NFL Odds Week 10: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule
Believe it or not, the 2024 NFL season is halfway over. The playoff picture is starting to come into focus, and the league's good teams are separating themselves from the bad—and there are several bad ones.
Entering Week 10, nine teams have exactly two wins.
This doesn't mean, however, that bad teams won't have competitive games against good ones. On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills (7-2) needed a last-second field goal to beat the Miami Dolphins (2-6) at home. The Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) needed an end-zone interception to survive the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7).
Parity exists in the NFL, even if records often suggest otherwise. That can make picking against the spread extremely difficult, but we have identified a few early lines for Week 10 worth considering.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Chargers -8 vs. Titans
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This is an extremely large line for a midseason game involving two good defenses. The Tennessee Titans enter the week ranked first in yards allowed. The Los Angeles Chargers enter the week ranked first in points allowed.
In a likely defensive battle, shenanigans could ensue. A turnover or two could swing an otherwise one-sided game in an instant—something we saw during the Eagles and Jaguars game on Sunday.
However, the Chargers are at home and have a decided advantage at quarterback—regardless of who Tennessee chooses to start. Justin Herbert is a couple of tiers above both Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, and he's likely to make fewer game-altering mistakes.
With Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey both healthy again, Los Angeles' offense looked like a potent unit in Week 9. It produced 342 yards and 27 points against a good (not great) Cleveland Browns defense.
The early line feels like it's meant to push bettors toward Tennessee's side. Los Angeles is a much more complete team and should win by more than a touchdown.
Vikings -4 at Jaguars
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The Jaguars showed a lot of resilience in Week 9, while the Minnesota Vikings appeared very vulnerable. Minnesota's secondary (14 passing TDs allowed) remains problematic, while its offense is beginning to show some cracks.
Losing starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw (knee) for the season certainly hasn't helped. The big issue, though, is that quarterback Sam Darnold has become mistake-prone after a strong start to the 2024 season. The 27-year-old took four sacks and tossed a pair of interceptions during Sunday night's win over the Indianapolis Colts.
However, the Vikings still beat Indianapolis by eight points. Minnesota's pass rush is strong, and with T.J. Hockenson back in the lineup, its offense has a surplus of playmakers.
Jacksonville certainly has the talent needed to make this one interesting. For the Jags to actually win, however, they will need Trevor Lawrence to make significantly fewer mistakes than Darnold.
Right now, that doesn't feel likely. Minnesota winning by a touchdown does.
Lions -3 at Texans
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The Houston Texans are probably still a playoff team. However, injuries at wide receiver, poor pass protection and a little bit of second-year regression from C.J. Stroud are causes for concern. The Texans lost convincingly to a New York Jets team that had been struggling last Thursday because of these issues.
"This is definitely a great wake-up call for us to tighten up the ship," Stroud said after the loss, per Cole Thompson of Texans Wire.
Houston will have a hard time righting anything against a Detroit Lions team clicking in almost every phase. The one advantage the Texans have here is that Detroit has struggled to rush the passer with Aidan Hutchinson (fractured leg) on injured reserve.
However, Detroit has enough individual playmakers on defense and legitimate stars on offense to be a threat against any team. The Lions didn't take down Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love on Sunday, but they still recorded a double-digit win.
Expect this line to grow before Sunday night. Getting in now would be advisable.
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