Week 10 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 9 Results
Week 9 was a pivotal one for several teams in the NFL. Half of the 2024 season remains, but many teams now know for certain whether contending this year is realistic. Change has already come for a few franchises that are now playing for the future.
The New Orleans Saints, for example, lost to the rival Carolina Panthers. On Monday, the Saints fired head coach Dennis Allen and named special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi as interim coach.
Struggling teams like New Orleans, Carolina, the Las Vegas Raiders and the Cleveland Browns aren't going to make the playoffs in 2024. However, there going to play hard over the second half of the season, especially with jobs potentially on the line.
Upsets are going to happen, but a few early Week 10 lines appear to be exploitable based on what we saw in Week 9.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Washington Commanders
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One of this week's most entertaining games will involve the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders—two playoff-caliber squads on opposite ends of the quarterback spectrum.
The Commanders have ridden rookie QB Jayden Daniels and a revamped defense to a 7-2 record. The 6-2 Steelers, meanwhile, have a top-10 defense and a steady hand in veteran quarterback Russell Wilson.
In this matchup, we're inclined to trust Pittsburgh just a little bit more. The Commanders largely handled the New York Giants in Week 9, but a late touchdown allowed New York to pull within five points.
While Washington's defense is far and away better than it was a year ago, it's still vulnerable. Pittsburgh's defense is stellar, and the Steelers have had an extra week to prepare for Daniels, Terry McLaurin and Co.—Pittsburgh is coming off its bye week.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 25-6 against rookie quarterbacks. Daniels isn't a typical rookie, but we still like taking Pittsburgh and the points.
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 at New Orleans Saints
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Will a coaching change spark the Saints in Week 10? That's the big question as New Orleans enters a matchup with the rival Atlanta Falcons. The other uncertainty involves the health of Falcons receiver Drake London, who exited Sunday's game with a hip injury.
"The belief is he suffered a hip pointer, source said. While those can be frustrating, they are not long-term issues," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport posted on X.
With or without London, the Falcons should have the offensive talent needed to outlast the Saints. Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts are capable pass-catchers, and Atlanta can lean on Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and the running game.
New Orleans has allowed 5.1 yards per carry this season.
Even if a coaching change motivates the Saints, it's unlikely to completely solve the tackling issues that have plagued the defense. The Falcons should win by more than a field goal, and this line is likely to move further in Atlanta's direction during the week.
Buffalo Bills -4.5 at Indianapolis Colts
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The Buffalo Bills are one of the best teams in the AFC, but their defense has been susceptible to the run. That's a potential issue against the Indianapolis Colts, though it would be more concerning if Indy was still riding with dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson.
The Colts can still move the ball on the ground with Jonathan Taylor, but they provide no threat of a running quarterback with Joe Flacco behind center. Buffalo's defense has been fairly reliable against the pass, and it's finding a rhythm on offense.
The one thing to watch here is the status of Bills receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. Cooper missed Week 9 with a wrist injury, while Coleman suffered a wrist injury during the game.
Even if Buffalo is short-handed, though, it should be able to lean on the ground game against the Colts' 31st-ranked run defense.
Between James Cook, Ray Davis and quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills have options for attacking the Colts with different running concepts. They should be able to control the tempo, force Indy to maximize every possession and force Flacco into making mistakes.
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