Week 7 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets
Well, the seventh week of the 2024 NFL season has certainly gotten off to an interesting start. While no coaches have been fired (yet), we saw two big receiver trades on Tuesday.
The New York Jets acquired Davante Adams from the Las Vegas Raiders, while the Buffalo Bills acquired Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns. Both pass-catchers are poised to play significant roles with their new teams, though, it's hard to know if either will have a major impact in Week 7.
What we do know is that several players and teams are poised to shine during the upcoming schedule. With this in mind, let's examine a few of our favorite box-score bets based on the early Week 7 lines.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 Receptions
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New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has been banged-up over the past couple of weeks, but it would be a surprise if he doesn't suit up for Thursday's showdown with Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos.
As long as Kamara plays, we love this over/under, if not necessarily the odds. Kamara is -175 (bet $175 to win $100) to catch at least five passes against Denver, which he should do, barring injury.
Spencer Rattler is in line to make his second start for the Saints, who should use Kamara as a safety net for the young signal-caller. New Orleans may also be without top receiver Chris Olave, who suffered a concussion in Week 6. It's unlikely he'll be back on a short week.
"[Head coach Dennis Allen] said they have to be cautious with Chris Olave and when he's able to go with a history of concussions," Erin Summers of ESPN and NFL Network posted on X.
Rashid Shaheed is also dealing with a knee injury, and if he and Olave are out, Kamara may become the top option in the passing game.
C.J. Stroud Over 246.5 Passing Yards
2 of 4
The Bills have a new No. 1 receiver, and their old one, Stefon Diggs, is now filling that role for the Houston Texans. He's become C.J. Stroud's top target because Nico Collins is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Stroud only passed for 192 yards against the New England Patriots in Week 6, but he should have a much more prolific outing against the Green Bay Packers this week. That's why we like the over (-115) for this line.
The reality is that Stroud may have to carry the Texans offense if Houston is going to steal one in Green Bay. Jordan Love and the Packers are on a roll, and the Texans aren't likely to hold them to 21 points, as they did New England.
Having Joe Mixon back in the lineup is huge for Houston, but the Packers have been solid against the run (8th in rushing yards allowed). They've been far less reliable against the pass (25th), which sets up this game as a true quarterback duel.
Josh Jacobs Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
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While the Texans may not find a ton of running room this week, the Packers will have a shot. Houston ranks fourth in net yards per pass attempt allowed but only 17th in yards per carry allowed (4.6).
Green Bay's offensive game plan should center heavily on Josh Jacobs and the running game.
Jacobs is -115 to rush for at least 61 yards on Sunday. That's a mark he's hit four times this season and in each of the past two games. And while Green Bay does occasionally sub in running back Emmanuel Wilson, Jacobs typically sees the bulk of the backfield work.
The 26-year-old has averaged 18 carries per game this season and has logged 18 or more in each of the past two weeks. He should see at least 18 carries against Houston and should have a real shot at reaching the coveted 100-yard mark.
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Commanders and Panthers Over 51.5 Total Points
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Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been phenomenal over the first six weeks, and he has Washington's offense clicking. The Commanders rank second in the NFL in scoring and are poised to eviscerate the Carolina Panthers defense.
While much of the attention in Carolina has been focused on the quarterback situation—Bryce Young was benched after Week 2—defense has been a bigger concern. The Panthers rank dead-last in points allowed.
Washington may drop 40 points by itself on Sunday, something it has already done once this season. However, the Commanders' 22nd-ranked defense is unlikely to completely shut down Andy Dalton and the Commanders.
With Dalton under center, Carolina's offense has been functional. Three of the Panthers' last four games have reached 52 total points, as have three of Washington's last four. This one should follow suit.
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