1 Reason Why Every Top-25 Team Will or Won't Get into the CFP
In a matter of weeks, the first College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed. From that point forward, the beginning of the end of the season will commence—a wild stretch that will ultimately provide us with the sport's first-ever 12-team postseason.
The race to the bracket began the moment the first game was played, although the resumes for all teams have only just started to solidify. Any team currently inside the AP Poll is within striking distance—some clearly more than others. Although at this point, no team inside the top 25 has been eliminated.
To help escalate this conversation, we're looking at all 25 teams. More specifically, we're giving a reason why each will and won't make the College Football Playoff.
There is much to discuss. Let's dive in.
25. Navy
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Why Navy Will Make the College Football Playoff
A Group of Five program will get in, so why not this one? Navy is unbeaten, and its toughest games (Notre Dame and Army) will be played at home or on a neutral field. The rest of the schedule is certainly workable, and having the nation's No. 2 rushing attack will certainly help guide this program forward.
Why Navy Won't Make the College Football Playoff
In all likelihood, only one Group of Five team is getting in, meaning Navy will have to conquer the rest of the field. (This is not the last time this point will be made.) As a result, the room for error is almost non-existent. For as good as this team has looked, there are other Group of Five teams we like more.
24. Michigan
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Why Michigan Will Make the College Football Playoff
The defense still has elite players. For as bad as the offense has been at times, the defensive side is still loaded with future NFL starters. It might not be what it was last season, nor would one expect it to be, but it can still be an exceptional group when healthy.
Why Michigan Won't Make the College Football Playoff
Where do we start? How about the schedule? The Wolverines already have two losses, and they still play Illinois, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. This is less than ideal. If you wanted to point out the offense as the key issue keeping this team from the postseason, well, that would certainly work as well.
23. Army
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Why Army Will Make the College Football Playoff
Bryson Daily. It's that simple. Army's starting QB has been exceptional, and he seems to be the perfect individual to lead this unique offensive attack on a deep run. Daily is more than capable of leading the Black Knights to the playoff, especially with the Group of Five guaranteed a spot.
Why Army Won't Make the College Football Playoff
Like any team outside a major conference on this list, the room for error is miniscule. Sound familiar? Army still plays Notre Dame and Navy, and neither game will be easy. With essentially one playoff spot up for grabs, Army will likely need to be perfect or close to it.
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22. Illinois
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Why Illinois Will Make the College Football Playoff
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been one of the biggest surprises in college football this season, accounting for 15 touchdowns and only one interception. When he plays, regardless of opponent, Illinois has a shot in just about any game.
Why Illinois Won't Make the College Football Playoff
In short, the rest of the Big Ten. While Illinois is ranked, it'll have to compete with Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana for a playoff spot, just in its own conference. For a team that just nearly lost to Purdue—perhaps the worst team in the conference—that seems like a lot to ask.
21. SMU
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Why SMU Will Make the College Football Playoff
Oh, the schedule is somethin'. It's remarkably favorable. SMU will play Stanford, Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Virginia and Cal the rest of the way. It might have to win the ACC Championship Game after that, although the path seems somewhat clear. Plus, the lone loss against BYU looks better every week.
Why SMU Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The defense is still a concern, and it will likely bite this team at some point. Giving up 42 points to TCU, in particular, stands out. While the schedule certainly provides a favorable path, this defense, currently ranked outside the top 50 in CFB, might ultimately sink this ship.
20. Pitt
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Why Pitt Will Make the College Football Playoff
Grit. It's an odd and somewhat cliche thing to say about a team vying for a playoff spot, but it's a fitting description for Pitt. The Panthers are 4-0 in games decided by 10 points or less, and a handful of those games have been wild. Those experiences could be massive down the stretch as more moments arise.
Why Pitt Won't Make the College Football Playoff
From an ACC standpoint, the schedule still has teeth. Pitt plays at SMU, at Louisville, at Boston College and Clemson. These are all winnable games. They are also very losable games. Can the grit actually last every single week for a full year?
19. Missouri
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Why Missouri Will Make the College Football Playoff
If you have Brady Cook and Luther Burden, you have a shot. Throw in wideout Theo Wease Jr., and Missouri still has some of the best skill position talent in the country. It hasn't always looked that way this year, although this group could be a problem for anyone.
Why Missouri Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The pieces haven't looked quite right, and Missouri might not be the team many thought it would be. That was evident in an ugly 41-10 loss to Texas A&M, and that kind of loss won't exactly help come resume time. Another loss like that, and that might do it.
18. Ole Miss
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Why Ole Miss Will Make the College Football Playoff
The offense is assumed under Lane Kiffin, but the defense has traveled lightyears this season. Currently, Ole Miss is ranked No. 3 in scoring defense, allowing just a smidge over 10 points per game. Assuming the offense finds another gear, the defense should carry it home.
Why Ole Miss Won't Make the College Football Playoff
Because this team already has two losses, and the loss against Kentucky likely won't age well, we're near the end of the road. This isn't all that complicated. While better competition is coming, one could argue the resume has already been torched before the biggest games are played.
17. Kansas State
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Why Kansas State Will Make the College Football Playoff
Outside of Army, Kansas State's rushing attack stacks up with just about anyone. The Wildcats have the nation's No. 8 rushing attack, led by running backs DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards along with QB Avery Johnson. No matter the opponent, K-State will be a threat on the ground.
Why Kansas Won't Make the College Football Playoff
This team hasn't looked particularly sharp on the road, losing to BYU and also struggling against Tulane and Colorado. The Wildcats still have games at West Virginia and Iowa State—two of the best environments in CFB—and it could spell trouble.
16. Indiana
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Why Indiana Will Make the College Football Playoff
This is one of the best offenses in the nation, powered by one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. Kurtis Rourke had moments at Ohio, but he's certainly having his moment now with his new team. The way Indiana will crash the playoff is by outscoring everyone in its path.
Why Indiana Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The fact that we're dissecting this in sincerity speaks to how far Indiana has come. But the Hoosiers have yet to beat a ranked team, and the next five games will be harder than any game this team has played up until this point. For as good as the season has been, it's a lot to ask.
15. Boise State
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Why Boise State Will Make the College Football Playoff
Ashton. Jeanty. The end.
Why Boise State Won't Make the College Football Playoff
Barring complete chaos, only one Group of Five team is likely to get in. At this point, with a close loss to Oregon in the bag, the Broncos are in as good of shape as anyone. But that can change quickly, and the reliance on one player will make Boise State a bigger target in the future.
14. Texas A&M
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Why Texas A&M Will Make the College Football Playoff
After losing in Week 1, the Aggies have played their way back into playoff contention. And although they'll play two teams ranked in the top 10 (LSU and Texas), both games will be played at home. The remaining road games aren't so bad. A&M is still very much alive, in large part because the journey adds up.
Why Texas A&M Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The SEC is a jumbled mess, and the Aggies likely won't have a chair when the music stops. For as good as Mike Elko has been in Year 1, Texas A&M still has to leapfrog a slew of teams inside its own conference. Also, if it comes down to Notre Dame or Texas A&M—it very well could—will the Aggies get the nod over a team they lost to? Let's call it a gigantic "maybe."
13. BYU
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Why BYU Will Make the College Football Playoff
This team is no longer just a good story. In fact, they seem to be hitting their stride in the Big 12, winning games with both offense and defense. This balance could very well be the driving force behind a playoff push, coupled with an incredible home-field advantage. There is a lot to like.
Why BYU Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The path to the playoff is shockingly clear, but the reality is both simple and unfair: BYU will need to be close to perfect to make the postseason, largely because the brand won't stack up with other potential postseason contenders. With that in mind, it must win the Big 12 to secure a spot. At this point, it's still a lot to ask.
12. Notre Dame
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Why Notre Dame Will Make the College Football Playoff
Not playing in a conference championship game will be an enormous boost. It should also be noted that not playing in this game has worked for Notre Dame before. It could certainly work again. The fact that the schedule has gotten considerably better than it once was, thanks largely to the performance of Navy and Army, only helps this cause as well.
Why Notre Dame Won't Make the College Football Playoff
This team lost to Northern Illinois, and that outcome will haunt the Irish through the rest of the selection process. While Notre Dame has rallied quite nicely and the remaining schedule has improved plenty, that kind of outcome will linger. In terms of resume warts, it's as bad as it gets.
11. Tennessee
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Why Tennessee Will Make the College Football Playoff
This is a top-five defense, which is not something we expected to see. As the offense has endured its struggles, the Vols' defense has been electric. In fact, outside of Texas, no team has allowed fewer yards. It has kept them in games, and it will lead them through a fascinating end of the season.
Why Tennessee Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The offense isn't quite right, and quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who has loads of talent, isn't quite ready. Tennessee has failed to score 20 points in consecutive weeks, and it still plays Alabama and Georgia before season's end. While the team started in such an incredible way, the production simply isn't there.
10. Clemson
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Why Clemson Will Make the College Football Playoff
At long last, the offense is alive. It's been a minute since we've been able to say that and mean it, although it's certainly true right now. Clemson currently has the nation's No. 12 scoring offense, which is a drastic improvement over what we've seen in recent years. QB Cade Klubnik has finally figured it out, and it has changed everything.
Why Clemson Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The Tigers' offense has come alive, although it's come alive against largely inferior competition. Clemson still plays Louisville, at Pitt, at Virginia Tech and South Carolina, and the ACC could wind up sending only one team to the playoff. While things look so much better than they did, time will truly tell.
9. Iowa State
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Why Iowa State Will Make the College Football Playoff
It's time to start taking this team seriously, because it's possible Iowa State will be favored in every regular-season game remaining. The biggest reason? The defense. The Cyclones currently have the nation's No. 5 ranked scoring defense, and there's nothing flukey about it.
Why Iowa State Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The strength of schedule isn't exactly dazzling, and Iowa State still has BYU (and others) to deal with. It's still unclear if the Big 12 has the juice capable of getting multiple teams in the playoff, which means Iowa State will have to be perfect (or close to it) the rest of the way.
8. LSU
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Why LSU Will Make the College Football Playoff
Garrett Nussmeier has quietly become one of the most productive offensive players in the country, and LSU will need him to remain that way to push for a postseason spot. He also has a knack for creating moments when his team needs them, just like we saw against Ole Miss.
Why LSU Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The next month. While LSU deserves a wealth of credit for beating Ole Miss last week, games at Arkansas, at Texas A&M, against Alabama and even at Florida will test a team that has already lost one game. The Tigers can probably still lose another and make the playoff, although things are quite dicey.
7. Alabama
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Why Alabama Will Make the College Football Playoff
The win against Georgia is a nice resume boost, but the performance of QB Jalen Milroe will be why Alabama makes the postseason. Milroe was the reason the Crimson Tide made the playoff last season, and it'll be no different this year. When he's going well, there is no one more exciting in the sport.
Why Alabama Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The defense is currently ranked No. 41 nationally in scoring, which is frankly hard to process. For the many talking points surrounding Alabama—on the heels of a brutal loss to Vanderbilt and a near-loss to South Carolina as a huge favorite—the defense (or lack thereof) is a big reason why.
6. Miami
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Why Miami Will Make the College Football Playoff
Two words: Cam and Ward. The starting quarterback of the Hurricanes has injected new life into a program that desperately needed it, and he will be able to carry this team through the remaining stretch. He might be the best QB in all of college football right now.
Why Miami Won't Make the College Football Playoff
Have you watched the last two games? Yikes. Miami has remained unbeaten, but the defense has allowed 72 combined points over that span. Also, the Hurricanes are playing with fire. One regular season loss and another loss to a team like Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and the Hurricanes could have a resume issue.
5. Georgia
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Why Georgia Will Make the College Football Playoff
Talent. It's that simple. Georgia has recruited better than any program over the past five years, and the abundance of talent on the roster will find a way to put it together, despite not looking like the team we thought we were getting in stretches so far.
Why Georgia Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The Georgia defense has allowed at least 30 points in two of the last three games, and that could very well happen again against Texas this weekend. It's simply not the same elite unit we've grown accustomed to, and major opponents still remain.
4. Ohio State
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Why Ohio State Will Make the College Football Playoff
This is still the most talented team in college football, despite last week's loss. The offense is loaded, the defense is loaded and the Buckeyes, regardless of path or opponent, will have the talent and resume to find their way in.
Why Ohio State Won't Make the College Football Playoff
The schedule still has plenty of bite. Ohio State plays Nebraska, at Penn State, Indiana and Michigan. Although they will likely be favored in every game, having a loss on the books means the room for error has shrunk considerably.
3. Penn State
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Why Penn State Will Make the College Football Playoff
The schedule is about as favorable as Penn State could possibly ask for. The Nittany Lions still play Ohio State, although they will do so at home. The remaining road trips are to Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota, and all of those are very winnable. This team might be favored in every game but one.
Why Penn State Won't Make the College Football Playoff
We still haven't seen a dominant performance, and perhaps that will ultimately bite this group despite having an easy road. Drew Allar has shown promise at QB, but he hasn't been exceptional. As a whole, this team has been good but not great. Time will tell if that will catch up to them.
2. Oregon
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Why Oregon Will Make the College Football Playoff
To date, the Ducks have the best win and arguably the best resume in college football. With wins over Boise State and the Buckeyes already in hand, Oregon has already done plenty through the first eight weeks. One could argue this is the best resume on paper right now.
Why Oregon Won't Make the College Football Playoff
At this point, it would take a lot. Road trips to Wisconsin and Michigan could cause issues for a West Coast team, and maybe the team we saw struggle against Idaho early on will resurface. Consistency issues are about the only thing that could sink a trip to the CFP.
1. Texas
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Why Texas Will Make the College Football Playoff
Where do we start? How about with the defense, which has become the centerpiece of a team loaded with positives. For as good as Texas is on offense, the defense is currently No. 1 in scoring, No. 2 in passing and an enormous factor for a team that suddenly has balance. We knew it would be better, but we didn't know it would be this good.
Why Texas Won't Make the College Football Playoff
Injuries? Fluke outcomes? College football can be weird sometimes, but Texas is positioned to make the playoff, even if it loses to Georgia and Texas A&M down the stretch. This team has been challenged already, suffering injuries at running back and quarterback, and it has responded incredibly well. Anything less than a CFP appearance would be shocking.
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