CFB Playoff Picture 2024-25: Bracket Projections, Scenarios After Week 11 AP Rankings
The competition for the at-large berths into the College Football Playoff was significantly altered by the results across Week 10.
The Texas A&M Aggies, Clemson Tigers and Iowa State Cyclones all suffered upset losses that took them from the fringe of the at-large conversation to long-shot status.
Those three teams, plus the Penn State Nittany Lions and Pittsburgh Panthers, took tumbles in Sunday's AP Top 25 poll.
Penn State is still in decent shape to make the CFB Playoff, but it can't afford another loss. The same can be said about the Indiana Hoosiers, who are now firmly inside the top 12.
The next playoff-altering matchup takes place in Baton Rouge on Saturday, where the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers are playing in what could be an elimination game for an at-large spot.
Alabama-LSU Is Most Important Week 11 Matchup For Playoff
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Alabama and LSU are in better shape going into Week 11 than they were for their Week 10 bye weeks.
The slew of losses suffered by teams in front of them opened up the path to the playoffs a bit, but one of them will still leave Saturday with three losses.
Even with all the upsets, a three-loss team likely is not qualifying for the playoff unless it wins its conference championship game.
That's why Saturday's clash in Baton Rouge is so important. The loser will most likely be on the outside looking in when the bracket comes out.
Alabama has the easier remaining schedule after Saturday, so it should cruise into the playoff if it wins in Baton Rouge.
LSU still has to play the Vanderbilt Commodores on November 23. Vandy already knocked off Bama this season and has been one of the toughest underdogs in the FBS this season.
Bama and LSU will at least be favored in every remaining game after Saturday, which will make the winner a strong candidate to earn an at-large berth.
Indiana Now In Great Position to Land At-Large Bid
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The Indiana Hoosiers just keep winning and moving up the rankings.
The Hoosiers are now a top-10 team under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti and only one loss might occur on their remaining schedule.
Indiana faces the Ohio State Buckeyes on November 23 in a game that could determine if the Hoosiers can go as far as the Big Ten Championship Game.
A loss to OSU does not count out the Hoosiers, as long as they beat the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday and the Purdue Boilermakers on November 30.
An 11-1 team with a loss to a top-five team is basically guaranteed to get into the 12-team playoff, and if that is the case, four Big Ten programs will make the playoff.
Complexion of ACC, Big 12 Races Changed by Week 10 Upsets
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The ACC and Big 12 have had the most topsy-turvy standings throughout the season.
That trend continued on Saturday, when the SMU Mustangs surged up to second place in the ACC thanks to their win over Pitt and Clemson's loss to the Louisville Cardinals.
SMU is undefeated in ACC play and it has three easy games on paper after its Week 11 bye, so it has a likely chance of contending for a playoff spot.
The Mustangs will likely go after the ACC's automatic bid in the ACC Championship Game against the Miami Hurricanes. Both teams are 5-0 in ACC play.
The BYU Cougars are the only team with an undefeated record in Big 12 play. The Iowa State Cyclones and Colorado Buffaloes are both 4-1.
BYU has four games left to stay atop the Big 12, but given how chaotic league play has been, there's no guarantee that happens.
Colorado was one of the biggest winners in Week 10, without even playing on Saturday, and now it has a realistic path to the playoff, not just as an at-large team, but as the Big 12 champion.
Deion Sanders' team needs to get past the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who beat Iowa State last week, first to get closer to reaching the playoff.
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