College Football Playoffs 2024-25: Examining Bracket Elimination Scenarios in Week 10

The pair of Top 25 games on the Week 10 college football schedule carry plenty of College Football Playoff implications.

The top-five Big Ten battle between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes will determine the top contender to the Oregon Ducks.

Saturday's winner in Happy Valley will have a direct path to the Big Ten Championship Game, where it will play for one of the four automatic bids that go to winners of the four major conference championship games.

The Pittsburgh Panthers' contest with the SMU Mustangs feels like a playoff elimination game. The loser would be fourth at best in the ACC and likely outside the Top 25 with only a few weeks left in the regular season.

Ohio State-Penn State Winner Will Compete For Big Ten's Automatic Bid

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COLUMBUS, OH - OCTOBER 26: Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) runs off the field after scoring a touchdown during the game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Ohio State Buckeyes on October 26, 2024, at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

There are no clinching scenarios for the 12-team playoff until the first week of December, when the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 have their conference championship games.

However, the winner of the Ohio State-Penn State clash this weekend can take one giant step toward earning the Big Ten's automatic bid.

Penn State does not have any expected hurdles left on its schedule after Week 10, so a win would set it on a collision course with Oregon at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Ohio State still has the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers left on its docket, but that game will be played in Columbus, as will the rivalry contest with a Michigan Wolverines team that looks nothing like the title-winning squad of a year ago.

Oregon will likely be viewed as the favorite to win the Big Ten title game, regardless of who its opponent is. The Ducks have looked every bit the top team in the country through nine weeks.

The loser of the Ohio State-Penn State game will not be eliminated from playoff contention, and that team would likely be the third Big Ten team selected for the 12-team postseason format.

However, there is a scenario in which Ohio State loses on Saturday and then gets upset again in November. That would cause the selection committee to rethink its status inside the top 12.

Pittsburgh-SMU Feels Like Elimination Game

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DURHAM, NORTH CAROLINA - OCTOBER 26: Brashard Smith #1 of the Southern Methodist Mustangs runs for a touchdown in overtime against the Duke Blue Devils during the game at Wallace Wade Stadium on October 26, 2024 in Durham, North Carolina. The Mustangs won 28-27 in overtime. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Pittsburgh and SMU head into Week 10 with a combined 14-1 record, but it is likely that only the winner of Saturday's clash in Dallas makes a serious push for the CFP.

Pittsburgh is 7-0 and only ranked 18th in the AP Top 25. SMU checks in at No. 20 with its 7-1 mark.

A win should put either team into the top 15, but then getting into the top 10-12 of the polls may be difficult because of the high-quality teams in front of them.

Additionally, if the Miami Hurricanes and Clemson Tigers keep winning, there won't be much movement within the ACC itself.

Pittsburgh is set up better to make a playoff push because it faces Clemson on November 16 at home. Wins in those two games would likely get the Panthers into the ACC Championship Game to face Miami.

SMU faces three unranked foes after Saturday, so a win over Pitt would at least place it in a good spot.

However, the Mustangs need Miami or Clemson to lose so they do not fall victim to tiebreakers that come into force with three teams that are undefeated in conference play.

Ole Miss Can't Afford Another Loss

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OXFORD, MS - OCTOBER 26: Mississippi Rebels tight end Caden Prieskorn (86) runs with the ball after a reception during a college football game against the Oklahoma Sooners on October 26, 2024 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Ole Miss Rebels are one of a few SEC teams that can't afford to lose another game.

Lane Kiffin's side already lost to the Kentucky Wildcats and LSU Tigers to leave itself in a precarious spot entering November.

On paper, the Week 10 road trip to face the Arkansas Razorbacks does not seem threatening, but the Hogs beat the Tennessee Volunteers in Fayetteville already this season.

Ole Miss resides in a look-ahead spot as well, as the Georgia Bulldogs come to Oxford next week in a game the Rebels must win.

Suffering an upset loss to Arkansas would make Ole Miss' Week 11 home game meaningless in the context of its playoff hopes and leave it to play the role of spoiler for UGA's postseason candidacy.