sneak past a middling Utah team last week, the first loss feels like a matter of time.
That time has come.
South Carolina (-12.5) vs. Missouri
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If I'm being completely honest, I had to do a bit of a double take when I first saw this point spread.
Given how Missouri played last year—along with the expectations it had coming in—it's a little odd to see the Tigers as such a robust underdog. And I absolutely love every bit of it.
Let's be honest about the Tigers: This isn't the team we thought we were getting, and that part isn't changing now. This team has played three road games this season against UMass, Alabama and Texas A&M.
Excluding the win over UMass, Missouri was outscored 75-10 in those games.
South Carolina, after a rough stretch early on against a difficult schedule, has found its footing. The last three games against Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt have been dominant, and two of those games were played on the road.
At home, the Gamecocks feel poised to dominate. Don't be enticed by all those points. Lay them, and don't think twice.
Arkansas (+13.5) vs. Texas
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From a robust SEC favorite to a slightly more robust SEC underdog, we're putting our faith in the Hogs this week.
Given the way Razorbacks played the last time they hit the field, this could seem a bit unwise. Arkansas was demolished 63-31 by Ole Miss, and Sam Pittman's fascinating job security took another turn.
After a much-needed bye, Pittman will attempt to deliver a better effort against another team vying for a College Football Playoff berth.
In terms of variables, Texas' ability to play on the road should at least be called into question. A few weeks ago, we saw the Longhorns nearly lose outright at Vanderbilt. Before then, the last time this team played on the road was early September against Michigan.
We've seen Arkansas play close with Texas A&M and win outright against Tennessee at home. Yes, we've also seen a few clunkers at home, too.
This won't be one of those. The Hogs score enough points to put another scare into a big favorite.
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Michigan State (+2.5) vs. Illinois
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For Illinois, it has been a season of swings.
After winning four games to start the season—including two over teams that were ranked at the time—the Illini have since lost three of the last five. Granted, two of those losses came to Oregon and Penn State. Neither of those games were particularly close.
Which leads us to this fascinating line that is showing plenty of respect for Michigan State, a team that has lost four of its last five games. Like Illinois, however, these results require context.
Michigan State has lost to Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana during that time.
In short, it's been tough.
This feels like a game that will be on the uglier side. The fact that the oddsmakers feel strong enough about a 4-5 team is good enough for me.
It won't be pretty or easy, but it will be enough. Sparty pulls a small road upset.
Washington (-3.5) vs. UCLA
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Let's start by giving the Bruins some credit.
After a brutal start, UCLA has won three consecutive games. The offense has done enough, and the defense has looked overpowering at times. While I questioned the hire of DeShaun Foster, the team has undeniably made strides over the past month.
With that acknowledged, this feels like a tricky matchup. Sure, the Washington you knew and loved from a season ago is long gone. The current version is 5-5, having just endured a gauntlet stretch in the schedule.
Having played only one home game over the past month, this is a time to get right. The offense should find more success this week than it did at Penn State, and the defense should have a much easier assignment this time around.
For as well as UCLA has played, this road trip will not be easy. Washington will take full advantage of home field and win this one by more than a touchdown.
Other Games on the Card
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Cal (-8.5) vs. Syracuse
It's a long road trip, and a long road trip might not bode well for a team like Syracuse. At home, Cal is positioned to cruise in a conference game—yes, this is a conference game—by double digits.
Georgia (-10) vs. Tennessee
A late add to the list, which is why it wasn't featured earlier. At home, we'll see a hungrier, crisper and more desperate Georgia football team.
Old Dominion (+4) vs. James Madison
James Madison has been quietly excellent, although Old Dominion, despite a 4-5 record, has talent. Look for ODU to push the seven-win team to the brink.
Marshall (-8.5) vs. Coastal Carolina
Have we bet on too many games featuring Coastal Carolina this season? Maybe. Are we going to stop anytime soon? Absolutely not. Marshall rolls.
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