Biggest Winners and Losers from 2024 NBA Preseason so Far
It is just about time for us to welcome back the NBA regular reason. But before we do, let us first bid farewell to preseason hoops in style: with another rousing round of winners and losers.
Exhibition basketball should, as always, be consumed and reflected upon with a gigatonne of salt. Teams are experimenting with lineups and styles, not all of which will translate to games that matter. They are also generally treating their most important players with kid gloves. We should not get too caught up in absences or underperformances—unless it's absolutely necessary.
This batch of preseason observations will try its very hardest to focus on takeaways with sustainability. Losers will be populated by concerning developments. Winners will consist of players or teams or happenings that are exceeding expectations in ways that could plausibly become new normals.
Nothing here is etched in stone. Things can shift throughout the regular season. Heck, they can still change in the preseason, because our most notable winners and losers are being cobbled together entering exhibition tilts on Oct. 17.
Regardless, everything here is a development worth tracking over the longer haul—for both better and worse.
Dalton Knecht, Los Angeles Lakers
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Dalton Knecht showed some offensive flashes through his first four preseason games—specifically his willingness to let it fly from deep.
Preseason Game No. 5 may have assured him a spot in the Los Angeles Lakers' regular rotation.
Knecht pumped in 35 points during Thursday's victory against the Phoenix Suns, including 20 straight during the fourth quarter and overtime:
One performance does not dictate a role, let alone a career trajectory. But his meld of high-volume contested and uncontested shooting makes it tough not to overreact. The Lakers offense needs this exact type of offensive threat, and nobody else on the roster is equipped, conceptually or in practice, to consistently bring this kind of heat.
Los Angeles, of course, becomes a winner by extension if Knecht is ready for minutes right away. But this detonation is a bigger W for the rookie himself, who may have staked his claim to immediate floor time over more established options on the perimeter.
Loser: Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Oklahoma City Thunder announced that Isaiah Hartenstein suffered a "small, non-displaced fracture" in his left hand during their Oct. 15 victory over the Denver Nuggets, and that he will be re-evaluated in five to six weeks.
This is a major bummer for both player and team. But it's a bigger letdown for Hartenstein.
Sure, the Thunder will be impacted. Hartenstein was their big-money signing over the offseason. They profile as matchup-proof with him in the rotation. His size and skill translates to minutes both alongside and independent of Chet Holmgren. There is no frontcourt that should intimidate a full-strength Oklahoma City squad.
Sans Hartenstein, though, the Thunder are still...one of the NBA's two or three best teams. They have the depth and dynamism and experience playing without him to continue thriving in his absence.
Hartenstein, meanwhile, is losing valuable time to acclimate and establish himself inside the rotation. His place in higher-stakes lineups was already debatable because Oklahoma City first and foremost views Holmgren as a center. That status will only be shakier when he's not on track to return until basically December. And that's assuming he's ready to rock by the end of this five-to-six-week period.
Winner: Tyler Kolek, New York Knicks
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Anyone who has Cameron Payne Sharpie'd in as the New York Knicks' primary Jalen Brunson backup may want to purchase some industrial strength multi-surface cleaner. Tyler Kolek might be coming for that spot. (Note: The Knicks view Deuce McBride as more of a wing.)
Reading too much into rookie preseason performances is dangerous, especially when said newbies play for championship contenders. Counting on head coach Tom Thibodeau, of all people, to entrust a first-year guard with significant offensive responsibility is all sorts of counterintuitive.
And yet, Kolek is faring well enough to upend the norm. His vision and decision-making shined during summer league and continues to shimmer now. Defenses may eventually make him pay for his spotty aggression as a scorer, but his live-dribble awareness is bonkers for a rookie.
This is also bonkers (preseason caveats and all):
Payne still feels as if he'll get the benefit of the doubt over Kolek to start the year. But if the 23-year-old rook sustains this brand of ball control while shooting a reasonable clip on threes, he will have the inside track on claiming a spot in the meat and potatoes of New York's rotation.
Loser: Los Angeles Clippers
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If you were hoping the end of the preseason would bring clarity on Kawhi Leonard's timeline for return, well, you should probably know better by now. The 33-year-old was preemptively shut down for the Los Angeles Clippers' exhibition slate and still isn't practicing with the team as he recovers from what we're (essentially) left to assume is continued right knee inflammation.
Navigating the Western Conference without Kawhi playing in a majority of games is never a reality for which the Clippers were ready. They are even less prepared with Paul George in Philadelphia. A 35-year-old James Harden is now the lifeblood of their offense—and, potentially, their entire team.
Granted, Los Angeles and Leonard could strictly be taking precautionary measures in advance of games that count toward the standings. But, uh, assistant coach Brian Shaw's recent comments paint a different picture.
"We're out here," he told reporters (via Tomar Azarly of ClutchPoints). "He has not been a part of what we've been doing on a daily basis. I know the company line has been that we're going to be patient with him. He's doing everything that he can to rehab it and strengthen that knee on his own with our medical staff and we just dealing with the guys that we have."
This reads like someone trying and only somewhat succeeding to show restraint. And if you are worried something about his tone gets lost in transcription, go ahead and watch the clip for yourself:
What already forecasted as a confusing, awkward and verging on futile season for the Clippers is quickly devolving into something that seems much, much, muuuuch worse. Perhaps this winds up being a captive-of-the-moment overreaction. But given Leonard's laundry list of past knee issues, it's tough to view what's happening right now as anything other than a precursor to a doomy and gloomy 2024-25 season.
Winner: Lonzo Ball, Chicago Bulls
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Three knee surgeries and more than 1,000 days passed since we last saw Lonzo Ball play NBA basketball. That all changed during the Chicago Bulls' Oct. 16 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Ball returned to the floor for the first time since Jan. 14, 2022—a span of 1,006 days. And not only did he take the court, but he looked...good.
Sporting News' Stephen Noh provided an excellent breakdown of Lonzo's return. The most notable, and probably important, takeaway? Ball isn't moving like someone who hasn't played pro ball in almost three years. The defensive and off-ball mobility, in particular, seem a notch or three slower, but they are decidedly game-ready:
Ascribing profound value to a 15-minute preseason stint amounts to an overreaction. Ball will encounter setbacks. Not every moment on the floor will be pretty. The Chicago Bulls will likely bring him along slowly and gradually, managing both his minutes and total appearances.
Whatever.
Glimpses and stretches of Lonzo, however brief or extended, are better than no Lonzo at all. This is someone who was a driving force of the last Bulls squad that looked legitimately good. And he's attempting to return from a near-unprecedented double-cartilage transplant.
Reaching this point, playing at all, is freaking awesome—a beyond massive W.
Loser: Philadelphia 76ers
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Top-of-the-roster availability always loomed as a major swing factor for these Philadelphia 76ers. And while we can write off absences as preseason precaution, it doesn't necessarily bode well that two of their three stars will finish the exhibition slate on the shelf.
Joel Embiid was shut down for the preseason because of his left knee, no longer expects to play in back-to-backs ever again and will reportedly continue wearing a knee brace. Paul George suffered a left knee injury during Philly's Oct. 14 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. The Sixers have since announced he incurred no structural damage and will be reevaluated basically at the start of the regular season.
Maybe these prove to be short-term blips. But it's hard to write them off as such given the subjects.
Embiid's availability has been a career-long battle. Dismissing any hangups, however precautionary or seemingly minor, is not a luxury enjoyed by Philadelphia. Even the concept of managing his status on back-to-backs, while so obviously the right course, is unnerving.
George doesn't come with the same health-bill baggage. He is also neither young nor a billboard for durability. He is entering his age-34 season and has averaged over 25 absences per year the past half-decade.
The bar for peace of mind in Philadelphia is not exceptionally high. Survive the regular season with Embiid and George intact, and the Sixers instantly become one of the NBA's top threats to win it all.
Then again, when both stars already failed to emerge from the preseason better for wear, can we really bank on them, and by extension this team, peaking 82 more games from now?
Winner: 3-Point Shooting Enthusiasts
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Disclaimer: Preseason shot selection does not necessarily translate to the games that matter. Last year, nine NBA teams attempted at least 40 three-pointers per 100 possessions through their exhibition contests. The Boston Celtics were the only squad to sustain that rate during the regular season.
Still, three-point volume is ratcheting up in a way right now that makes you believe teams will continue letting 'em rip when the games start to count.
Thirteen squads are currently launching at least 40 three-pointers per 100 possessions. More incredibly, six teams are clearing 45 attempted triples per 100 possessions. That's up from just one last preseason. (Surprise, surprise: It was Boston.)
This uptick holds on an individual basis to boot. Among nearly 400 players averaging 15 or more minutes across at least three preseason appearances, a whopping 155 are getting up eight or more threes per 36 minutes. That's an increase from the 139 players last year who met this same criteria.
There is no way this trend holds in its entirety. We learn as much basically every season. But the rate at which so many teams are uncorking threes suggests the long-range revolution has yet to even sniff its peak.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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